The scorching Melbourne heat almost go the better of Jannik Sinner but the defending champion was able to make it through. A brain explosion from Djokovic almost saw him defaulted but he too remains in the draw. It means we are one step closer to a dream semi final but it must be noted that both showed signs of vulnerability in their previous matches.
The heat almost got the better of Sinner with the defending champion almost down and out after losing the first set to Spizzirri. He was broken an incredible 6 times as he struggled to deal with the hot conditions – something that has also happened in the past. He will get some reprieve here as this match has been scheduled for the night session but his countryman will be putting up some resistance. Firstly, Darderi has a big serve with 42 aces for the tournament and an impressive 58% of 2nd serve points won. Admittedly, Darderi plays his best tennis on clay with all four of his ATP titles coming on that surface but that is a positive as it highlights his ability to trade blows from the baseline and construct points. As was the case with Spizzirri, he won’t win the match but will be claiming more games than expected.
Musetti was there for the taking but Machac just couldn’t get enough free points on serve. The Italian was able to find rhythm in long baseline exchanges and eventually get the better of the Czech. Replicating that against Fritz will be near impossible as the American leads the tournament in aces (68) and has won 82% of 1st serve points. The H2H may read 3-3 but two of Musetti’s wins have come on clay – a surface where the Fritz serve is nullified. On hard courts, it is 2-0 to Fritz with both victories coming in straight sets. The biggest concern for the Italian is that he has ZERO breaks of serve in four sets against Fritz played on hard courts.
American Ben Shelton has quietly moved through the draw and it is no surprise that he has done so by dominating on serve. He has not dropped serve in his last two matches but maintaining that streak against Ruud will not be easy. The Norwegian leads the H2H 2-1 which includes winning the last two meetings – one on the clay of Barcelona in 2023 and the other on hard courts in Acapulco.
The concern for Shelton in this matchup is that he has been able to generate just one break of serve in the last five sets he has played against Ruud. Moreover, service statistics give us the best gauge on how Ruud is going and he has been excellent with two breaks of serve conceded in 10 sets played so far. Ruud should be favourite so back the +2.5 with confidence!