There are two names of interest in the bottom half of the draw – Sinner and Djokovic. It is hard to see anyone preventing them from a semi final showdown and both are poised to progress easily on Day 5. Tsitsipas, Ruud, Wawrinka and Shelton are among other notables in action and in danger of an early exit if they fail to deliver their best tennis.
Aussie James Duckworth won fewer games and fewer points in his five set win over Prizmic but won the points that mattered most. He will get the opportunity to play in front of a packed Rod Laver Arena but there will be nothing enjoyable about it. Sinner was relentless in his opening round win over Gaston with the Frenchman forced to retire after winning a total of only three games in the first two sets. Duckworth has previously beat Sinner back in 2021. Unfortunately for him, Sinner is a different beast and impossible to hit through. Duckworth does not have a big enough first serve to disrupt the Italian, not does he have a weapon from the baseline that he can rely on for clean winners. Back Under 26.5 games with confidence.
Ten-time champion Novak Djokovic put on a serving clinic against Martinez. The Serbian did not face a single break point, won 93% of 1st serve points and had 14 aces in only 12 service games. He now faces Maestrelli who is part of a growing crop of Italian youngsters. It is a case of 10th time lucky for Maestrelli who had failed to make the main draw of a major in his 9 prior attempts in qualifying. He needed five sets to get past Atmane and if you include his qualifying matches, he has already been on court for almost 9 hours. Will need to serve lights out to stay in touch with Novak but the 24-time Grand Slam winner has other ideas. He already has his eyes set on a semi final clash with Sinner and will want to preserve as much energy as possible. We will be backing Novak to cover the line in all matches leading up to that.
Tsitsipas had to recover after losing the opening set against Mochizuki and had the man from Japan done a better job on break points (1 of 8), the former finalist here may have found himself in a fifth set. Machac on the other hand played a flawless match in a straight sets win over Dimitrov. He thundered down 21 aces in three sets and did not drop serve. The Czech was dominant en-route to winning the Adelaide International and has brought that form with him to Melbourne. The battle against Dimitrov will serve as the ideal preparation for this match as Tsitsipas also has a single-handed backhand. Their only prior battle came in Vienna two years ago with Tsitsipas winning 7-5 in the deciding set. The Greek’s game has fallen to pieces since and the bookies have done the right thing making Machac a clear favourite.
Dominance on serve was the key to their respective first round wins and that theme will likely continue here. The H2H reads 3-2 in Shapovalov’s favour but it has been almost five years since they last faced off. There has been a total of 10 breaks of serve across the last 10 sets they have played which suggests a single break of serve could be enough for either one of them to win a set. Am predicting at least one breaker in a close contest that will last 4 or 5 sets. Overs.
Duckworth v Sinner: Under 26.5 games ($1.87)
Maestrelli v Djokovic: Djokovic -8.5 ($1.57)
Machac v Tsitsipas: Machac -3.5 ($1.83)
Musetti v Sonego: Musetti -1.5 Sets ($1.64)
Spizzirri v Wu: Spizzirri WIN ($1.73)
Baez v Darderi: Baez -2.5 ($1.82)
Khachanov v Basavareddy: Over 38.5 games ($1.87)
Munar v Ruud: Munar +4.5 ($1.87)
Shapovalov v Cilic: Over 38.5 games ($1.75)
Hijikata v Vacherot: Vacherot WIN ($1.55)
Shelton v Sweeny: Over 33.5 games ($1.92)
Van de Zandschulp v Shang: Under 38.5 games ($1.95)
Hurkackz v Quinn: 1st Set Score After 6 games Draw 3-3 ($1.80)
Mensik v Jodar: Mensik WIN ($1.60)
Kopriva v Fritz: Over 31.5 games ($1.83)
Gea v Wawrinka: Wawrinka +1.5 Sets ($1.73)