All eyes will be on two-time defending champion Jannik Sinner on Day 3 and based on what we have seen in the last 2-3 years, he will be relentless in the early rounds. Big servers Ben Shelton and Mpetshi Perricard have drawn tricky opponents to start their campaign while former finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas is desperate to find some form following his worst year on tour since his debut season.
Sinner finished last season in style. Not only did he win the ATP Tour Finals, but he won the tournament without dropping a single set and beating Alcaraz in the final. He now begins his title defence against Gaston – a player that does not possess the power required to trouble him. Their only two clashes came back in 2021, when Sinner was an inferior version of himself, yet the Italian dropped a total of only 9 games in four sets played against the Frenchman. Taking Sinner to cover big handicap starts in the early rounds of the majors has been a profitable play.
America’s Ben Shelton finished in the top 8 last season and it began with a run to the semi finals of the Australian Open. Making the Tour Finals was an achievement but he lost all three round robin matches and now takes on a very dangerous opponent in Ugo Humbert. The Frenchman made the final of the Adelaide International last week and as a fellow left-hander, Shelton loses the advantage of the slider serve in the ad court. Breaks of serve will be hard to come by in this contest and we could see multiple breakers and a lengthy five set contest. Overs.
To say that Tsitsipas has fallen of a cliff is an understatement. This is the man who made the finals here in 2023 and has recorded some of the biggest wins of his career at this tournament. That includes beating Federer, Nadal and Sinner (twice). Things have taken a turn for the worst in the last 18 months where he has compiled a 3-6 record at the majors and has been unable to get past the 2nd round. He was sent packing in the opening round by Michelsen last year and having played Mochizuki recently at the United Cup may work against him. Tsitsipas may have won in straight sets but was able to win only 67% of 1st serve points – a number that should be up around the 80% mark for him. Taking Mochizuki to win and a set and to score an upset win.
There was instant excitement for this matchup as soon as the draw was released. As has been the case for the last fortnight, the bookies have got it completely wrong when it comes to Sebastian Baez. The Argentine began the year by compiling a 3-0 record at the United Cup which included wins over Fritz and Wawrinka. He then went to Auckland where he pulled off a string of upset wins over Nava, Brooksby, Shelton and Giron before losing to Mensik in the final. What you will notice is that he beat several players, who like Mpetshi Perricard, are renowned for their big serve. The big serving Frenchman sounds dangerous on paper but the reality is that he has lost in the 1st Round in 6 of the 8 Grand Slams he has appeared in. This is the BEST BET of the opening round.
Gaston v Sinner: Sinner -10.5 ($1.83)
Shelton v Humbert: Over 40.5 games ($1.73)
Mochizuki v Tsitsipas: Mochizuki To Win A Set – YES ($1.78)
Mpetshi Perricard v Baez: Baez +1.5 ($1.92)
Musetti v Collignon: Over 35.5 games ($1.83)
Khachanov v Michelsen: Khachanov WIN ($1.64)
Royer v Fritz: Royer +1.5 Sets ($3.80)
Garin v Darderi: Over 37.5 games ($1.83)
Fonseca v Spizzirri: Fonseca -3.5 ($1.88)
O’Connell v Basavareddy: Basavareddy WIN ($1.64)
Sweeny v Monfils: Total Sets – 5 Sets ($3.30)
Hurkackz v Bergs: Hurkackz WIN ($1.44)
Dimitrov v Machac: Dimitrov +1.5 Sets ($1.58)
Mensik v Carreno-Busta: Mensik -5.5 ($1.75)
Duckworth v Prizmic: Prizmic WIN ($1.77)
Kopriva v Struff: Struff WIN ($1.44)
Sonego v Taberner: Sets Sonego 3-0 ($1.67)