UFC 323 Preview & Tips | Sunday 7 December

When two fighters as great as this circle each other in the same division, it seems an inevitability they’ll face off more than once. A story repeated across many divisions and many eras, Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan are yet another pair of heated rivals who dislike each other so much they would do battle for free. Fortunately for everyone involved, they get to compete for a world title and broadcast the elite showdown to the world.

Dvalishvili enters UFC 323 as not only the reigning champion, but a divisional boogeyman. He hasn’t lost in MMA since 2018 and his run to the title was nothing short of remarkable. Beating everyone in the division until he couldn’t be ignored, Dvalishvili is still following the same trend – just with a belt in hand.

Since snatching the title over Sean O’Malley late last year, the champion has maintained an absurd pace and defended his belt three times in 2025 already. That stat would be impressive on its own but Dvalishvili notched those defenses over over Umar Nurmagomedov, O’Malley, and most recently Cory Sandhagen.

The wins have only cemented the kind of offensive juggernaut Merab Dvalishvili has become. Hailing from Georgia and owning a swath of experience in martial arts like Sambo, Judo, and wrestling, he predictably stands out as a takedown specialist.

Owning records for successful takedowns, Dvalishvili has been able to ground every single UFC opponent he’s ever faced except one (Jose Aldo). Notably, Dvalishvili has also been bringing that frenzied passion to his striking.

Though he is rarely regarded for his improvements on the front, Dvalishvili has grown significantly as a striker. His primary directive is still forcing his opponents to fend off takedowns but he is garnering more success than ever on the feet; a strong indicator of his growing stylistic cohesion.

Seeking his fourth title defense in a calendar year, Dvalishvili is a remarkable fighter with virtually no peer in the division. That may include Petr Yan, a man the Georgian has already faced and beaten across a five-round bout.

Yan blamed a hand injury for his lackluster performance. Three victories and nearly as many years later, Yan has one more chance at the divisional king. For his part, Yan is widely regarded as one of the most technically savvy strikers in the UFC, let alone the division.

Adept from both stances and superb from all ranges, Yan is truly a tremendous striker who lives up to his hype in that department. It takes some time for him to get going, but once Yan is ramped up the offensive output is impressive to say the least.

That said, the vaunted striker is a slow starter always and forever. He enjoys working off a base of information collected in the opening minutes. This has led to Yan dropping the first round in the vast majority of his recent outings, even in bouts he otherwise handily won.

This will do him no favors as he looks to stave off a persistent and familiar foe in Dvalishvili. The last time these two met, it was nearly 50 takedown attempts and over 400 strikes thrown that helped carry the victor over the finish line.

Some have doubted Dvalishvili’s ability to maintain that kind of work rate in subsequent outings but time and time again he has proven he can and will. With both relatively healthy and focused on an opponent they genuinely dislike, I expect both to come out aggressively pursuing their game plan.

For Dvalishvili, that means more of what he’s already doing. He has been hurt on occasion but defensively and otherwise he has made strides as a striker. I don’t expect him to seek out a full-fledged kickboxing bout with Yan, but the moments he does spend on the feet with Yan are doubtful to be catastrophic.

A fighter like Yan enjoys nothing more than fighting at his own pace and picking foes apart with the knowledge he secured during the bout. Dvalishvili allows few such privileges and certainly won’t extend kindness to Yan at UFC 323. Look for the dominant champion to stamp out his rivalry and move into contention as one of the greatest titleholders of all-time.

Bet: Dvalishvili Wins By Points @ $1.50
Same Game Multi: Dvalishvili Head To Head + Dvalishvili 8+ Takedowns

Alexandre Pantoja v Joshua Van

Since snatching up the flyweight title in 2023, the reign of Alexandre Pantoja has been carving out an argument as one of the best in the division’s history. With four defenses in the books, Pantoja has finally been fulfilling the potential that he has shown throughout much of his career.

The proud Brazilian has worked and fought hard to get to this point and today he owns arguably the best resume in the division. At 35 years old and unbeaten since 2020, Pantoja still has more to offer in his impressive run.

A grappling savant noted as one of the best back-taking specialists in the organization, Pantoja is aggressive, persistent, and dedicated to his game plan. What is his typical game plan? Putting opponents on their heels.

Pantoja has always been a quick starter with serious finishing upside but his frenzied pace did draw some accusations of energy misuse. Unlike most fighters who scale down their offense to match their conditioning, Pantoja has upgraded his pace to apply across five rounds and can maintain it better than ever.

There is a spotlight justifiably cast on Pantoja’s impressive grappling and effective wrestling but to singularly focus on that would ignore the real developments he has made as a striker. Pantoja doesn’t present as a traditional striker but his output on the feet works particularly well within his style.

Thunderous kicks to the body and legs have become a regular weapon for Pantoja, allowing him to threaten at all ranges. If fighters stay on the outside, he’ll drop heavy kicks in before charging people down. If they elect to stand within punching distance, the champion will wrap them up and chase takedowns.

The durability Pantoja brings to the table helps pad the difference for defensive shortcomings, but there’s no discounting the impact of his distance management and consistent application of pressure.

On the other end of the spectrum is a high-flying prospect attempting to put his name in history books. If he wins the title this weekend, Joshua Van would be the second youngest champion in UFC history only behind Jon Jones.

Van has kept a manic rate of activity since his UFC debut in 2023. His appearance at UFC 323 will mark his 10th bout across a 30-month span. His most recent outing was his most significant, as he picked up a decision over longtime veteran Brandon Royval.

This weekend will be the biggest test of Van’s career and a particularly challenging stylistic match-up, but there’s no doubting his ability to compete at elite levels. The #1 ranked contender is a tremendous striker, bringing classically schooled hands to every fight.

Van continues to spend time at boxing gyms as part of his training and it continues to pay dividends inside the cage. Offensively, Van is a menace who can attack the head or the body with sharp boxing.

He tends to get hit a bit too often but that could be blamed more on his offensive focus than an absent or particularly negligent defense. Despite his youth at only 24-years-old, Van can show flashes of brilliance beyond his years. The catalyst for his best performances seem to be discipline though, as he can fall out of place in frenzied bouts.

Wavering confidence and a rapidly expiring clock forced catastrophic error against Charles Johnson but Van does deserve credit for pulling things together and scraping out victory in challenging subsequent bouts.

The Myanmar representative scrambles well and has proven a difficult man to consistently take or hold down but UFC 323 represents a level of competition he’s never dealt with. Thus far, every test has been passed for Van but this seems to be a step slightly too large.

Naturally, Van is quick and sharp enough to procure some success on the feet. But initiating enough offense to win rounds while staying upright is another question entirely. Van is a strong fighter who will put up his best effort but I doubt he has the mobility and experience to keep the champion off of him all night.

A momentous night for Joshua Van is sure to arrive in the coming years but UFC 323 should remain a showcase for the reigning champion. Look for Pantoja to do what he does best by forcing Van onto the back foot, stifling his striking, and dragging him into quick sand.

Bet: Pantoja Wins By KO/TKO or Submission @ $2.15

7-1 in the UFC and 17-1 overall, Tatsuro Taira has been wildly impressive for a man who only turns 26 years old next month. Taira suffered that singular defeat at the hands of Brandon Royval late last year but the showing wasn’t a bad one and Taira has already since rebounded.

Most recently, he forced a tap from Hyun Sung Park with a particularly unpleasant jaw crank. A noted grappling specialist with a particular affinity for taking the back, Taira has proven himself a creative, savvy, and aggressive grappler.

Like many before him, Taira has needed to refine his takedown ability as his level of competition rises. To this point, he’s met the challenge head-on and fared quite well. He averages over three takedowns a fight; the stat is made more interesting when one considers Taira has ended 5 of his 7 victories in the UFC.

There’s no doubting Taira has improved on the offensive wrestling front but his striking developments are also worth shining a spotlight on. Taira lacks power but his technique is coming along very nicely. He throws straight punches, maintains a fairly stable stance, and is a bit quicker and better-timed than his opponents seem to expect.

Ultimately most roads lead to grappling for the Japanese submission specialist and this weekend is unlikely to be any different. The task is a bit taller though, as Taira will jump from beating 10-0 Hyun Sung Park to battling former champion Brandon Moreno.

The pride of Mexico and a longtime fan favorite, Moreno is riding a two-fight win streak into this contest. Consecutive decision victories over Amir Albazi and Steve Erceg have helped right the ship, with Moreno outputting better performances in recent outings.

Infamously, the former champion has not been entirely consistent when he enters the cage. Moreno is skilled in every area but his striking draws the most attention. Thudding kicks are part of his arsenal but his hands get the focus, with sharp, deceptively concussive boxing a valued asset.

Moreno’s work rate has fallen a bit in recent years but his accuracy and overall efficacy has arguably improved. He does his best work when staying engaged and active but has shown a tendency to fall into lulls and let his foes catch up a bit.

At UFC 323, Moreno will likely be able to fight at his preferred pace so long as he stays upright. Heavy low kicks have been an effective tool for Moreno in the past and his foe this weekend has shown some difficulties checking those kicks.

If Moreno stays on his feet, the advantages in power and experience he holds should be enough to stay ahead of Taira. Though the agile youngster is technically sound and owns a solid gas tank, I’m doubtful he will be able to drag Moreno to the mat. Look for the Mexican underdog to upset the odds again, putting in a plucky and high-effort win over three rounds.

Bet: Moreno Head To Head @ $2.02

Things continue to move quickly for the young Payton Talbott and this weekend will mark his third appearance of the year. Talbott has so far split a pair of fights across the year but enters UFC 323 with some momentum after securing a decision win over Felipe Lima a bit over five months ago.

The win was a small upset and a sorely needed realignment after falling victim to Raoni Barcelos in January. At only 27 years old, Talbott still has a lot of time and room to grow but isn’t being given many easy outings.

Talbott is a sharp striker with quick hands and acute instincts but has had his takedown defense exploited in the past. That isn’t to say he’s a poor defensive wrestler – in fact, he works through his anti-wrestling processes quite well – but it’s clearly the area he is most vulnerable.

Hype and expectations are high for Talbott but for good reason. The hard-hitting upstart has looked smooth in striking exchanges and most importantly, he defends and scrambles well against competent wrestlers.

That defensive acumen will be needed when he steps into the cage against the greatest test of his career. An Olympic medalist in wrestling and former world champion, Henry Cejudo is arguably fighting for his career at UFC 323.

The 38-year-old won the flyweight belt in 2018 and emphatically defended it soon after. The following year, he moved up to bantamweight and did the exact same thing. But that version of Cejudo hasn’t made an appearance in a while and the fighter we’re left with is running rough with a high odometer.

There’s no taking away a lifetime of success at pinnacle levels but Cejudo rides a three-fight losing streak into the weekend. Beyond the defeats themselves, the trend of Cejudo’s performances degrading in each subsequent outing is a great concern.

In his most recent showing – a decisive loss to Song Yadong – Cejudo shot only three times across three rounds, succeeding on no attempts. Yadong is a strong, experienced fighter who trains at a wrestling-focused camp but it stands to reason Payton Talbott will seek out a similar game plan.

At this stage, Cejudo seems ill equipped to push the kind of pace, particularly with takedowns, that is necessary to grind out victory here. Slowing down on the feet and becoming less effective as a wrestler, Cejudo may run out of ideas quickly if he can’t find early success with his initial takedown attempts.

Bet: Talbott Wins By Points @ $2.05

Without a win since 2022 and now 42 years old, it’s easy to question how much Jan Blachowicz has left in the tank but what shows on paper isn’t the whole story. Owner of one of the best resumes in the light heavyweight division, Blachowicz has been facing off with elite opposition almost exclusively for the past five years.

He won the vacant title in 2020, defending it once the following year, but has struggled to maintain his footing since. Most recently, Blachowicz broke an extended layoff with a decision loss to Carlos Ulberg.

Blachowicz has not been getting utterly dominated and finished but he is clearly slowing down a bit as a fighter. Nonetheless, Blachowicz still owns a well-rounded skill set refined by years of experience at high levels.

His “Polish Power” has carried him to a number of gritty victories and his versatility will weigh heavily on the result of this bout. His ability to wear opponents down with low kicks, takedowns, or anything else his foe handily presents is a critical asset as he takes on a hard-charging knockout artist in Bogdan Guskov.

Winner of his last four with each generating a new highlight, Guskov quickly amassed a reputation as a dangerous, if crude juggernaut. Every punch thrown is with maximal impetus and there’s no questioning his knockout power.

Guskov knows he hits hard and he knows he doesn’t need a lot of punches to end a night. He isn’t the savviest fighter and can fall victim to simple set-ups by cleaner strikers, but he’s always deadly. Willing to take a punch to give one back, Guskov is generally the harder hitter and happy to test his might against his foe’s.

Historically, Jan Blachowicz has held up very well. He’ll need every ounce of durability to get him by the early portion before his experience can outweigh a relative human semi-truck in Guskov. Low kicks are likely to find a home but I believe Blachowicz will have his best success putting Guskov on his back.

Blachowicz is known as a solid kickboxer but a simple route to victory exists for the Pole. If he manages to drag Guskov down early and often, it’ll take the wind out of the younger man’s sails and assure a clean victory for the veteran.

Bet: Blachowicz Head To Head @ $1.75