Atlanta +3.5 (at Tampa Bay)
Baker Mayfield is an awful 7-20 against the spread as a home favourite while underdogs of a field goal or more off a 20-plus loss have a near 60% cover record.
Washington +2.5 (at NY Giants)
Teams off being shutout cover at 62.5% while teams who win less than 40% of games off a loss of 30-plus cover at 59%.
LA Chargers +4.5 (at Kansas City)
Jim Harbaugh has covered all five against Andy Reid while the Chiefs have covered just nine of their last 26.
Dallas -6.5 (v Minnesota)
The Vikings are a big lay team with teams off a home shutout covering at just 38% the following game while home favourites of less than a touchdown are 61-41-2 against the spread on Sunday Night Football.
Joe Burrow is an elite play as an underdog going 18-2 against the number as an underdog while Lamar Jackson has covered just five of 14 division games off a loss.
Under 41.5 Arizona-Houston
The Texans are the preeminent under team in the NFL, going 10-3 under this year, with CJ Stroud 17-5 under in home games.
Under 41.5 LA Chargers-Kansas City
The under is 79-40 in Chiefs games as a home favourite since 2010 while the under is 68-35 when the Chargers are off a win.
Under 41.5 Miami-Pittsburgh
The under hits at 61% in non-Thursday primetime games while the under has hit in 59% of Steelers games over the last decade.
Atlanta +3.5 (at Tampa Bay)
Baker Mayfield is an awful 7-20 against the spread as a home favourite while underdogs of a field goal or more off a 20-plus loss have a near 60% cover record.
Dallas -6.5 (v Minnesota)
The Vikings are a big lay team with teams off a home shutout covering at just 38% the following game while home favourites of less than a touchdown are 61-41-2 against the spread on Sunday Night Football.
Under 41.5 Miami-Pittsburgh
The under hits at 61% in non-Thursday primetime games while the under has hit in 59% of Steelers games over the last decade.
The Commanders and Chargers are two of the best bets of the week while the Bengals are the best underdog play of the week. The Raiders are a bet with teams off five-plus turnovers like the Eagles are 12-24-1 against the spread.
The Lions have covered 24 of 34 against winning teams. Rookie QBs like Cam Ward getting 6.5 or more cover at just 41%. The Panthers have not covered any of their last 11 as a favourite dating back to 2021.
Speedster Christian Watson has opened up the Packers offense as a deep treat. He has five touchdowns in his last four games including a double against the Bears. He is clearly Jordan Love’s favourite and most reliable target.
Kayshon Boutte has five touchdowns in his last six games and is an utterly ridiculous price this week. George Kittle has four touchdowns in his last six games. Jahmyr Gibbs has 16 touchdowns this season.
Robinson has topped 70 rush yards in his last five games. Pitts has hit 59 yards six times this season with hauls of 82 and 90 yards the last two weeks. Irving has at least 20 receiving yards in his last five games.