With packed bags and fueled jets, the UFC lands in the Ali Bin Hamad al-Attiyah Arena in Doha, Qatar for a showcase event. Former champions, title challengers, and burgeoning contenders alike all align this weekend for a stacked 14-fight card at UFC Fight Night 265.
Things haven’t gone exactly according to the plan of Arman Tsarukyan but that hasn’t impacted his ability to succeed in the meantime. Tsarukyan has been sitting on the MMA shelf since losing a title opportunity due to a back injury but he has managed to stay busy competing in submission grappling events throughout 2025.
The Russian hasn’t fought in over a year and a half but shouldn’t miss much of a step coming back this weekend. Fittingly headlining the event, Tsarukyan is a stone’s throw from a(nother) title shot – though this time it would be against new king Ilia Topuria.
For his part, Tsarukyan has stayed true to his roots in and out of the cage. A tremendous grappler and tenacious wrestler, Tsarukyan is one of the most talented fighters in the division when it comes to tie-ups.
Tsarukyan has done well to made clear strides in his striking proficiency but ultimately most of his roads lead to grappling. Recent outings have seen him approach grappling a bit more carefully but this weekend should allow for him to pursue the ground game with full commitment.
Naturally, Dan Hooker will be seeking to keep things on the feet where he can continue torturing wrestlers. Since his most recent defeat in 2022, Hooker has turned things around and strung together three straight wins.
Two of those victories were upsets over Jalin Turner and Mateusz Gamrot, the latter of which proved an impressive feather in the cap. Fending off 15 takedowns attempts and being grounded on five in the process, Hooker still managed to do enough damage to get his hand raised by split decision.
The unlikely win is a significant turning point for the longtime veteran. Hooker has spent over a decade, the majority of his career, in the UFC and always struggled to get ahead of opponents with a dogged pursuit of grappling.
35-years-old and in the latter stages of a tumultuous career, it’s hard to put into words how much punishment Dan Hooker has absorbed throughout. Despite that, Hooker still outputs heavy volume on the feet, fights hard for every minute, and maintains more durability than one would expect.
Hooker still eats leather like it’s part of a balanced daily diet but surely has a chance to disrupt Tsarukyan for every minute these two are standing. That said, those minutes would seem to be few and far between if Tsarukyan has his way.
There is no doubt Hooker will put up his best effort in arguably the biggest fight of his career. A win this weekend would elevate Hooker to heights he’s never before been. But the odds seem too great for him to avoid being handled for the majority of this contest.
Arman Tsarukyan is not unbreakable but has the gas tank and skill necessary to keep driving Hooker to the mat. I expect a grueling but not entirely shocking fight to unfold here, as Hooker gives a solid account of himself but ultimately falls prey to the consistency of Tsarukyan.
Love him or hate him, Ian Machado Garry is proving a formidable force in the welterweight division. A win over Carlos Prates earlier this year has aged superbly and Garry now finds himself favored in another huge fight.
It wouldn’t be a stretch to say all of Machado Garry’s recent bouts have been vital as the #6 ranked contender vies for a title shot. 9-1 in the UFC, the Irishman’s lone defeat came at the hands of Shavkat Rakhmonov in a narrow affair.
The appropriately worldly Machado Garry is well-rounded and adaptable in a manner reflecting his diverse life. To say that he excels where others falter is a slight exaggeration but speaks to the type of game planning Machado Garry typically exhibits.
An intelligent and thoughtful fighter inside the cage, Machado Garry is capable of winning a fight anywhere he needs to. Machado Garry is best known for his mobility and quick, accurate striking but his versatility resulted in grappling-focused wins over dynamos like Michael Page and the aforementioned Prates.
Machado Garry is doing some of the best work of his career but this weekend represents a radically different kind of match-up he hasn’t had to deal with in quite a while. Belal Muhammad may not be remembered as a longtime champion but he still brings vaunted wrestling to the table.
Muhammad had an impressive run en route to collecting the welterweight title off Leon Edwards but he wasn’t able to hold onto it long, losing to Jack Della Maddalena in his first defense. Perhaps it’s some solace for Muhammad that the belt has changed hands three times in its last three appearances.
At 37-years-old it would be easy to question if Muhammad is ready to make a new run to the title, but he seems as determined as ever. Zeal will only go so far, though. Muhammad infamously lacked an early commitment to wrestling in his last outing and to do so again would invite disaster.
Developments have been made in Muhammad’s striking but he lacks power and defensively presents a hittable, if resilient, target. Muhammad has enjoyed his best success when driving for takedowns early and sticking to the pursuit throughout the bout.
UFC Fight Night 265 is a make-or-break fight for Belal Muhammad and I anticipate he’ll put his best skills in front. The real question lies in how much success Muhammad will have shooting, particularly if he poses little threat to Machado Garry on the feet.
With only three rounds to work, it’s imperative Muhammad is pushing a pace from the jump. If he fails to, his foe is liable to run away with minutes. But imposing wrestling on Machado Garry is easier said than done. Even Rakhmonov sought out ten attempts, succeeding on only two.
It’s clear Machado Garry will own advantages on the feet in practically every form. If he manages to stay there and lure Muhammad into a kickboxing match, don’t be surprised if the Irishman looks to break the rhythm with his own takedown attempts.
Diversity and speed weigh too heavy in the favor of Ian Machado Garry to doubt him this weekend. Expect the welterweight title picture is get even more competitive when Machado Garry collects a victory this weekend and climbs in the rankings.
2-2 in his last four and 8-7 in the UFC overall, there’s something to be said about the relative consistency of Volkan Oezdemir. The one-time title challenger has shared the cage with a shocking number of elites, even going three rounds with Carlos Ulberg 12 months ago.
Oezdemir may not be a title contender anymore but his skills easily carry him through negligent opposition. The Swiss fighter may not strike as the biggest puncher in the division but he can be trusted to output volume and set up his offense fairly well.
Even in losing efforts, Oezdemir makes a solid account of himself any time he can wrest some momentum. Fairly well-conditioned and more durable than he’s given credit for, Oezdemir can be surprisingly tricky.
This was proven even in his most recent outing as he stayed relevant with Carlos Ulberg in every round, but struggled to keep up with the difference in punching power and physicality. Oezdemir faces a similarly challenging physical threat this weekend, but he will not have to worry about quite as much refined kickboxing coming from Alonzo Menifield.
Menifield is riding a two-fight win streak that includes a significant upset over Oumar Sy five months ago. The tepid bout was narrowly contested but Menifield’s offense was a touch heavier, tipping the scales in his favor after three rounds.
For his part, Menifield has done well to grow as a fighter after kicking off his career a relative brute. He was only 7-0 when he made his UFC debut as a raw but physically imposing powerhouse. A string of knockouts followed but experience has since moderated Menifield.
To this day he continues to lean hard on the physical advantages he carries into the cage, but he doesn’t use it to force knockouts. Wrestling and control time have been bigger parts of Menifield’s game in recent years and he may look to implement a similarly stifling style against a quicker foe in Volkan Oezdemir.
While Menifield has improved on multiple fronts over the years, there is cause for concern with his consistently low punch output. Though Menifield will pose a clear knockout threat to Oezdemir, the greater volume and offensive variety should be coming from native of Switzerland.
Myktybek Orolbai hasn’t been able to compete quite as much as he may prefer but he has been making solid use of the time he does spend inside the cage. Orolbai collected a quick win over Tofiq Musayev a few months and now seeks to close out the year with a perfect record.
3-1 in the UFC since making his organizational debut two years ago, Orolbai’s lone defeat in that span came in a blistering war with Mateusz Rebecki. For his part, Orolbai held up well and put on one of the best fights of the year.
Orolbai doesn’t shy away from a brawl but did exhibit a cleaner game plan in his most recent appearance. Orolbai is offensively diverse and does his best work when mixing up his skills. It’s when he gets caught up in fireworks, indulging lesser-skilled foes in battles of attrition.
Powerful, well-conditioned, and tenacious; Orolbai will serve as a fitting welcome to the welterweight division for Sweden’s Jack Hermansson. 1-2 in his last three, Hermansson has spent his career competing at middleweight but found himself outgunned in recent outings.
Hermansson has alternated wins and losses dating back to 2019 and this move down in weight seems a last-ditch effort for the 37-year-old. Hermansson is a skilled fighter developed with years of experience and careful training out of his camps in Norway.
Though he may find himself physically better-suited to this division, Hermansson will still have his hands full with a stylistic match-up he historically struggles with. Hermansson is technically sharp and reasonably mobile but as he approaches his forth decade, Hermansson’s durability is showing signs of waning.
The fight IQ of Hermansson is one of his biggest assets but this contest seems one destined to turn into a scrap. Hermansson will open the bout looking to jab, move, and score points efficiently but it should only be a matter of time before Orolbai traps him and begins to do some real damage.
It stands to reason Hermansson will deploy every tool at his disposal to stifle the offense of Orolbai. Takedowns are likely to be attempted by the Swede but Orolbai seems strong and technically proficient enough to handle tie-ups.
Look for the early tension to be broken with vicious offense, paving the way for the Kyrgyz representative to collect another victory and potentially another bonus.
Entering a bout on about one-week notice and having just competed three weeks ago are typically circumstances negative enough to warrant underdog status. Such is not the case for the “Salsa Boy”, who has been set as the betting favorite for his fifth bout of 2025.
3-1 this calendar year, Cortes-Acosta exhibited more activity and fight IQ than ever before. At 34-years-old, he’s hitting his peak as a fighter and doing his best to craft a genuine path to the heavyweight elites.
Any fight fan that has been paying attention this year will know what Waldo Cortes-Acosta brings to the table. Speedier than expected, more active than anticipated, and more mobile than he looks, Cortes-Acosta has proven a surprisingly agile threat in a division full of plodders.
He lacks the raw punching power that some of his peers share but he makes up for it with speed. This combines well with his technical prowess, allowing him to dictate exchanges and largely control the tempo of his bouts.
On the other end of the cage, Shamil Gaziev brings a heavier approach to his bouts. Gaziev has power in both hands and puts an abundance of faith into his strength but his success tends to be front-loaded. Gaziev has been taken into deep waters on only a handful of occasions but clearly struggles when he finds himself in longer bouts.
Gaziev’s physicality is notable and cannot be ignored but he has largely conducted himself as a brute who needs to end things early or suffer down the stretch. This approach pays dividends against lower-tier opposition that cannot hold up to or avoid his offense but runs less smoothly against well-prepared contenders.
This is the type of match-up that Waldo Cortes-Acosta is growing accustomed to. A stronger, slower opponent with heavy hands is always a danger but Cortes-Acosta stays in shape, stays active, and should be able to stay ahead of Gaziev all night.
All Tips:
Tsarukyan v Hooker: Tsarukyan Wins By Decision
Machado Garry v Muhammad: Machado Garry Wins By Decision
Oezdemir v Menifield: Oezdemir Head To Head
Orolbai v Hermansson: Orolbai Wins By KO/TKO or Submission
Cortes-Acosta v Gaziev: Cortes-Acosta Head To Head
Ulanbekov v Horiguchi: Horiguchi Head To Head
Riley v Grad: Grad Head To Head
Izagakhmaev v Dalby: Izagakhmaev Wins By Decision
Almabayev v Perez: Perez Wins By KO/TKO or Submission
Yakhyaev v Cerqueira: Yakhyaev Wins By KO/TKO or Submission
Topuria v Almakhan: Topuria Wins By Decision
Naurdiev v Loder: Naurdiev Wins By KO/TKO or Submission
Aliev v Rock: Rock Head To Head
Freeman v Bujlo: Freeman Wins By KO/TKO or Submission