Detroit -2.5 (v Green Bay)
The Lions have covered 14 of their last 17 against the Packers and are in a great spot with 20 covers in their last 25 off a non-cover.
Kansas City -3.5 (at Dallas)
Patrick Mahomes is 19-3 when playing a team on short rest while Dak Prescott is 17-36 against the spread against a winning team. This is a huge bounceback spot for the Chiefs.
Carolina +10.5 (v LA Rams)
Home underdogs pre-bye Week 8 or after cover at a clip of 65.6% while the Panthers have covered nine of 12 pre-bye, making the Panthers a great cover bet.
Denver -6.5 (at Washington)
Denver have been an elite team coming out of their bye with 20 covers in their last 26 while this is a nice spot to be against Washington with Sunday Night Football teams off a loss 15-28 against the spread when playing a team off a win.
Mike Tomlin is 38-19 against the spread as a single digit underdog and the Steelers are 20-12 against the number against winning teams, making Pittsburgh a nice value play against an inconsistent Bills outfit.
Under 52.5 Cincinnati-Baltimore
The under is 12-6 in Thanksgiving night games and with high winds expected and the under hitting in 62% of high wind games, the under looks a super bet.
Under 41.5 Las Vegas-LA Chargers
The under hits at 67.3% when a team comes out of its bye off an upset loss and 67.6% when a team is out of a bye off conceding 35-plus – with the Chargers hitting both trends.
Under 46.5 NY Giants-New England
The under has hit in 63.5% of Giants games since 2020 with both teams in under spots pre-bye with the Pats 6-2 to the under with a bye on the horizon and the Giants 8-1 to the under in the same spot.
Detroit -2.5 (v Green Bay)
The Lions have covered 14 of their last 17 against the Packers and are in a great spot with 20 covers in their last 25 off a non-cover.
Kansas City -3.5 (at Dallas)
Patrick Mahomes is 19-3 when playing a team on short rest while Dak Prescott is 17-36 against the spread against a winning team. This is a huge bounceback spot for the Chiefs.
Under 52.5 Cincinnati-Baltimore
The under is 12-6 in Thanksgiving night games and with high winds expected and the under hitting in 62% of high wind games, the under looks a super bet.
Philadelphia -6.5 (v Chicago)
Teams like Philadelphia who were shut out as a favourite in the second half cover at 60% the following week while rookie coaches like Ben Johnson of the Bears off a win cover at 39.7%.
Denver -6.5 (at Washington)
Denver have been an elite team coming out of their bye with 20 covers in their last 26 while this is a nice spot to be against Washington with Sunday Night Football teams off a loss 15-28 against the spread when playing a team off a win.
Under 46.5 NY Giants-New England
The under has hit in 63.5% of Giants games since 2020 with both teams in under spots pre-bye with the Pats 6-2 to the under with a bye on the horizon and the Giants 8-1 to the under in the same spot.
All three are listed amongst the best bets and best totals.
Carolina are one of the best bets of Week 13. Rookie coaches off a win cover at less than 40% making the Jags a lay team. Arizona cover at 62% as an underdog.
Sam Darnold is 8-14-1 against the spread v losing teams so happy to take on Seattle. The Steelers are listed as the best underdog so getting all around the plus while the under in the AFC West clash is one of the best totals of the week.
Mahomes has four rushing touchdowns on the board already this year while he showed real intent to run against the Colts with the Chiefs in desperate need for a win – and they need to keep winning.
Jahmyr Gibbs has 13 touchdowns this year including six in his last three games. Kareem Hunt has scored in four straight games. Derrick Henry has five touchdowns in five games post-bye.
Gibbs is airborne with six touchdowns in his last three games. St Brown has topped eight catches in four of his lat seven and has nine touchdowns this year.