New England -13.5 (v NY Jets)
Home teams on Thursday Night Football Week 9 and beyond cover at 60% while Pats coach Mike Vrabel is 27-16-1 against the spread against teams under .500.
Minnesota -2.5 (v Chicago)
Rookie QBs cover at 73.6% when at home so this is a great spot for JJ McCarthy while Chicago have coveted just seven of 32 against the NFC North.
Denver +4.5 (v Kansas City)
Pre-bye teams playing a division rival cover at 71% while teams off scoring 12 or fewer and winning cover at 66% the following week.
Las Vegas +3.5 (v Dallas)
Teams off conceding 12 or fewer and losing are on a 22-6 cover run the following week while teams who scored seven or fewer points and had 10 or fewer first downs cover at 65%.
Teams who have lost four straight cover at 64% when playing a non-conference opponent, putting the Commanders in a great betting spot this week.
Over 37.5 Houston-Tennessee
The over hits at 60% when a team is off their bye like the Titans and the total is less than 40 while the over is 26-8 this year when teams play their backup QB.
Under 44.5 Kansas City-Denver
The under hits 71% when teams are heading into a bye playing a division rival while it has hit in nine of the last 12 Bo Nix games.
Under 50.5 Dallas-Las Vegas
The under hits at 74% when there is a home underdog on Monday Night Football while it hits at 69% when a road team is off a bye.
New England -13.5 (v NY Jets)
Home teams on Thursday Night Football Week 9 and beyond cover at 60% while Pats coach Mike Vrabel is 27-16-1 against the spread against teams under .500.
Philadelphia -3 (v Detroit)
Teams off winning when scoring 12 or fewer cover at 66% while high-octane offenses like the Lions averaging 30ppg are an awful 6-19 against the spread on Sunday Night Football.
Las Vegas +3.5 (v Dallas)
Teams off conceding 12 or fewer and losing are on a 22-6 cover run the following week while teams who scored seven or fewer points and had 10 or fewer first downs cover at 65%.
The Vikings are one of the best bets of the week. Teams off allowing 12 or fewer and losing are 22-6 against the spread the next week so the Packers are the play. Joe Flacco has covered eight of 11 against Mike Tomlin, making the Bengals a nice play.
Sean McVay has dominated the Seahawks with 11 covers in the last 13 meetings. Rookie QBs getting 6.5 or more cover at just 41% so chips out the Browns making the Ravens a bet. The Broncos are one of the best bets of the week.
Mark Andrews has been very good close to the endzone of late with three touchdowns in his last two games. The Browns have conceded a receiving touchdown in half of their games this season.
Josh Jacobs has nine touchdowns in his last six games. Tee Higgins has four touchdowns the last three weeks. Davante Adams has nine touchdowns in nine games.
Chase has at least 10 catches in three of his last four games. Higgins has topped 60-plus in three of his last four.