UFC 320 Preview & Tips | Sunday 5 October

It’s been a bit of an odd run to the top for Magomed Ankalaev but he ended up in the right spot one way or another. Ankalaev missed an opportunity to be crowned champion in 2022 but I’m inclined to believe he and Alex Pereira would eventually face off at the top of the division no matter who held the belt.

The native of Dagestan has been largely dominant throughout his career, even if it hasn’t always been terribly exciting. One of the most skilled fighters in the division, Ankalaev is careful with his tools and fights at a moderated pace.

Despite the reputation of his homeland, Ankalaev is actually a refined striker who leans on wrestling as merely a supplement. Ankalaev is not an overeager fighter but that is not due to lacking conditioning but rather a dedication to efficiency. In fact, Ankalaev does a particularly good job of staying just ahead of his opposition.

His well-timed offense served him well when facing Alex Pereira the first time around. A cerebral five-round contest, Ankalaev tipped the scales with slightly more effective offense and a bit more activity, though they struggled to meaningfully separate from each other in any area.

On the topic of takedowns, Ankalaev did shoot for a dozen but failed on all. However, it wouldn’t be fair to say Ankalaev intended to finish all of those attempts and mixing up his offense did well to stifle the persistent danger of Pereira.

At his core, Pereira has also fallen into a rather quiet pattern of striking. His punching power has ended contests in with a bang but he isn’t impatient when setting the stage for that finish. If it doesn’t happen, Pereira won’t rush it. This was no clearer than when he fell behind Ankalaev and struggled to mount consistent offense.

A former professional kickboxing champion, Pereira has done well to round out his skills and stay upright the majority of the time. Such a vaunted striker defending nearly 80% of takedown attempts is an impressive feat and that ratio is likely to be improved by Tuesday morning.

However, it was largely a kickboxing bout that Pereira lost his belt in earlier this year. Rumors immediately crashed in, suggesting Pereira was injured, sapped, or otherwise just not himself. But that takes something away from Magomed Ankalaev, who put on a solid showing and rightfully took the belt.

The Brazilian is a powerful striker but failed to assert that strength on Ankalaev. In fact, Pereira was the one impacted more consistently than the other way around. Low kicks proved to be effective for Pereira but he failed to build on that success, giving up bigger moments to the then-challenger.

Now 38-years-old, Pereira has developed a comfort with his stardom as his fighting career enters its final stages. Significant improvements on the side of Pereira are unlikely, but it’s hard to believe he will charge his way to a victory this time by doing much of the same.

The reign of Pereira generated tremendous highlights but it is the stable consistency of Ankalaev that should tip the scales yet again. Having spent five rounds together already, I expect less of a feeling-out process before these two start establishing their offense. A better fight may make way for a better performance that sees Ankalaev close his rivalry with Pereira in emphatic fashion.

Bet: Ankalaev Wins By KO/TKO @ $3.50
Same Game Multi: Ankalaev Head To Head + Ankalaev 80+ Strikes Landed

Now 34-years-old and riding a 13-fight win streak, the championship reign of Merab Dvalishvili has felt like an inevitability for a while. Known as “The Machine”, there are few fighters who better live up to their moniker than the proud Georgian who now resides in New York.

The owner of variable takedown records in the organization, Dvalishvili has largely stuck to what he does best inside the cage. To say he plays to his strengths is underselling just how determined he is to wear you out in the manner he prefers.

Dvalishvili has averaged 17 takedown attempts over his last four bouts, which includes his most recent title defense against Sean O’Malley – a rematch ended in the third round. Having shot for 49 takedowns against Petr Yan in the past, it’s easy to see how Dvalishvili ends up getting his way.

Once Dvalishvili gets the fight to the mat, domination ensues. A stifling grappler who continues to improve, the Georgian is notably tightening up his submission ability. Though he typically faces grapplers too strong to submit, Dvalishvili’s passion for grappling is apparent every time he competes.

Naturally, such a strong grappler tends to take some time developing on the feet. With a background in Combat Sambo, Dvalishvili has been familiar with striking since before his MMA days but it is only in recent years that he’s beginning to put it all together.

Dvalishvili lacks raw punching power but he’s quick and explosive. He has a solid understanding of distance and his timing has proven surprisingly sharp. His vaunted reputation allows him to threaten with a variety of attacks that stem off feinted takedowns, making for a cohesive and ridiculously active fighter.

That isn’t to say the champion is flawless, though. Hurt badly with a body kick in his first showdown with O’Malley in their first showdown and floored by Marlon Moraes years ago, there have been some flashes of vulnerability in the otherwise menacing run of Dvalishvili.

On the other end of the cage, it took Cory Sandhagen a while to get here but championship level seems the place he was destined to be. A versatile fighter in every sense of the word, Sandhagen has showcased impressive skills and compiled highlights everywhere.

After a flying knee KO of Frankie Edgar and dominating the likes of Song Yadong and Marlon Vera on the feet, one would be forgiven to think Sandhagen is just a lengthy kickboxer. It’s true he excels when allowed room to move, poke, prod, and then explode into attacks but the danger doesn’t end on the feet with Sandhagen.

It goes into the books as a KO/TKO for Sandhagen but blowing out the knee of Deiveson Figueiredo five months ago was brought on purely by grappling. Savvy on the mat with a high-level and dynamic game, Sandhagen isn’t afraid to keep rolling around and looking for a submission but has grown adept at rising back to his feet, as well.

It’s hard to overstate in how many ways Sandhagen can threaten but getting enough time and space to uncork those tools is another question entirely when facing Merab Dvalishvili. There may something to say about Sandhagen’s success minute-to-minute but I have a difficult time envisioning him doing enough to win rounds before being suppressed.

It isn’t merely as simple as Dvalishvili taking Sandhagen down and controlling him on the mat. Punches, shots, singles, doubles, body locks, a constant barrage of attacks. Not necessarily meant to finish, but weaken the walls and wear down the defenses.

Sandhagen has proven himself a tremendous fighter worthy of the opportunity but this seems yet another stylistically miserable fight for him. I anticipate a gritty but failing 25-minute effort to fend off the champion.

Bet: Dvalishvili Wins By Decision @ $1.57

The betting favorite and unquestionably one of the most popular fighters on the entire event, Jiri Prochazka is only 32-years-old but feels like an urban legend of the light heavyweight division. Over the last decade, Prochazka managed to capture belts in both RIZIN and the UFC, all while maintaining a finishing rate of nearly 100%.

Infamous for his low hands, wild movement, and explosive offense, Prochazka has somehow kept up with the elites of the division one way or another. The only man to defeat Prochazka since 2015 is Alex Pereira, who did so twice and stopped Prochazka in the second round in both.

To his credit, the native of the Czech Republic has worked hard to improve defensively in recent years. He trusts his instinct to the deepest degree and in a sense this has aided him, as he commits as fully to his defense as he does his offense.

That newfound love of counter-punching served Prochazka well in a big win over former champion Jamahal Hill. Finishing in the third round, it wasn’t as traditionally aggressive a performance from Prochazka but one displaying a bit more finesse.

At his core, Prochazka is largely the same fighter he ever was but attempts to be a bit more cerebral seem to be steps in the right direction. As he has struggled a bit in recent outings to impose his will solely on virtue of raw physicality, this is arguably a particularly apt time to refine his tools.

The Czech fighter will need all the savvy he can muster when he takes on a technical-minded Muay Thai specialist in Khalil Rountree Jr. It’s only been a bit over three months since Rountree outpointed Jamahal Hill in a relatively clean victory.

Focused on staying active and seeking another shot at the title, the American has slowly but surely improved to a notable degree. Splitting time between Thailand and Las Vegas, Rountree has tightened up his striking to a serious degree and is technically one of the sharper strikers in the division.

Rountree boasts impressive punching power but he has grown intelligent enough to not rely on it. A deceptively cerebral fighter, Rountree is capable of putting in savvy, clean performances that display a surprisingly deep gas tank.

History suggests that both Rountree and Prochazka are ready and willing to engage in war this weekend but it’s clear Rountree should have the edge from a technical standpoint. The slower paced this fight is, the better for Rountree. Naturally, Prochazka thrives in chaos and would do well to push his foe back.

Of particular interest in this bout will be Rountree’s use of low kicks. A sore spot for Prochazka due to his wide stance, I expect Rountree to hit, move, and avoid getting drawn into the hurricane. Look for Rountree to chop Prochazka down, avoid extended conflict, and scrape out a decision win over a volatile former champion.

Bet: Rountree Head To Head @ $2.50

The second time’s the charm for Youssef Zalal and this run has been an impressive one. Some may remember when Zalal first entered the UFC 2020 as a fresh faced 23-year-old. He showed flashes of brilliance even back then but ran into competition such as Topuria, Woodson, and Blackshear.

An incredibly rough stretch of bouts that led to Zalal’s release from the UFC. But he hasn’t lost since. Dominant wins over a variety of low level opposition got Zalal back to the organization and he has gone 4-0 since rejoining. Three of them were finished and the lone person to hear the scorecards was longtime veteran Calvin Kattar.

Zalal has sharpened his tools drastically since his first UFC appearance and is clearly attempting to max out his versatility. The majority of his finishes have been elicited on the mat but Zalal’s footwork and general effectiveness on the feet have notably improved in recent years.

Though he lacks raw power, there is no shortage of technique. Now 29-years-old, Zalal has figured out how to meld his skills together, mixing agile striking with sparing but well-timed takedowns. This weekend represents the biggest step up of Zalal’s resurgence and a genuine strike at contention after years of effort.

1-3 in his last four outings, Josh Emmett is still ranked #8 but struggling to hold back the encroaching newcomers of the division. Since making his organizational debut in 2016, Emmett has slowly grown into a heavy-handed staple at 145lbs.

Emmett has a tremendous resume and has managed a 10-5 record in the UFC overall but his recent bouts have showcased a fighter in the waning stages of his career. Emmett is a powerful fighter with a particularly devastating right hand but he has always found difficulty with quicker, slicker fighters. Those issues have only compounded as Emmett’s volume and general intensity has dropped a bit over the years.

Despite the wars and accumulated damage, Emmett has managed to hold onto his durability. Emmett had his first fight as a 40-year-old earlier this year and went five rounds with Lerone Murphy. His ability to absorb punishment is still there but I doubt Emmett’s ability to catch up to his foe this weekend.

Zalal showed quick feet and intelligent striking when he outmaneuvered Calvin Katter earlier this year. Most would agree Emmett represents a more powerful but decidedly slower threat than Kattar. At some points in their respective careers, this would represent a solid fight for Emmett but in 2025, the scales have tipped to the side of youth.

The toughness of Zalal has never been in question and he should have a clear advantage on the feet as a whole. If he can manage to ground his powerfully pale foe, Zalal should have no trouble continuing his dominance on the mat. A finish is unlikely in either direction but Zalal has too many clean paths to victory to doubt here.

Bet: Zalal Wins By Decision @ $1.60

He may have lost some momentum with a 2024 loss to Jack Hermansson but it has been relatively easy sailing since. Two wins in MMA and another in grappling help assert Pyfer is serious about his comeback and this weekend serves as an important step back to contention.

Pyfer is something of an oddity despite an unassuming status in the division. 5-1 in the UFC, Pyfer has managed a high level of efficacy even as he progresses through clear growing pains as a developing fighter.

His loss to Hermansson wasn’t a complete shock but highlighted some of the gaps in Pyfer’s game. Though he’s a powerful striker with competent wrestling, his output can be a bit low and his own defense is lackadaisical.

That said, Pyfer isn’t likely to get outworked by a sizable degree when he takes on cerebral striker Abus Magomedov. Born in Dagestan, Russia but representing Germany, Magomedov’s style is a fitting hybridization with influence from his worldly upbringing.

His true roots are predictably grounded in wrestling but living in Germany for the past 20 years have enabled Magomedov to develop his striking skills to a serious degree. At this point, it wouldn’t be a stretch to say Magomedov leans more on his striking to win fights than anything else.

Though Magomedov is certainly capable of wrestling his opposition, often finishing with a solid success rate, his gas tank doesn’t seem well-suited to persistent efforts in that realm. Magomedov manages his conditioning better when staying on the feet, though even there he has shown discomfort dealing with heavy pressure.

All told, Magomedov is a competent fighter but he’s an underdog this weekend for good reason. Magomedov is stuck between a rock and a hard place in this one; if he wrestles, it gives him his best chance at victory but at the cost of an exhausting pace. Left on the feet, Magomedov is liable to fall behind thanks to a power differential.

Pyfer has proven an ability to land fairly accurately when he does throw and coupled with his punching power, it’s easy to see Magomedov wearing down in this one. Look for the American to set the stage early and pull the curtains sometime after the halfway point.

Bet: Pyfer Wins By KO/TKO or Submission @ $1.90