Evan Psarras previews 2025 NRL Grand Final.
The Storm were relentless in a 22-14 win over the Sharks with their spine putting on a clinic. When the Broncos trailed 14-0 at half time of the second preliminary final, a repeat of last year’s Grand Final between the Storm and Panthers looked a certainty. The Broncos had other ideas with Payne Haas and Kotoni Staggs leading the way in an epic comeback. They would exact revenge on the Panthers for the loss in the 2023 Grand Final and will need to produce another monumental effort if they are to overcome the Storm.
Head To Head
The Broncos last Grand Final victory came back in 2006 – ironically against the Storm. They have locked horns 40 times since with the Storm compiling an incredible 34-6 record in those games. That includes wins in 17 of the last 19 meetings and a 4-1 advantage in finals series matches. Their two regular season meetings this year were dominated by the team playing at home. The Storm cruised to a 22-2 win at AAMI Park in Round 23 but the Broncos managed to bounce back with a confidence-boosting 30-14 victory in the final round. It is difficult to ignore Melbourne’s success in this matchup. They have won 25 of the last 27 clashes when installed as the betting favourite including a 15-5 (75%) record at the line in the last 20. The Broncos have scored more than 20 points in only 4 of their last 19 games in this series. Will Warbrick has 7 tries in his 6 career appearances against the Broncos while Jahrome Hughes has an incredible strike rate for a half with 12 in 13 games in this matchup.
Stats That Matter
Last week we made specific note of the Storm’s incredible record when coming off an extended rest and that trend should continue as they have led at half time in 7 of their last 8 games when on a 9-day turnaround. There have been more than 40 total match points in only 2 of the last 11 NRL Grand Finals but the absence of the Panthers could see that trend take a turn. The Over has hit in 7 of the last 9 finals series matches at Accor Stadium and 3 of the last 4 battles between the Storm and Broncos. The appointment of Grant Atkins as the referee requires specific mention as there have been 44+ total match points in 9 of the last 12 finals matches that he has officiated. The Storm have won 9 of their last 11 finals games against teams not named Penrith while the Broncos have lost their last 5 finals games played in Sydney.
Prediction
The Storm executed the game plan to perfection against the Sharks which included stretching the defensive line early by using offloads and kicking in behind when the fullback was in the defensive line. No coach has a better record than Craig Bellamy when it comes to taking on the Broncos and unlike the Panthers last week, the Storm will be trying to score points when they get down the other end rather than to focus on forcing the Broncos to come off their own line. The two days additional rest cannot be ignored either – especially after the Broncos pushed themselves beyond physical barriers to get past the Panthers. It just feels as though they played their Grand Final last week, and the Storm will not be letting this opportunity slip by. The Broncos have come from 14 points down in both wins during the finals series and there will not be a repeat of that here. The Storm could run away with this one in the final 20 minutes.
Clive Churchill Medal
It has been 20 years since a hooker won the award so we will be betting around Harry Grant – no matter how good he has been. Papenhuyzen doesn’t have the work rate required to dominate the stat sheet and will be relying on attacking stats to impress. Really like the Melbourne halves pairing of Munster and Hughes. Munster led the Storm with 193 run metres on the back of 20 runs last week while Hughes added the polish with pin-point kicking and a lovely solo try. Hughes has a great try scoring record against the Broncos and a four-pointer would go a long way to earning him Clive Churchill honours. The Broncos were out on their feet against the Panthers with prop Payne Haas playing all 80 minutes. The return of Carrigan will provide him with some help but he will again be asked to play the entire game. That makes him a good bet for the Clive Churchill Medal if they can post an upset win with a forward having won the award 5 times from 2008 onwards.
Tips
Best Bet: Over 40.5 points ($1.96)
Winner: Melbourne Storm ($1.70)
Value Bets: Storm 13+ ($3.60), 51-60 Total Match Points ($5.50)
Anytime Try Scorers: Will Warbrick ($2.25), Jahrome Hughes ($4.75), Eliesa Katoa ($2.70), Josiah Karapani ($2.30), Kotoni Staggs ($3.00)
Clive Churchill Medal: Hughes ($8.00), Munster ($6.00), Haas ($7.50)
Same Game Multi: Storm +6.5, Warbrick Anytime Try, Over 40.5 points ($3.80)