Otago pulled off another impressive win last week, continuing a trend of simply being able to win close games in 2025, with a 44-41 victory over Waikato in last week’s quarterfinals. It was a thrilling contest, with Cameron Millar’s 40+ metre penalty goal after the hooter sending Otago into the semifinals. It was a back-and-forth contest, with Otago scoring the game’s first try, before Waikato responded with vigour for a 5-15 lead. However a hot end to the first half had the hosts in front 19-15, before another two rapid-fire tries gave them a 31-15 lead with 30 minutes to play. Waikato then found their feet, scoring four of the game’s last five tries to level up the scores at 41-41 heading into the final minute of play. As Otago kicked off deep into Waikato territory, Anton Lienert-Brown somewhat mysteriously kicked the ball straight back to the hosts, allowing them to work their way towards what would be the match-winning penalty goal off the golden boot of Millar. The first five-eighth has been a standout this season and was one of Otago’s best again, distributing well and kicking with precision to help his team create plenty of chances. Christian Lio-Willie was also immense in the carry and in the tackle, while Sam Gilbert and Jae Broomfield were constant threats out wide.
Bay of Plenty were near their best in their quarterfinal victory, smashing Tasman 27-7. On their day, the Steamers have looked every bit like title contenders, and they definitely earned that status with last week’s performance, leaning on a great defensive effort to get past a dangerous Tasman team. On the other side of the ball, BOP scored some excellent tries, with the electric Kele Lasaqa opening the team’s try-scoring account shortly into the second half by darting down the touch line, before Fehi Fineanganofo finished off a beautiful counter-attacking try to give the hosts some breathing room. A penalty try on the back of a monster scrum from the Steamers then sealed the win minutes later, making it four wins on the trot for BOP. There were plenty of defensive heroes in this game, including the hard-working Seamus Bardoul, Naitoa Ah Kuoi and Jacob Norris, and you get the impression that they will be made to work a lot on that end of the park again on Friday night.
I expect Otago to be able to control this game up front, and that will make for a long night of defending and working their way back from their own half for Bay of Plenty, which spells trouble. The Steamers will be dangerous when they do get sustained periods of attack, but I don’t expect that to happen all that often, making this Otago’s game to lose.
Best
Otago -0.5 ($1.95)
Value
Power Plays — Otago To Win Both Individual Halves ($4.00)
Canterbury were fortunate to keep their season alive last week, requiring extra time to get past a fierce Counties Manukau outfit. In the end, however, Canterbury were too strong in the additional 20 minutes, prevailing 23-15, with Chay Fihaki scoring all eight of the hosts’ points in extra time, first dotting down in the corner after a prolonged buildup, before drilling a 50-metre penalty goal to give Canterbury a two-score buffer and effectively win the game. Earlier on, it was an absolute grind of a contest, with the game going scoreless until the 18-minute mark, with Counties knocking over a penalty goal, before Jamie Hannah replied quickly with Canterbury’s only score of the first half. The Steelers scored a quick-fire double before halftime to go into the break up 5-15, but the hosts showed their championship class in the final hour of play, conceding no further points as they dug deep to level the scores just 12 minutes into the second half, and the scoreline would remain at that until Fihaki broke through in the 87th minute. It was a mammoth effort from Canterbury’s forwards, led by Tom Christie’s 30 tackles. Zach Gallager was tireless, as were George Bell, Dom Gardiner and Daniel Lienert-Brown. Torian Barnes made an impact off the bench and the midfield pairing of Dallas McLeod and Braydon Ennor were reliable.
Hawke’s Bay were simply too good for Taranaki, winning their quarterfinal 26-12. It was an excellent turnaround from the Magpies’ 24-38 loss in New Plymouth just three weeks earlier, and it came on the back of an excellent defensive effort. That’s not to say that Taranaki barely had their chances, but it was in the red zone where the Magpies really rolled their sleeves up, forcing turnovers, penalties and errors from the Bulls which helped keep the visitors to a season-low 12 points. Miracle Faiilagi was busy all night, Tom Parsons defended relentlessly and wreaked havoc at the lineout and Lincoln McClutchie was timely with his attacking moments, with his try shortly after Kaylum Boshier’s yellow card breaking the game open and helping steer the hosts to victory.
The two teams enter this clash with contrasting form lines, with Canterbury stumbling their way into the semis and Hawke’s Bay winning in style. However, that won’t count for much come kick-off on Saturday and we’ll see Canterbury win this game with relative ease. They match up very well against this Magpies outfit, especially in the forwards, and they will build up the pressure throughout the game and score plenty of penalty goals to record what may end up being a comfortable victory.
Best
Canterbury -7.5 ($1.95)
Value
Power Plays — Canterbury to Lead at Halftime by 1 – 7 & Win by 8 – 14 ($8.00)