North Harbour were valiant in their Ranfurly Shield challenge but they couldn’t keep up the fight for the full 80 minutes, eventually falling to a 41-26 loss. Harbour were every bit in the fight in the first half, scoring two of the game’s first three tries for a 14-7 lead. However, they faded in the final 10 minutes of the half, allowing the hosts to score twice, meaning NH would go into the break down 14-21 and they would never recover from there. A pair of quick tries in the final 10 minutes gave Harbour the smallest of sniffs, getting as close as within nine points of the Razorbacks, but two more penalty goals from the hosts sealed the win. It was another somewhat encouraging performance from Harbour, but they again lacked polish when they needed it most, with crucial errors and turnovers hurting their attacks, while they slipped off a few too many tackles to keep a lid on Otago’s scoring.
Southland’s defensive skid continued into Round 9, conceding another half-century in a 38-55 loss to Tasman. It marked the fourth game on the trot that the Stags had conceded more than 50 points, with their average points conceded in this run at 62 per game. Things could have been much worse for Southland if they didn’t tidy up their act in the second half, finishing the opening 40 minutes down 7-41, but they came out of the sheds a new team (admittedly against an lackadaisical Mako outfit), scoring 31 of their own points in the second stanza, but it was all in vain, with Tasman comfortably in front for the duration. Michael Manson had some show-stopping moments in his second half hattrick, but Southland’s forwards were bullied for most of the game in another terrible defensive showing.
The winless North Harbour will want to end the season on a high at home but it’s not going to come easily against this Southland outfit. We have seen all season long that the Stags are capable of putting up points and Harbour’s attack has been steadily improving too, making this game one for the over. The over has hit in Southland’s last four games and nine of Harbour’s last 13 at home.
Best
Over 55.5 ($1.90)
Value
Southland 1-12 ($3.80)
Auckland’s season has been one to forget, with last week’s 28-45 loss to Hawke’s Bay cementing their place outside of the top eight this season. It’s now two consecutive seasons that the Aucklanders have missed out on finals footy which is nothing short of a disaster in their eyes, and all of their shortcomings were on display again last week in Napier. As has often been the case this season, it was a steady start to the game for the Seagulls, with their 2025 star Xavier Tito-Harris scoring his eighth try of the season to level the score at 7-7 20 minutes in. However, the Magpies hit straight back, building a 7-26 lead before halftime, and it was essentially game over at that point. A huge run from Soane Vikena produced an excellent try moments before the final hooter, but it was merely a consolation as Auckland picked up another ugly defeat, as their defence crumbled yet again.
Otago put the Ranfurly Shield into the trophy cabinet for the summer after recording a 41-26 defence against North Harbour last week. The Razorbacks went into the game as 14.5-point favourites and although they did cover the spread, they were really made to work for the win. Harbour got off to the better start, with a 7-14 lead after a Mark Tele’a intercept, but Otago responded to take a 21-14 lead into the break, setting up what would be a strong second half from the Shield holders. Two of their young stars shone bright, with Dylan Pledger having his fingerprints all over the Razorbacks’ resurgence and Lucas Casey scoring another try and running strongly in general, much like his loosies buddy Christian Lio-Willie. Pledger’s second try all but iced the game for Otago, making the score 35-14 with 20 minutes remaining, with the bonus point win meaning the Razorbacks sit just one point back of first-place Canterbury heading into the final round.
With plenty to play for for Otago and nothing to play for for Auckland, I can only see this game going one way. With the Razorbacks as just 3.5-point favourites, they’re the clear play here, even with some heavy hitters such as Dylan Pledger and Joseva Tamani on the bench. Otago have covered their last seven games on the trot and will want to record a big win in Auckland to give themselves the best chance of a first place finish.
Best
Otago -3.5 ($1.90)
Value
Otago 13+ ($3.20)
Wellington have had quite the fall in 2025, going from last year’s champions, who were so dominant, to missing finals footy. They have struggled to slow down even the competition’s mediocre teams this season, and Saturday’s 20-39 loss to Taranaki was another indicator of just how far behind the pace this Lions team is. There was plenty of promise shown by Wellington in the first half, holding the hosts tryless for almost all of the first half, until Bradley Slater scored on the back of a maul, but it was a different story in the second 40, as Taranaki ran riot. Wellington’s defence had no answers in the second 40, conceding three tries inside the opening six minutes in what can only be described as a disastrous passage, giving the hosts a 6-32 lead to then go on and win the game.
Bay of Plenty put themselves in the box seat for a top four finish with a scintillating 41-5 win over Waikato last week. It was one of BOP’s best performances of the season, making a mockery of what is a decent Waikato team with some excellent running rugby dismantling the Mooloos’ defence. Kele Lasaqa was at the centre of a lot of the Steamers’ best moments, with the livewire posing a constant attacking threat, while fellow wing Fehi Fineanganofo had plenty of nice touches of his own to really get BOP’s attack firing. With a dominant lineout, solid scrum and plenty of hard work being done by the forward pack, namely Aisake Vakasiuola, Naitoa Ah Kuoi and Nikora Broughton, it was a complete performance from the Steamers which sets them up nicely for a home quarterfinal.
A win on Saturday will give the Steamers a good chance of a top four finish, while a bonus point win will guarantee it, so that’s what they’ll be gunning for. That spells trouble for this flailing Lions outfit, who have looked below par all season long and will again be outclassed here. Their pack won’t have the answers for BOP and we’ll see the visitors get plenty of scoring opportunities, resulting in a big win.
Best
Bay of Plenty -6.5 ($1.92)
Value
Bay of Plenty 13+ ($2.70)
Waikato were completely outclassed in Tauranga last week, losing to Bay of Plenty 5-41. Nothing went right for the visitors, who were constantly chasing the game after falling into an early 0-10 hole. While they recovered somewhat after that, looking more stable around the park, the wheels fell off again in the final 15 minutes of the half, conceding three more tries for a 0-29 halftime deficit which was far too big of a margin to come back from. Waikato simply couldn’t slow down the Steamers’ electric outside backs, who were attacking from all over the park, while the forwards had some issues at ruck time keeping possession, making for a very long day at the office for Waikato. Now with a 5-4 record, the Mooloos are seventh on the standings and a win over the eighth-place Northland will ensure a finals berth for Waikato.
The Taniwha’s excellent season continued last week with a significant 19-19 draw against Canterbury. It was far from a full-strength team for the Cantabrians, which brought even more intrigue to the Sunday afternoon showdown, and it proved to be a very level playing field. Not even extra time could separate the two, as Canterbury missed a last-gasp penalty goal to see the game end in a draw, but Northland may well feel like they let that game get away from them, with Canterbury playing almost 10 minutes with 13 men on the field midway through the second half. Northland didn’t manage to make any ground on Canterbury in that time, leaving it up to Rob Rush to burrow over in the final minute to send the game to extra time. The Taniwha did well to sustain plenty of pressure early in the extra period, before winning a penalty and getting into Canterbury territory. However, they were unable to really threaten the line, meaning they had to settle for a draw, meaning their spot in the top eight is not set in stone.
This is a crucial game for both teams, with a win securing a spot in the finals and a loss potentially meaning they drop out of the top eight, making for what should be a fierce contest in Hamilton. The Mooloos have been one of the more unpredictable teams this season but I don’t like their chances in this matchup, with a physical and more dynamic pack in front of them. The Taniwha’s backs have shown plenty of ingenuity this season too, and with the chances that they will get in Hamilton, I like Northland’s chances of an upset.
Best
Northland +3.5 ($1.90)
Value
Northland 1-12 ($3.60)
Manawatū’s late-season tumble continued last week, suffering another heavy loss to fall out of finals contention. The 24-48 loss to Counties Manukau came as quite the blow to this Turbos team, who showed plenty of promise early on in the season, but have suffered from a very wayward defence since the halfway point of the season. Conceding an average of 46.5 points per game in their four outings leading up to this clash in Pukekohe, Manawatū basically kept pace with their average, giving up 48 points and seven tries. Outside of a trademark bustling try from Ngani Laumape, it was a very ordinary first half from the Turbos, giving up four converted tries for a 10-28 halftime deficit. James Tofa’s try minutes into the second 40 sparked some home of a Manawatū comeback, and when he looked to have scored again just 10 minutes later, it looked like it truly was game on, only for the try to be ruled out, and the visitors never found a way back into the contest from there.
Hawke’s Bay strolled to a 45-28 victory over Auckland last week, keeping their hopes of a top four finish very much alive. Just one point behind fourth-place Bay of Plenty and two points behind third-place Taranaki, the Magpies can finish as high as third this season, and a performance similar to last week’s will definitely help their case. A ruthless display in the first half had Hawke’s Bay up 26-7 at the break, with Folau Fakatava’s regular bursts off the ruck causing all sorts of issues for the Auckland’s defence, with the halfback having a role to play in almost all of HB’s big moments. It was more of the same in the second half, with the hosts’ expansive play proving to be far too much for the Seagulls to handle, with the likes of Fakatava, Lincoln McClutchie, Miracle Fai’ilagi and Devan Flanders proving to be too good for the visitors.
With a top four finish still within reach for the Magpies, I expect to see a big performance from the Bay on Saturday night. Palmerston North has not been an easy place to win in this season, but we have seen a real slip in form from the Turbos in the last three weeks and with nothing to play for, the score in this game could end up a little ugly.
Best
Hawke’s Bay -13.5 ($1.90)
Value
Hawke’s Bay 11-20 ($3.50)
Tasman ended their three-game skid with a 55-38 win in Invercargill last week. It was a crucial win, securing their spot in the finals in the process and it was all thanks to a mammoth first half from the visitors. Tomasi Maka started the scoring, dotting down twice in the opening 10 minutes to increase his tally to nine for the season, before Kyren Taumoefolau got in on the fun with a first half hattrick. Tasman were simply outstanding in the first half, often creating something out of nothing to score seven tries and establish a 41-7 lead at the break that never really came under threat, despite a much more even second 40.
Counties Manukau recorded their fourth win on the bounce last week, thumping Manawatū 48-24. The bonus point win kept their finals dreams alive, currently sitting two points behind the eighth-place Northland as we head into the final round, meaning Sunday’s clash against Tasman will be a must-win should the Taniwha trip up against Waikato on Saturday. It was a complete performance from the Steelers last week, with their forwards nailing the set piece to score a couple of tries directly from lineouts, while the backline hummed courtesy of Gibson Popoali’i’s hattrick, Etene Nanai-Seturo’s dangerous carries and some nice runs from wings Peniasi Malimali and Josh Gray.
A lot is on the line for both teams in this clash and I expect that to show on the field, with a tense game on the horizon. Counties have really hit their stride late in the season, but all wins have been against soft opposition, and this return to elite competition on Sunday will be a shock to the system for the Steelers. The Mako will prove to be far too good in Nelson, where they have covered 13 of their last 20 games,
Best
Tasman -9.5 ($1.95)
Value
Tasman 11-20 ($3.80)
Canterbury decided to rest a whole lot of their first-string players for their trip up to Whangārei last week and they were made to pay, setting for a 19-19 draw against Northland. They almost certainly would have left Semenoff Stadium with the win and, with that, first place locked up, had they fielded their A team, but instead Marty Bourke opted to buy his team an early breather, which now leaves the door open for Otago to steal first place on the ladder. Perhaps unsurprisingly, it was a rather scrappy display from the Cantabrians, who certainly had their scoring chances but failed to capitalise when they did get into the Taniwha’s red zone. That said, the visitors defended well and forced a lot of errors from Northland in attacking areas, making for a low-scoring affair, but it looked like Canterbury were going to leave as the winners on a few occasions. Leading 19-12 with just minutes remaining, Canterbury couldn’t hold out the hosts, who scored to send the game to ET. It was the red and blacks who started the extra period better, getting into Northland’s 22 but they were unable to convert that chance into points. They then worked their way back into the 22 as the clock started to expire, eventually winning a penalty 15 metres in from touch, 22 metres out. However, without a specialist goalkicker, Andrew Knewstubb was forced to step up for the kick, before hooking it to the left to see the game end 19-19.
Taranaki benefitted from a ruthless seven minutes of rugby at the start of the second half to record a 39-20 win over Wellington last week. With just an 11-6 lead at the break, the game was in the balance, but a three-try flurry gave Taranaki the buffer they needed to go on to win the game with ease. Kaylum Boshier got this run started, snaking through the defence for a 43rd minute try, before Jesse Parete scored off a charge down just two minutes later to make it 23-6. Parete then played a key role in the next try, finding Josh Jacomb with a nice ball who then kicked upfield for Logan Crowley to get on the end of it and score for the Bulls’s third try in seven minutes, effectively winning the game in the process. Jacomb was again the main man for Taranaki, pulling the strings with expert precision and pinning Wellington in their own half often, helping secure a win that sees Taranaki head into the final round in third place and with an outside chance of a first-place finish.
Unsurprisingly, Bourke has brought back the big guns for this clash, and that will help Canterbury finish the season with a win. Taranaki have recovered well from a midseason slump but they simply are not on the level of this Canterbury team. The hosts’ huge, disciplined pack will dominate the Bulls’ and there is plenty of danger in this Canterbury backline too, which will help make for a relatively comfortable win for the red and blacks.
Best
Canterbury -5.5 ($1.87)
Value
Canterbury 11-20 ($4.00)