The two best teams from the regular season will contest the NPC final on Saturday, as Canterbury host Otago. The Cantabrians will be aiming for their 15th title and they were looking every bit like the favourites for most of the season, winning their first seven games and recording an average margin of victory of 20 points across that span. However, a loss to this very Otago team in a Ranfurly Shield defence proved that the red and blacks were not unbeatable, before a B-team went north to Whangārei and played out a 19-19 draw to jeopardise their spot on top of the standings. A big win over Taranaki secured the #1 seed and although Canterbury needed extra time to get past a very gritty Counties Manukau team in the quarterfinals, they put together a much better performance in last week’s 43-19 semifinal victory over Hawke’s Bay.
It was a clinical display in the second half that got Canterbury over the line, with their one-point halftime lead quickly ballooning out to a 29-14 buffer thanks to back-to-back tries from Dallas McLeod. The forwards then combined off a charge down to set up Daniel Lienert-Brown for a 22-point lead with 15 minutes to play, and it was game over at that point, before Tom Christie put the cherry on top with a late try of his own. While Canterbury impressed on attack by running up a big total, it was their defence that stood out the most. Hawke’s Bay enjoyed the majority of possession and threatened Canterbury’s line on plenty of occasions, but the hosts’ defence in their own half was formidable and set up a convincing victory. Zach Gallagher put forward another monster defensive effort, Tom Christie rolled up his sleeves in classic fashion, while Sam Darry worked hard and George Bell and will be unavailable for the final after earning All Blacks selection for the end of year tour. McLeod was the standout of the backs, while Ngane Punivai had some nice runs.
Otago were not fancied all that much heading into the season and were underdogs in three of their first five games. They emerged from that period with a 3-2 record, and looked like they were going to be a plucky team that was a finals contender at that point, but something seemed to change for the better at the halfway point of the season, with a thrilling two-point victory over Taranaki preceding a famous Ranfurly Shield victory in Christchurch in Round 8. Otago then rounded out the season with two big wins over North Harbour and Auckland, before dramatically getting past Waikato in the quarterfinals, with Cameron Millar’s penalty goal after the hooter earning the team a three-point victory.
Everything seemed to come together in last week’s 41-17 triumph over Bay of Plenty, flicking the switch at the 20-minute mark to put the Steamers to the sword. It was a rather slow start from the Razorbacks, conceding two tries in the opening 18 minutes for a 7-12 deficit, but the excellent Christian Lio-Willie responded almost immediately to see Otago hit the lead. From there, it was a footy masterclass from the hosts, defending staunchly and taking their opportunities, as Will Stodart did just before the break to make it 21-12. Young star Dylan Pledger struck shortly after the break after an excellent setup from Millar, before 2024 star Finn Hurley darted away with 15 minutes to play, putting the game well out of BOP’s reach. Millar led his back line with excellent poise and guidance in the win, while Lio-Willie carried relentlessly and Sam Gilbert looked to get involved regularly. Thomas Umaga-Jensen was rock-solid again in the midfield while Will Tucker often led the defensive line in an 80-minute outing.
The losses of Darry and Bell cannot be understated for Canterbury and that leaves the door open for an Otago upset. The Razorbacks’ forwards have been highly impressive in 2025 and will have the upper hand against this Canterbury pack which will prove to be a vital factor of this final. McLeod, Punivai, Braydon Ennor and Chay Fihaki will give the visitors some trouble, but this is a good Otago defence in the backline and the depth of the Razorbacks’ bench will help them finish strongly. I fancy Otago as the underdogs here. They have covered nine of their last 10 games and Canterbury are just 2-4 ATS in their last six.
Best
Otago +5.5 ($1.85)
Value
Otago 1-12 ($3.60)