NY Jets +6.5 (at Cincinnati)
Winless teams after Week 5 cover at 62% while underdogs off scoring six or fewer cover at 57%., making the struggling Jets a play here against Joe Flacco and the Bengals.
Philadelphia -7.5 (v NY Giants)
Teams playing a division opponent healing into their bye cover at 69.2% while favourites heading into their bye cover at 68.3% making the Eagles a strong bet.
Dallas +3.5 (at Denver)
Teams who comeback from a deficit of nine or more points in the final quarter like Denver did last week cover at just 29% the following week so Dallas have to be played.
Pittsburgh +3.5 (v Green Bay)
After allowing 30 or more points the Steelers cover at 71% while Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin is 22-7-3 against the spread as a home underdog.
The Pats are in a huge lay spot here with teams off winning and covering four straight who did not make the playoffs last year on a 1-14-1 against the spread run since 2022, making the Browns a big value play.
Under 45.5 Buffalo-Carolina
The under hits at 68.9% when a road team is off a bye and 67.6% when teams suffered an upset loss off their bye, both spots which Buffalo fills.
Over 41.5 San Francisco-Houston
The over is 17-9 when two teams meet off playing a night game, as both these teams are.
Under 47 Tampa Bay-New Orleans
The under hits at 70.6% when a team is heading into a bye against a division opponent.
LA Chargers -3.5 (v Minnesota)
Home favourites in Thursday Night Football cover at 55% the last 20 seasons while Jim Harbaugh is 28-14-2 against the spread in September/October.
Pittsburgh +3.5 (v Green Bay)
After allowing 30 or more points the Steelers cover at 71% while Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin is 22-7-3 against the spread as a home underdog.
Under 47 Kansas City-Washington
The under hits at 61% when both teams are on extended rest as is the case with these two teams.
The Jets and Eagles are listed as two of the best bets this week while the under in the Bills-Panthers is the best total of the week.
The Bucs-Saints under is one of the top totals while the Cowboys are an elite play. The Titans have covered just two of 14 division games so have to be with the hot Colts.
Johnson has worked his way into an increased role at the Bucs with 16 targets the last three games including nine against the Lions. Mike Evans is hurt so he stands out as the WR2. He has scored the last two weeks.
Bijan Robinson has crossed in his last three and the Dolphins cannot stop the run. Christian McCaffrey has scored in his last four and is the complete 49ers offense. Jalen Hurts has rushed for five touchdowns this season on the back of the infamous tush push. The Colts are favoured by two touchdowns and Taylor has 10 touchdowns the last five weeks.
Robinson has rushed for at least 70 yards in four of his last five. He has caught for 39 or more yards in all bar one game this year. Kyle Pitts has just a single game with fewer than 37 yards.