We were treated to two excellent semi final matches and the final promises to be just as good. Both players were forced to come from a set down – showing tremendous mental fortitude and producing their best with their backs against the wall. Few players boast a winning against Sabalenka but Anisimova is one of them. She leads the H2H 6-3 and notably defeated Sabalenka at Wimbledon earlier this season. That came after the world number one got the better of her at the French Open which means they meet again for the third consecutive Grand Slam.
Sabalenka has been installed as a firm favourite but his will account for nothing once the players take the court. The top seed lost to Keys in the final of the Australian Open and to Gauff in the final of the French – dropping to 3-3 lifetime in major finals. The biggest concern for Anisimova will be her performance in the Wimbledon final where she failed to win a single game. To her credit, she overcame her demons by beating Swiatek in the quarters her and will have learned from that experience.
Nobody has been more dominant on serve throughout the tournament than Sabalenka with 77% of 1st serve points won accompanied by 54% on 2nd serve. We are more interested in her numbers against Anisimova and they have not been as strong. Anisimova broke her serve 4 time in their battle at Wimbledon with the American winning 60% of 2nd serve points in that match. A clear tactic of Anisimova’s has been to attack her opponents’ 2nd serve. She has executed this game plan perfectly and has won a ridiculous 68% of 2nd serve return points across here last three matches (Osaka, Swiatek and Haddad-Maia). On the back of this and Sabalenka’s struggles in major finals this year, I am tipping Anisimova to break through and at her name to the list of Grand Slam champions.
Best Bet: Anisimova +3.5 ($1.75)
Value: Sets Anisimova 2-1 ($5.50)