Defending champion Aryna Sabalenka was handed a free path into the semi finals and will face Pegula in a rematch of last year’s final. Meanwhile, Anisimova stunned Swiatek and was able to avenge her 6-0 6-0 loss at Wimbledon with a straight sets win of her own.
The world number 1 entered last year’s final as an overwhelming favourite but Pegula held her own in a narrow 7-5 7-5 loss. The American was up a break in both sets but as has been the case for the last 2-3 years, Sabalenka was able to find her A-Game in the critical stages of the match. The pair have met one additional time since that battle with Sabalenka victorious in Miami 7-5 6-2. She has now won the last three encounters in straight sets but they have been very close with 4 of the last 5 sets ending in a 7-5 scoreline. The H2H now reads 7-2 to the top seed but there are several positives for Pegula. There will be less pressure on her this time around as it is a semi final instead of a final and as we saw with Anisimova, going for it is the best option. Pegula has been the most dominant player in the draw as she is yet to drop a set and has conceded more than three games in only 2 of the 10 sets played. I have Pegula holding her own in a tight match and she is good value to cause an upset.
Bet: Over 21.5 games ($1.91)
Value: Pegula WIN ($3.25)
First and foremost, hats off to Anisimova for her win over Swiatek in the quarter finals. She would have had to deal with some huge mental demons after being double bageled in the Wimbledon final by Swiatek and those thoughts would have crept right back in after she was broken in the very first game. She was able to bounce back with her greatest success coming by way of attacking the Swiatek second serve. Osaka was able to get the better of Muchova who evidently struggled after going the distance in her four previous matches and will be brimming with confidence after compiling an 11-1 record in her last 12 matches. Both women have won more than 50% of 2nd serve points for the tournament which suggests that we will not see many breaks of serve. There was a total of only two breaks between them in their first ever battle – a three-set win to Anisimova at the Australian Open in 2022. Their only other meeting came at the French Open in the same year with Anisimova posting a 7-5 6-4 win. The Over has hit in both of their matches and this one has the makings of a three-set thriller. Really like the Overs and am leaning towards Anisimova winning the deciding set.
Bet: Over 21.5 games
Value: Sets Anisimova 2-1