As expected, the trio of Sinner, Alcaraz and Djokovic have made it through to the semi finals without any trouble along the way. Auger-Aliassime delivered an upset win for us to join the three main contenders but will need to produce the best tennis of his life to compete with Sinner. We are step away from a third consecutive major final between Sinner and Alcaraz.
World number 1 Jannik Sinner showed no mercy in his quarter final clash against countryman Lorenzo Musetti. He has all 7 break points that he faced and literally blew Musetti off the court winning 68% of 2nd serve return points. Next up is Canadian Auger-Aliassime who has had the toughest run to the final four bearing Zverev, Rublev and De Minaur in his last three matches. His serve has been huge throughout the tournament but we have already seen sinner pick apart the serves of Bublik and Popyrin. The pair met a fortnight ago with Auger-Aliassime taking a 2-0 H2H advantage with him into that match. ‘Two’ is the number of games he won as Sinner destroyed him 6-0 6-2. The Canadian had zero aces and 8 double faults in that match with the Italian putting his serve under extreme pressure. Auger-Aliassime won 20% of 2nd serve points and made 28 unforced errors in 13 games played. This highlights the difficulty he will have hitting through Sinner and variety is not a strong aspect of his game. Sinner will break serve multiple times per set.
Bet: Sinner -7.5 ($1.80)
Value: 1st Set Score After 2 Games – Sinner 2-0 ($3.20)
The gap between the top two (Sinner and Alcaraz) and the rest of the field is getting bigger by the day and that includes Novak Djokovic. Many are wondering why Djokovic is insisting on hanging around and the reality is because he can stroll into the semi finals without having to do anything spectacular. He had 8 double faults against Fritz and has fewer winners (33) than unforced errors (40) yet still managed to get through in four sets. Unless he improves significantly on those numbers, he won’t go close to winning a set against Alcaraz. The Spaniard is yet to drop serve in the tournament and has won an incredible 68% of 2nd serve points. Djokovic fans will have hope as the 24-time major champion go the better of Alcaraz at the Olympics and Australian Open but the two have gone in opposite directions in the last 6 months. Alcaraz has won 35 of his last 36 matches with his only defeat in that stretch coming against Sinner in the Wimbledon final. Djokovic relied on his experience and consistency to get past Fritz but at 38, not even he has the legs required to defend effectively against the power of Alcaraz. Expecting Carlos to completely dominate the contest.
Bet: Alcaraz -5.5 ($1.85)
Value: Set 1 Score After 4 Games – Alcaraz 3-1 ($3.10)