UFC Fight Night Preview & Tips | Sunday 7 September

Four straight wins in the middleweight top 15 are tough enough to obtain, but finishing half of those cemented the legitimacy of Nassourdine Imavov’s run. Most recently, it took only two rounds for Imavov to get his hand raised over former champion Israel Adesanya.

The win showed improvements in the right areas and it’s clear Imavov is surging as a contender. A Dagestani-born resident of France, Imavov’s unique allegiances tie into his deceptively diverse game, as well.
Though he typically operates as a lengthy kickboxer with power in both hands, Imavov has shown an outlet for wrestling. It isn’t a consistent threat, but it’s a surprisingly refined one. Imavov isn’t simply a big, strong fighter but a technically sound one in every area.

Allowed to fight at his pace, Imavov has shown the ability to run away with fights. His striking is hitting an impressive tier and he has shown lasting power with concussive surges down the stretch. Imavov matches up well with much of the top-end of the division, and Caio Borralho is no exception. A cerebral game planner and figurehead of the Fighting Nerds, Borralho is riding a sizable win streak of his own.

Borralho’s single loss dates back to 2015 and he has since been entirely successful. The ascent of the Brazilian took some time – he made his UFC debut in 2022 – but much like his style inside the cage, careful planning has yielded results.

At this stage, Borralho isn’t a reckless fighter and seems to be settling into a moderated pace that allows him to stay relevant through longer fights. This was reflected in his fifth round knockdown of Jared Cannonier.

Ultimately, Borralho does what he needs to in order to have his hand raised. A thoughtful fighter with accurate striking, Borralho is willing to threaten the takedown but it has rarely been constantly utilized. Across seven bouts in the UFC and another two in Dana White’s Contender Series, Borralho has only scored a fight-high of four takedowns.

To some degree, this speaks to Borralho’s solid control from top position. There’s no mistaking his heavy presence on top, but it must be noted that Borralho has failed to replicate that same success against competent grapplers.

Both men have worked hard to get to this position and the fans are rewarded with a tremendous showdown of contenders as a result. Though Borralho is favored this weekend, Imavov seems to have the tools necessary to answer him everywhere.

Imavov’s wrestling acumen has been enough to keep him on the feet when he chooses to and I doubt that trend will be broken here. Look for France’s greatest hope of a UFC champion to get his hand raised after five careful rounds and stake his claim as next in line.

Bet: Imavov Head To Head @ $2.10

3-0 in the UFC with two finishes, few have amassed such dramatic highlights in such a short period of time as Mauricio Ruffy. A member of the illustrious Fighting Nerds and easily the most explosive on the roster, Ruffy is a finishing machine and surgically precise striking savant who is already making claims to a title shot.

Ruffy was in action only six months ago, kicking the head off of King Green at UFC 313. The win was yet another in a string of impressive moments for Ruffy, who has simply battered people since entering the UFC.

At this point, many fans are already familiar with his accuracy and deep fleet of armaments. Ruffy is a devastating offensive fighter with power in every limb, but there is something to be said about the stiff resistance he’ll meet this weekend.

Benoit Saint-Denis is only 29-year-old and has already collected enough damage for a career. 6-3 in the UFC, the man often referred to as “BSD” has been a dogged competitor every time he steps into the cage. Not all of those have gone his way, but Saint-Denis makes himself known.

Recent outings have showcased how damage and the elevation of opposition has caused Saint-Denis to slip a bit. A roller coaster of a loss to Renato Moicano forced a break, and the native of France returned to action earlier this year.

The performance, a second round submission win over Kyle Prepolec, showed some positive indicators but also suggested that Saint-Denis may be slowing down for good. Though he isn’t old in the chronological sense, Saint-Denis has looked vulnerable and worn in striking exchanges.

Saint-Denis would be best served to charge Ruffy early and force grappling exchanges. Saint-Denis’ resume is impressive and he has proven himself capable of manhandling high-level opponents, but Ruffy hasn’t yet demonstrated the ability to fend that off.

Given the difference in their strength of opposition, one would be justified for giving Saint-Denis’ line as an underdog some of their money. That said, the Frenchman has historically been an easy target to find and try as he might, I expect him to fold this weekend.

Saint-Denis isn’t the kind to lie down without an effort but Ruffy is a ripper on the feet. Look for the early portion to be chaos before Ruffy uncorks a nuke that topples the Frenchman.

Bet: Ruffy Wins By KO/TKO or Submission @ $1.92

After beginning his UFC career 1-3, having his knee blown apart by Khalil Rountree Jr., and getting cut from the organization, the road back to relevancy seemed like a herculean task. But a stretch of victories, including several upsets, have led Modestas Bukauskas to a surge of success and a three-fight win streak.

Bukauskas had to edge out a split decision over Ion Cutelaba last time out but the performance was solid overall, with accuracy a particularly strong factor. Originally from Lithuania, the resume of Bukauskas is surprisingly strong.

At 31-years-old, Bukauskas is outputting career-best work and seems to be hitting a stride as a professional. His striking is accurate, his power is coming through, and Bukauskas is keeping fights where he wants them.

It may have seemed a weird match-up years ago, but Bukauskas now finds himself favorably inclined against submission specialist Paul Craig. A magnet for chaos, Craig found himself involved in a No Contest earlier this year after an illegal up-kick landed on Rodolfo Bellato.

Beyond the weird result itself, Craig has teetered on the brink of retirement for a while now as he struggles to regain his footing. Technically, he is 0-3 dating back to 2023 and 1-5 going back a year farther.

The results have been going against Craig for a multitude of reasons. A middleweight campaign seemed ill-fated for the 6’3” (192cm) fighter and he predictably couldn’t find consistency in the division. Even at light heavyweight, Craig’s cohesion has dissolved and his style generally comes out looking fractured and unfocused.

Craig is a dangerous and aggressive submission artist but rarely finds an opportunity to surprise opponents with it anymore. Lacking the wrestling to get fights to the mat, Craig was forced to develop passable but underwhelming kickboxing assets.

Without the reliable threat of a takedown, Craig’s chances of outpointing Modestas Bukauskas seem a bit far-fetched. Craig has never been a particularly hard puncher and his own ability to resist the power of Bukauskas will be a question mark in this bout. The Lithuanian continues his win streak and likely gets a finish in the process.

Bet: Bukauskas Wins By KO/TKO or Submission @ $1.70

An initial run in the UFC led to a meager 1-2 record but Mason Jones climbed back and got a victory over Jeremy Stephens earlier this year. It may not be the elite head Jones hopes to eventually put on his mantle but was a sign of good things going forward for the Welshman.

12-0 in Cage Warriors and now 2-2 in the UFC, Mason Jones isn’t a household name but owns a deceptively solid resume for such a relative unknown. The 30-year-old Jones is well-rounded and exemplifies a young MMA fighter who can do a bit of everything.

Jones has had some ups and downs through a largely successful career but recent years have shown a surprising level of versatility. Jones isn’t a devastating puncher but he’s deceptively gritty in tie-ups and clinches, roughing people up with elbows and dirty boxing.

Jones’ wrestling is also an underrated, though increasingly relevant aspect of his game. Eight successes in his last bout demonstrated the gas tank and intent to wrestle consistently, but generally Jones has won the majority of minutes in his bouts on the feet.

Perhaps most importantly, Jones is durable, has a solid gas tank, and is willing to put offense on the board even if it won’t stop the fight. Those characteristics will be vital to carry him through a win over a speedy and powerful threat in Bolaji Oki.

2-1 in the UFC, Oki finally found his way to the Octagon earlier this year with a win over Michael Aswell. The two stayed close throughout the bout but it was Oki who had his hand raised after three high-volume rounds.

It was a much-needed win for Oki but once again showcased some of his vulnerabilities. Oki largely dominated his regional opposition with pressure, power, and regularly owning a size or strength advantage. As he has stepped into the UFC, Oki’s raw physicality hasn’t been enough to separate him from the opposition.

Though Oki will surely be willing to walk forward and wing heavy offense at Jones on the feet, I get the impression the Welshman is the far more skilled fighter overall. In fact, it may not be a stretch to say Jones is the cleaner fighter on the feet, as well.

That said, Jones’ wrestling is likely to be the deciding factor in what could otherwise look like a hectic and competitive kickboxing bout. Jones is a reliable wrestler with the gas tank to pump out varied offense down the stretch. As Oki tires, look for Jones to turn up the heat and pull away in a solid showing.

Bet: Jones Head To Head @ $1.72

For 27-year-old Axel Sola, the time and place of UFC Fight Night 258 is perfect. A native of France with a glossy 10-0-1 record as a professional, Sola also owns a fairly extensive amateur background having ran through the IMMAF circuit.

With so much experience, one would expect quite a bit of composure but Sola’s game still shows a lack of maturity. Perhaps due to his generally meek level of opposition, Sola has gotten by on grit and a deeper bag of tricks but has been dragged into competitive and taxing affairs in the past.

Sola does his best work when he establishes top position and slows the fight down. Though he isn’t one to shy away from a brawl, Sola’s defensive issues leave him vulnerable on the feet. At 5’11” (180cm), Sola is on the taller end of the lightweight spectrum and also cannot avoid the ubiquitous errors of his lanky ilk.

The unbeaten man will have the support of the French crowd this weekend but Rhys McKee will prove to be a tricky debut. McKee has passed through the UFC more than once but finally got his first organizational win on his fifth attempt.

It took only five minutes for McKee to floor Daniel Frunza multiple times and inflict enough damage to force a stoppage. The performance was one of the best in McKee’s career and served as a particularly welcome break in the trend for McKee, who is now 1-4 in the UFC.

McKee’s record inside the organization may not be impressive but a closer look at his resume should inspire some sympathy. Beyond infamously receiving Khamzat Chimaev in his own UFC debut, McKee has largely faced relevant or at least tenured opposition in the welterweight division.

6’2” (188cm) and filling out his frame more by the year, McKee’s physicality is growing to a welcome degree. He isn’t quite yet the strongest man in the division but McKee has been looking bigger and more forceful inside the cage than ever.

These physical improvements meld well with his technical prowess and fairly large set of tools. McKee is capable of winning the fight anywhere but does his best work when allowed to stay on his feet and start gathering momentum.

McKee has struggled to find his footing in the Octagon but he is the vastly more experienced fighter in this contest. He isn’t an easy man to put away and grinding out a prolonged win over McKee has historically been a taxing endeavor.

There’s a lot to like about Sola when he gets rolling but he has shown a lot of vulnerabilities against limited opposition. I consider this weekend a jump too large for the young Frenchman; look for McKee to pull off his second consecutive upset.

Bet: McKee Head To Head @ $2.10

Double champ status in OKTAGON MMA was enough to get Losene Keita a UFC contract but it’s the impressive results he amassed on that run that earns him the position of betting favorite. Keita has only a single loss on his record – an injury sustained within 68 seconds – and has otherwise been a whirlwind of success.

Representing Belgium, Keita has had his way on the European circuit thanks largely to a regular striking advantage. Keita is quick, explosive, and physically ahead of the majority of his regional opposition.

Combined with his surprisingly thoughtful technical skills, it’s easy to see why the 27-year-old is such a highly anticipated prospect. With experience in five round fights and a solid build to his career, the time is right for Keita to begin putting it together on the biggest stage.

First, he will have to get past a perennial veteran who is quietly settling into a role as featherweight gatekeeper. A vaunted champion of Bellator past, Pitbull’s run in the UFC only began this year but has already seen some ups and downs.

Though he fell short in his organizational debut, Pitbull’s follow-up two months ago was a far stronger outing. Outpointing Dan Ige over three somewhat cerebral rounds, the Brazilian was able to keep things at his pace and stay ahead with heavier combinations and a frequent takedown threat.

At times, he displayed some of the vintage flair and aggression that earned him world titles. But at 38-years-old, it’s clear he is beginning to fall behind a fast-moving division. Pitbull still hits hard and does decent work when committing to his offensive charges but his timing is worse than ever.

Swinging for the fences is becoming a more common trend as he struggles to hone in accurately on targets. Naturally, Pitbull is a persistent threat as long as he’s on his feet but his margin for error is evaporating as he ages.

This fight remains a monumental step up for Losene Keita but nobody can deny their opposing trajectories. Physically, Keita is everything Pitbull does not want to deal with at this stage of his career; speed, power, and a solid gas tank will allow Keita to stay ahead and pile on the damage.

Bet: Keita Head To Head @ $1.45