UFC Fight Night Preview & Tips | Sunday 28 September

It may be regarded as a fairly quick ascent all things considered but to Carlos Ulberg, it was a slow and deliberate process of development that is paying off now. 8-1 in the UFC, Ulberg’s lone career defeat came in his promotional debut.

Since then, Ulberg has rattled off eight straight wins and most recently took a unanimous decision over Jan Błachowicz. Beating the former champion with a measured and intelligent approach, Ulberg has settled nicely into a patient rhythm.

Recent years have proven Ulberg’s concept and he can flesh out as a well-rounded fighter. Perhaps most important to a quick, well-timed striker is the ability to keep the fight where he needs it. In this regard, Ulberg has shown great improvement.

His takedown defense has held up well and he has even flashed more capability in pure grappling than he typically shows. Extended striking exchanges, of course, tend to favor the experienced former kickboxer.

Ulberg has come a long way since being stopped by Kennedy Nzechukwu as a relative novice in 2021. With a win over one former champion in the books, Ulberg’s title dreams are well-suited if he can succeed against another this weekend.

A comeback story in his own right, Dominick Reyes has had one of the weirdest careers at an elite level. After coming up infamously short in a disputed loss to Jon Jones, a three-fight skid and subsequent health scare put Reyes’ entire career into sudden question.

Interestingly, when Reyes was set to return in 2024 from his layoff he was initially booked with Carlos Ulberg. The fight fell through twice and Reyes went on to amass a surprising three-fight win streak. Most recently, Reyes dispatched Nikita Krylov in a single round.

Despite all the ups and downs, it’s hard to say Reyes is much different than the man he was when he fought Jon Jones. At 35-years-old, Reyes still has the speed, power, and athleticism to keep up in fast-paced moments.

Unfortunately for Reyes, this fight amounts to a tough call no matter when it arrives. Ulberg is one of the few in the division who can reasonably compete with Reyes’ physical characteristics. From a technical standpoint, Ulberg stands to own the advantage there as the cleaner striker, as well.

Things are trending in the right direction for Ulberg and he seems to have found a style and pacing that works for him. He won’t need to rush anything, as the American will be happy to eventually lead the charge. These two are bound to make for some tense exchanges but Ulberg should be able to thread the needle and end things before the final bell in an emphatic way.

Bet: Ulberg Wins By KO/TKO or Submission @ $1.80

0-3-2 over a four-year stretch and breaking that with a victory earlier this year, it’s an understatement to say Jimmy Crute‘s last few years have been tumultuous. The level of opposition is partly to blame but Crute has been in some flat out weird fights/situations in recent years.

Crute’s first round submission win over Marcin Prachnio was a desperately-needed return to normalcy. For all his on-paper struggles, Crute has quite a bit to offer as a fighter in the light heavyweight division.

The native Australian is one of the stronger fighters in the division and keeps things fairly clean on a technical level. His striking is rudimentary but passable and he holds a deceptive level of power in both hands. Where he shines is on the mat, though.

Crute is an experienced grappler and longtime black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (recently achieving his 2nd degree in the sport). The Aussie has pure grappling to put on display but is effective causing damage with ground and pound; in fact, I consider it one of his best strengths.

Crute is menace from top position. Punches, elbows, passing attempts, and heavy pressure throughout; it’s a miserable experience getting stuck under Jimmy Crute. Whatever success Crute may find on the feet in this contest, he will assuredly find more on the mat.

Ivan Erslan is a kickboxer in his own right and will likely hope to keep things on the feet here. I wouldn’t go so far as to say this is a radical clash of styles, but Erslan has minted a career as a nearly exclusive striker.

The 33-year-old Croatian is still chasing his first victory in the UFC. He has put up fairly competitive efforts against Ion Cutelaba and Navajo Stirling but neither have been entirely impressive showings. There is something to be said about the relatively stiff level of competition for a promotional novice but at the end of the day, Erlsan simply needs to show more.

Seven bouts in KSW helped assert Erslan’s reputation as an effective striker, but even there he struggled against more powerful or consistent opponents. Erslan may find pockets of success in this bout but it’s unlikely he can stop the betting favorite from doing what he chooses.

Crute should be able to keep himself out of serious trouble on the feet and I expect he can drag this fight to the mat when he wants to. From there, it should only be a matter of time before Crute can bludgeon his way to another finish and find solid footing on his comeback trail.

Bet: Crute Wins By KO/TKO or Submission @ $1.88

Hot and cold results are becoming a trend for Jack Jenkins but there is still a lot to like about the born and bred Aussie. A heavy betting favorite, Jenkins is only 3-2 in the UFC but has shown some impressive flashes in the process.

When Jenkins is firing on all cylinders he can do a bit of everything but he really outputs his best work on the feet. Owning solid timing, composure, and accuracy, Jenkins also has enough force in his limbs to keep opponents from mindlessly trucking forward.

After fighting a fleet of grappling-motivated opponents, Jenkins gets a change in pace this weekend with the gritty and offense-minded Ramon Taveras.

1-1 in the UFC and sharing the same record in DWCS, Taveras’ last two years have been quite wild. He split fights with Serhiy Sidey and most recently got beat to the punch by longtime veteran Davey Grant. The effort of Taveras was respectable but taking on a savvy striker like Grant was too much, too soon.

Taking nine months to reset himself and get ready for the move up in weight, this weekend will represent the featherweight debut of Taveras after coming in heavy multiple times in recent years for bantamweight bouts.

The additional weight should serve Taveras well as he looks to wade forward and wing offense. He seems to like nothing more than a brawl and though he has been caught and hurt in the past, nothing seems to dissuade him from engaging in firefights.

Taveras is not as clean, well-rounded, or dynamic as Jack Jenkins but the aggressive upstart throws hard and won’t stop attacking. I expect this will land him in more trouble than he puts Jenkins in, but there is an inherent volatility that follows Taveras into his bouts.

Either man is apt to have big moments in this one but Jenkins should find the target more consistently as the smoother fighter and better mover. Look for Jenkins to hold his ground against the divisional debutant and get his hand raised at the end of a Fight of the Night contender.

Bet: Jenkins Wins By Decision @ $2.45

It feels like Jake Matthews has been in the UFC for an eternity and should be a wizened coach in someone’s corner at this point, but “The Celtic Kid” is only 31-years-old. Perhaps an eternal “kid” much like “Wonderboy”, Matthews has developed into a stable veteran while maintaining some youthful vigor.

Now 15-7 in the UFC, it’s hard to say when Matthews graduated from a prospect but at this stage of his career Matthews has too many tricks up his sleeve to be considered a young buck. He rides a three-fight win streak into the weekend with a first round submission over Chidi Njokuani as the most recent.

Durable and well-rounded, Matthews has flat out lost fights in the past for contesting in his opponent’s wheelhouse. Matthews is capable of winning a fight anywhere but struggles against specialists who can lure him into engaging them where they’re best.

When the Victoria representative is on, he looks like a smart, driven, dangerous fighter. But there are lapses in judgment that have cost him victory. Fortunately, he seems to be on the right track right now and his most recent win was a solid proof of concept.

A single takedown was all Matthews needed to submit Njokuani, and he similarly owns quite a large advantage over many of his opponents on the ground. Matthews does not shoot many takedowns but he is effective when he does; when establishing top position, the ball really gets rolling.

If Matthews is fighting to the most intelligent of his ability, it’s conceivable to see him becoming a contender one day. UFC Fight Night 260 will serve as a solid test of Matthews’ burgeoning prime as Neil Magny attempts to stave off yet another young upstart.

A seemingly eternal gatekeeper, Magny has established a remarkable resume with 35 bouts and over a decade in the organization. Though he is now beginning to slow down at the age of 38, Magny is still proving to have some gas left in the tank as he finished fellow veteran Elizeu Zaleski last month.

Little needs to be said about the dynamism of Magny and his crushing effectiveness in clinches, but it’s worth pointing out how the typically tireless fighter is beginning to wear down. Magny still enters the cage looking to impose the same pressure he always does but there is no doubting he is slowing down, outputting less offense, and feeling the damage of his opposition a bit more.

There are many times in their respective careers that Magny would not only be poised for an upset, but potentially favored; this weekend is not one of those times.

Both have already experienced long careers but Matthews is still showing signs of improvement in the areas that matter most while Magny is becoming to degrade in his best areas. The contrast should be apparent on fight night, with Matthews dragging Magny into physical exchanges and exploiting a sizable gap in grappling ability.

Bet: Matthews Wins By KO/TKO or Submission @ $2.60

Now 4-5 in the UFC and riding a two-fight skid into the weekend, the momentum is firmly stalled out for the Tafa brothers Justin and Junior. Originally schedule to compete on the same card, Junior pulled out of the event this week due to injury.

Both have been the subject of criticism due to a large number of rescheduled bouts and pull-outs in recent years. The lone competing Tafa this weekend was dispatched of in 0:35 earlier this year by Tallison Teixeira and desperate to get back on track.

On some level, it’s easy to sympathize with Tafa for entering the UFC as a 3-0 professional and immediately getting fairly tough match-ups. On another level, Tafa has been in the UFC for six years and has failed to impress, even infamously missing the heavyweight limit in a 2021 bout.

At 31-years-old, Justin seems to be settling into a front-loaded finisher who wings early offense and waits to see who falls first. At this point, there isn’t much finesse to Tafa; what he offers in greatest volume is raw power.

A slight betting favorite at UFC Fight Night 260, Tafa will be welcoming the latest Scotland native to the organization in Louie Sutherland. 10-3 as a professional, one would be forgiven for not knowing of Sutherland’s efforts off the top of their head.

He skated in and out of Bellator and PFL but the brunt of his recent outings have been spent in Netherlands-based organization Levels Fight League. Sutherland has enjoyed an abundance of success in the regional promotion but his level of opposition has been largely abysmal.

Stylistically, Sutherland subverts expectations as a muscle-bound heavyweight with a soft touch. Surprisingly patient for someone so simultaneously strong and inexperienced, Sutherland is happy to poke and prod at longer ranges if his opponent allows.

His gas tank has appeared deeper than one would anticipate but part of that may be due to the low pacing of his bouts. Though he is entering this bout as the slight underdog with much more to prove in the contest, Sutherland has a route to victory if he can drag this fight into deeper waters.

A lack of output is a bit of a concern for Sutherland but I find it hard to believe he will be outworked over a three-round period by Justin Tafa. That said, these two men have a clear power differential and Tafa will be looking to put it on display early and often.

The opening round will be chaotically dangerous for Sutherland but if he can escape it, I am intrigued by what the deceptively cerebral striker can do.

Bet: Sutherland Wins By Decision @ $4.00

At only 25-years-old, the sky seems to be the limit for Tom Nolan. Though he got off to a rough organizational start when Nikolas Motta nuked him in a single round, Nolan has since recovered nicely and strung together three straight wins.

Known as “Big Train”, Nolan lives up to the dubbing well as a towering 6’3” (191cm) lightweight. The length advantage he owns over the majority of his opposition has been put to good use, with rangy kickboxing becoming a specialty for Nolan.

The Australian favorite, Nolan is not only a long, lengthy striker with a mean streak but a southpaw, to boot. Nolan has looked better each time out and seems to be settling in nicely as a composed but powerful striker.

Where Nolan seems to be tested the most is on the mat. Though few have been able to consistently hold him there, Nolan has hit his back a few times in recent outings. Nolan continues to develop on that front but as he becomes a more effective striker, he will surely face an increasing onslaught of grappling attempts.

On that note, Charlie Campbell may not show much grappling urgency on paper but has been making serious efforts to improve in the area. Campbell competed several times in grappling competitions leading up to his most recent MMA bout and the skills crossed over successfully when he outpointed Trevor Peek.

Four successful takedowns contributed to the victory and it was clear from the start that Campbell sought to make wrestling a big part of the game plan. It’s a recent addition to his offerings but I expect Campbell to force wrestling again against the taller Nolan this weekend.

Campbell is a competent fighter with solid striking in his own right but at 6’0” (183cm), Campbell is accustomed to owning advantages he won’t enjoy this time around. Campbell has proven a volatile offensive fighter but defensive liabilities have landed him in hot water.

It would serve Campbell best to seek out wrestling against Nolan, but success on that front stands to be limited. Nolan is the taller, longer, more technical fighter and should be able to keep things largely where he prefers it. I don’t expect a complete drubbing but Campbell seems in over his head and likely to drown at some point before the final bell.

Bet: Nolan Wins By KO/TKO or Submission @ $2.55