UFC Fight Night Preview & Tips | Sunday 14 September

5-0 in the UFC, it’s hard to believe Jean “Lord” Silva made his UFC debut only last year. The Brazilian has been tearing through the competition, ascending the divisional ladder with shocking zeal. Impressive results litter Silva’s record but his process to find victory has proven surgically precise and utterly brutal.

Silva is an offensive juggernaut in every sense of the word, capable of ending a fight in a multitude of ways. Flying knees, elbows, counter-punches, and blitzing attacks alike all come out of the same man with a startling amount of force.

It isn’t raw power or overwhelming physicality that guides Silva to victory, it’s his accuracy and shot selection that sets him apart. Quick and powerful, yes but owning a firm control of distance with refined timing to tie it together.

But striking stand-outs have come and gone in the sport before, and Bryce Mitchell looked to be the one that would challenge Jean Silva in all the right ways. When Silva hunted front chokes and eventually ended the fight with one, a point was proven.

One of the last standing bastions of the Fighting Nerds that haven’t lost this year, Silva is finally receiving a match-up that most can agree is worthy of his explosive and chaotic nature. Few are more apt to dive into the chaos than Diego Lopes.

Effectively representing Mexico this weekend, Lopes hails from a background of both Brazilian and Mexican descent. The 30-year-old was last in action challenging Alexander Volkanovski for the title in what turned out to be a surprisingly disappointing performance.

Generally regarded as a devastating offensive fighter, Lopes has proven the ability to end fights with both knockouts or submissions. Lopes is quick to latch up chokes of any kind but generally does his most explosive work when slinging leather on the feet.

Respect must be given to him when he’s allowed to fish for submissions but he lacks as a wrestler and against elite opposition, he cannot necessarily dictate where the fight takes place. He is an opportunistic grappler but this fight is likely to take place primarily on the feet.

Lopes sits on the top-end of the division in terms of size and physicality but is still a bit under-baked from a technical standpoint; he’s had prime opportunities come and go as a result of his overzealous, somewhat inconsistent nature.

Though he’s the larger fighter here, Lopes has not demonstrated himself to be a particularly refined, rangy kickboxer. His power is borderline devastating any time he lands cleanly, but his defense is a liability and he has been fighting elite opposition with an air of uncertainty. It all combines for a fighter who is realizing his limitations and struggling to keep up with the level of competition he has now ascended to.

“Lord” Silva is operating on another level at this point and I don’t believe Lopes is the man to halt the momentum. I can see this contest going some rounds and being a bit more cerebral than some anticipate, but Silva should eventually find his timing, capitalize on an increasingly desperate foe, and close the show before the final bell.

Bet: Silva Wins By KO/TKO or Submission @ $1.75

When 2023 ended and Rob Font finished the year with a 1-2 record, most thought the veteran’s career was in a tailspin. Now enjoying a two-fight win streak where he was the underdog in both, Font is once again receiving the favor of sportsbooks and fans alike.

The decision win over Kyler Phillips was not only a big upset but served as proof of concept after Font switched to Tristar in Canada to work with Firas Zahabi. His follow-up victory over Jean Matsumoto earlier this year helped establish Font as a meaningful contender with vast experience under his belt.

At 38-years-old, this version is Font is the craftiest yet. A deep gas tank has served him well across a multitude of high-velocity fights while Font’s footwork and crispy boxing have garnered him a justified reputation across the division.

Where Font surprises is his ability to get back to his feet and the urgency in which he does so. Controlling the boxing specialist has been a reliable way to disrupt his offense and tilt things against him but recent outings have suggested Font is operating with more urgency than ever; he was grounded four times by Phillips and seven times by Matsumoto but only allowed 4:42 and 6:15 of control time, respectively.

Font may or may not be in the prime of his career but there’s no questioning his determination to continue improving and winning fights any way he can. Despite some hiccups here and there, Font’s durability and overall game has held up shockingly well despite the hectic, elite career he’s enjoyed.

Once again, Font will be tasked with staving off a new generation of fighter as he takes on 27-year-old David Martinez. The young man made his UFC debut earlier this year on a card featured in Mexico, ending things in a single round and propelling himself into another Latin-themed showcase.

The younger brother of strawweight prospect Melissa, hype has quickly started to mount for both competitors. For his part, Martinez pulled off a number of impressive-looking finishes en route to his first UFC appearance and continued the trend when he entered the Octagon.

Martinez is a striker who likes keeping things at range with lengthy kicks and straight punches serving as the typical agenda. Despite his youth, there is little particularly flashy about what Martinez does. This has allowed him to persist with consistency throughout fights, even notching two finishes in the fourth round before he got to the UFC.

Martinez is a sharp fighter with refined timing but this weekend will be the biggest challenge of his career by far. Savvy strikers and accurate wrestlers have taken on Rob Font in the past and it generally takes elite specialists to get past the veteran.

The Mexican is a powerful striker and I expect him to land some big shots on Font in this contest, but the more experienced man should be able to control the majority of the minutes. This bout may come down to narrow margins if Martinez outputs heavy offense but gets outworked as a whole; the fans will win no matter what, but Font should have his hand raised after three competitive rounds.

Bet: Font Wins By Decision @ $2.25

2-1 in his last three with that lone defeat being a point of debate, Jared Gordon seems to be experiencing something of a career resurgence at the age of 37. A common party in controversial decisions, Gordon has been picking things up a bit offensively and found finishes in his last two victories.

Everything is trending upward for Gordon even as he pushes his fourth decade on the planet. Owning a deep gas tank and the willingness to use it, Gordon is typically applying some kind of pressure in one form or another.

He is arguably at his best (and most exciting) when forcing his foe onto their heels with crisp and active boxing. But Gordon is fully capable of grinding a fight to a halt, something he has done on numerous occasions with a sneakily effective grappling game.

Gordon doesn’t complete a high volume of takedowns but will threaten the position and use it to transition into something else. To put simply, Gordon has done a fantastic job of mixing all his tools to form a cohesive, smooth style that works against a variety opponents.

On the other end of the cage will be a man cut from a similar cloth. Versatility has been the name of Rafa Garcia’s game since entering the UFC in 2021. The record of Garcia would suggest a pure grappler entering the cage this weekend but the Mexican native knows how to throw hands.

He lacks a KO/TKO since 2018 but don’t let that fool you; Garcia can box. He outputs crisp combinations and throws with confidence. Though he typically does want to get a fight to the mat, Garcia’s ability to stay relevant on the feet has proven immensely valuable as he steps up in competition.

Garcia put on a solid effort earlier this year when he outpointed Vinc Pichel but didn’t apply himself consistently, and that serves to be a worrisome trait going into a bout with Jared Gordon. Anything less Garcia constantly contesting the offense of Gordon will result in the Mexican falling behind.

Though both have shown similar skill sets as a whole, Gordon has proven the more reliable fighter. Time and time again, Gordon brings fights into his wheelhouse and gives himself the best chance at victory he can have. This weekend should serve as another opportunity for the veteran to drag another into his realm.

Bet: Gordon Wins By Decision @ $1.85

Now 13-10 in the UFC, things have remained as consistently inconsistent for Kelvin Gastelum as ever. 2-2 in his last four, Gastelum was in action earlier this year dropping a decision to Joe Pyfer. Though he put effort forth as usual, Gastelum was a step behind in multiple ways for the entire fight.

On paper, it may seem quick to say Gastelum’s best days are behind the 33-year-old. But a closer examination shows a pattern of decline in recent years, with more wars, closer fights, and tougher losses piling up in the wake.

That said, Gastelum still has a bit to offer and though he remains under-sized for the middleweight division, his gas tank, durability, and overall pluckiness have stuck around. That isn’t to say he is quite as effective as he once was in any aspect, but Gastelum’s ability to output a high amount of surprisingly tight offense continues to be a boon.

Gastelum hasn’t been quick to grapple in recent years but is difficult to establish a wrestling game on. Considering the depth of his competition, Gastelum’s takedown defense has held up fairly well. I don’t expect this weekend to change that trend even as Dustin Stoltzfus may try.

A veteran in his own right with nine bouts in the UFC, Stoltzfus took some time to get the ball rolling in the organization. Now 3-6 overall, Stoltzfus has alternated wins and losses for nearly the last four years.

Stoltzfus came up short in his last outing so that trend would serve to favor the native of the United States but things aren’t likely to pan out so easily. Stoltzfus is deceptively versatile fighter who has found a bit of a home for disrupting the strengths of his opposition.

Crafty and fairly durable, Stoltzfus mixes things up nicely and has reliable tools to offer both on the feet and in tie-ups. His grappling has been a particularly effective weapon in slowing down powerful strikers.

That said, Stoltzfus is likely to be forced into a striking contest and that is where he has his worst chance at victory this weekend. Stoltzfus is not a terrible kickboxer by any means but he lacks stopping power and often fatigues down the stretch when he cannot perch on a successful takedown for a breather.

There are many things that could be said about the potential of Kelvin Gastelum but even in 2025 he is a fairly dangerous fighter. His ability to finish the fight is, as always, questionable but I do expect Gastelum to stun Stoltzfus and generally have his way in this contest.

Bet: Gastelum Wins By KO/TKO @ $3.10

At only 21-years-old, this weekend represents both a grand opportunity and a huge step up for Santiago Luna. To this point he has been entirely successful but his entire professional career only spans a bit over two years.

Like most successful prospects these days, Luna is offense-minded with some weapons to offer everywhere. His record clearly suggests an affinity for snatching up submissions but the reality is a more versatile man with power in the pocket.

The native of Mexico is youthful and can get caught up in in dicey exchanges but generally comes away looking the sharper, more powerful striker at close range. He tends to operate in polarizing distances, surging in or hanging around on the outside, but he’s quick, opportunistic, and clearly has some stopping power in his limbs.

That said, Luna’s resume is meek to say the least. In fact, Luna’s most recent victory came over a 4-6 fighter who had little to offer in their short-lived affair. The dominance Luna has enjoyed clearly put the UFC on notice but this weekend is a monumental escalation in his career.

Now with three bouts in the UFC and finally getting his first victory earlier this year, things are beginning to look up for Quang Le. An LFA import who went 7-0 in the organization, Le has struggled to find the same success in the UFC but has been matched quite tough to his credit.

Le was put up against veterans in Chris Gutierrez and Long Xiao, failing to get past either one. The losses didn’t plummet Le’s stock but showed he needs time to develop properly. He showed another side when given that chance, pitted against Gaston Bolanos and dominating.

This time around, Le will be the more experienced man. The 33-year-old owns nearly twice as many fights as his foe and is already proving deceptively crafty. Le isn’t a devastating puncher and generally does his best work on the mat but he’s developing into an intelligent fighter who can play to his strengths.

Le is a surprisingly effectively grappler and he has managed to ground each of his UFC opponents even in losing efforts. Furthermore, he isn’t shy from top position and has a particular affinity for taking the back and choking his opponents.

Though it’s taken a bit of time for Quang Le to get going, he’s been fulfilling some of the potential that got him into the UFC to begin with. A striking contest between Le and Luna trends to be as dangerous as it is chaotic but things should be stabilized by grappling one way or another.

In that aspect, Le is the more proven fighter. The depth of his resume far exceeds Luna’s and though the Mexican will own heavy support from the crowd this weekend, Le is poised to pull off the minor upset and keep his momentum rolling.

Bet: Le Head To Head @ $2.10