One of the most anticipated Bledisloe Cup clashes in recent memory is upon us on Saturday, with a shaky New Zealand team hosting a resurgent Australia at the fortress that is Eden Park. It is well publicised that the All Blacks haven’t lost a game at the Auckland stadium since 1994, and the Wallabies have not won there since 1986, but there is very much a sense of vulnerability towards this All Blacks team, firstly losing in Argentina before suffering their worst-ever home loss in their last outing — a 10-43 thumping at the hands of South Africa. It was quite the collapse from NZ, going into the break with a 10-7 lead before going scoreless in the second 40 and well and truly breaking down in the final quarter, conceding 26 points for a historic loss. While conceding 40+ points marks a bad defensive performance, it was an even worse attacking display, barely touching the ball in the second half and seldom getting into South Africa’s red zone. Scott Barrett is out with a shoulder injury, but the returns of Codie Taylor, Cam Roigard and Cortez Ratima (on the bench) provide some positive talking points. Caleb Clarke comes off some strong NPC performances for a start.
Australia have been a fascinating team to watch in the Joe Schmidt era and their performances in 2025 have started to garner hope of an upwards trajectory for rugby union in Australia. That said, there is still a long way to go before this Wallabies team is close to the best in the world, and we have seen examples of that in their last two games against Argentina, with both following very similar scripts. First, in Townsville, the Wallabies prevailed 28-24 with a try almost seven minutes after the hooter, after trailing 7-21 at halftime. Next up, in Sydney, they again looked awful until the final 20 minutes, behind 7-28 until at the 65-minute mark, before they flicked the switch, scoring three tries before the hooter. However, the comeback wasn’t to be this time around, failing to mount much of an attack in the final phases, losing 26-28. The likes of Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii and Andrew Kellaway were excellent and the injection of James O’Connor off the bench was again hugely impactful. With O’Connor starting this week, the Wallabies’ backline is in good hands, but unfortunate injuries to Kellaway and Rob Valetini are certainly a blow.
It’s an electric backline named by Schmidt and while the All Blacks will almost certainly have the upper hand up front, the Wallabies will cause plenty of issues out wide. With some clear weaknesses in this ABs team, including the high ball, Schmidt will have his team well-prepared and as 12.5-point underdogs, the visitors are good value here.
Best
Australia +12.5 ($1.95)
Value
Anytime Try Scorer — Max Jorgensen ($3.70)
South Africa fully flexed their muscles in Round 4 of the Rugby Championship, humiliating New Zealand with a 43-10 demolition job in Wellington. It was a breathtaking display of rugby from the Springboks, who came out in the second half filled with determination and vigour, blitzing the All Blacks for five unanswered tries in the second 40 to record a historic win at the Cake Tin. Everything was on point for the Boks, from their running game to their work at the breakdown and at set piece, but perhaps their biggest weapon was the high ball, which won them plenty of ball in the All Blacks’ half and set up a lot of attacks that resulted in three, five or seven points. Damian Willemse was outstanding in the win and plenty of other Springboks put in huge shifts, including Ethan Hooker, Siya Kolisi, Jasper Wiese, Cheslin Kolbe and Canan Moodie, just to name a few.
Argentina managed to right their wrongs from the first Test against Australia, winning the rematch in Sydney 28-26 two weeks ago. There would have been some sweaty palms from those watching on, as the Wallabies threatened to steal another late victory against Los Pumas, as the visitors conceded three tries in the final 15 minutes to give Australia a sniff in the final minute. However, Argentina this time held firm, picking up another monumental win in Sydney and very much staying alive in the race for the Rugby Championship. Los Pumas were able to continually work their way into Australian territory and from there, either break down the hosts’ defence or build up the phases until they won a penalty, and the boot of Santiago Carreras was up to the task, as the first five-eighth went 8/8 from the tee for 23 points.
It will be a much tougher task for Argentina to enjoy that kind of regular field position and comfort in Durban, especially considering Rassie Erasmus has named a similar team to the one that whalloped the ABs. The star of that game, Willemse, has moved to fullback and Eben Etzebeth returns to the lineup, but there is no reason to believe that this Pumas team isn’t capable of making another tight contest. They have been there or thereabouts in three of their four games so far in TRC and this Springboks team has been far from consistent in 2025. Giving up 16.5 points, I am happy to bet against the Boks here.
Best
Argentina +16.5 ($1.90)
Value
South Africa 1-12 ($3.60)