Australia were rewarded for their decision not to settle for a draw last Saturday, with skipper Harry Wilson’s decision to go for a try while down by three points after the hooter ended up paying off, as Angus Bell crashed over the chalk to win the game for the Wallabies. The 28-24 win has kept the Australians in the hunt for their first Rugby Championship crown since 2015, currently just one point behind the leading New Zealanders, meaning there is a heck of a lot to play for in the final three rounds for Joe Schmidt’s men. It was another slow start from Australia, continuing their trend from the opening two rounds, and that got them into a rather grim-looking 7-21 hole in the first half. The hosts couldn’t keep a hold of the ball and were constantly being pinged, letting Argentina attack from all over the field and they were made to pay the price. However, the game was flipped on its head in the second half, as Joseph-Aukuso Suali’i scored the first of his two tries shortly after the break to get the hosts back in the fight. The young star made the most of a one-man advantage 15 minutes later, slicing through the Pumas defence to score and level the game, but a penalty goal to Argentina with just two minutes on the clock got the visitors back in front and looked to sink the Wallabies. Perhaps that would have been the case for Australia teams of years gone by, but not for the class of 2025, who refused to settle for anything less than a win, constantly going for a five-pointer deep in referee’s time, until Bell came up with the huge game-winner.
For Argentina, they will be feeling like the win slipped through their hands, especially after such a dominant first half. Their discipline was what led to their control early on, but that is precisely where they fell away as the game went on, perhaps linked to fatigue in the Townsville heat. The likes of Lucio Cinti and Santiago Chocobares in the midfield and Bautista Delguy on the wing caused plenty of issues in the opening 40, but the visitors were starved of possession and scoring chances in the second half, with their failure to secure the game’s final restart, keeping the door open for the Wallabies, being a good indicator of just how poorly things went in the second 40.
Some tough changes to the Wallabies’ 23, including an injury to Tom Lynagh, have seen Schmidt name an undermanned team and that is going to hurt them. Being without Len Ikitau is a hugely underrated blow and with Tane Edmed starting at #10, it’s hard to see this Wallabies backline humming, mounting some questions about how they’re going to score their points. Los Pumas have been highly impressive in 2025m and I expect a win from them in Sydney, with their composure and their experience to get the better of the hosts.
Best
Argentina +6.5 ($1.90)
Value
Argentina ($2.70)
A brutal, physical and gruelling Test match was played out between these old foes in Auckland last week and it was New Zealand who came out on top with a 24-17 victory. Injury breaks, substitutions and HIAs were in abundance, such was the intensity of this game but the All Blacks’ first half proved to be the difference-maker, effectively shutting the visitors out of the contest with a 14-3 half. New Zealand’s ability under the high ball ensured that they kept things generally tidy at the back, with Will Jordan and Damian McKenzie, who ended up having to play almost a full game off the bench, looking particularly assured. The ABs were much less dominant in the second 40, as their discipline and accuracy slipped a little, but some big plays late ensured that the Springboks weren’t able to force a tie. Ardie Savea was huge in game #100, including winning a trademark clutch turnover, and Beauden Barrett had a controlled game at first five-eighth, while Samisoni Taukei’aho and Du’Plessis Kirifi both had important contributions off the pine. Taukei’aho will start this week, as will Tyrel Lomax, while Noah Hotham returns from injury to take Finlay Christie’s spot in the starting team. Rieko Ioane has been dropped, seeing Leroy Carter start on his debut on the left wing, while McKenzie starts at fullback for the injured Emoni Narawa in a rejigged back three.
South Africa will take some solace in knowing that they were far from their best last week and still came within a try of the All Blacks at Eden Park. That’s not a bad result, all things considered, especially given their 11-point halftime deficit, and their bench certainly provided the impact that Rassie Erasmus would have been hoping for. Cobus Reinach was the pick of the bench players, scoring a try and providing some much-needed energy in the final 30 minutes, and his outside, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, had plenty of influential touches. However, the Boks came up just short, despite being on the ABs’ line with just minutes to play, and that has resulted in a slew of changes from Erasmus. Both Reinach and Feinberg-Mngomezulu have been rewarded with starts, while Aphelele Fassi comes in at fullback and Damian Willemse and Canan Moodie form a new midfield pairing. Jasper Wiese comes onto the back of the scrum and Lood de Jager starts in Eben Etzebeth’s place.
Given the changes to the Springboks XV, we are set to see a more free-flowing game in the capital but that will only suit the All Blacks. Scott Robertson has named a team full of strong ball-runners, including the debutante on the left wing, and that spells trouble for the Boks, who have failed to impress this season and have regularly looked a step slow, which will be made particularly evident against this NZ 23.
Best
New Zealand -5.5 ($1.90)
Value
Power Plays — Samisoni Taukei’aho & Wallace Sititi 2+ Tries Combined ($4.00)