Australia weren’t able to make it back-to-back wins in South Africa a fortnight ago, but they gave it another good crack. It was again the Springboks who started off better, getting out to a 7-20 lead in the first half, but as they have often done in 2025, the Wallabies bounced back to make for an exciting second half. An opportunistic try from Max Jorgensen, who collected a wonky kick through from James O’Conner to score, made the scores 17-20 and 20 minutes later Brandon Paenga-Amosa split through a maul to score. O’Connor, however, missed what was a very kickable conversion attempt, meaning Australia still trailed 22-23, and they were never able to hit the lead as the Boks sealed the deal with another try. That said, it was another encouraging outing from Joe Schmidt’s men and Rob Valetini was massive in his return to action, again proving to be one of Australia’s best and most consistent performers with his ability to get their attack going forward. Corey Toole had a solid debut, including scoring the game’s first try, and Fraser McReight showcased his importance again with a busy outing. Will Skelton has been forced to return to La Rochelle in France, forcing a shift in Australia’s pack this week, with Tom Hooper coming into lock, making way for the return of Harry Wilson. Tom Lynagh also returns at first five-eighth and Andrew Kellaway replaces the injured Tom Wright.
Argentina recorded their fourth-ever win over the All Blacks and their first-ever on home soil, upsetting New Zealand in a 29-23 victory in Round 2 of TRC. The Pumas were a completely different team in the rematch, picking themselves up rapidly after their 41-24 defeat in the opening round to get the better of the New Zealanders in most areas of the park. Much of Argentina’s hard work was done in the pack, as the likes of Pablo Matera, Marcos Kremer and Julian Montoya each put in massive shifts, even with Kremer coming off the bench. The defence of Los Pumas was much improved, affording few chances to the visitors, and the hosts definitely had the upper hand at set piece, making this a game that they thoroughly deserved to win. Bautista Delguy, Lucio Cinti and Santiago Chocobares were the most dangerous backs and they will have a big role to play on Saturday, with a relatively settled Pumas squad named.
A gripping contest is in front of us in Townsville and with warm, dry conditions on the cards, we’ll see plenty of running rugby. That will suit this Wallabies team, who have not been shy to run and attack in the Joe Schmidt era, and I expect everything to come together nicely for this Wallabies outfit. Set piece will prove to be a crucial battle, but the tactical and attacking advantage that Australia have will help them win well.
Best
Australia -6.5 ($1.90)
Value
Australia 11-20 ($4.00)
New Zealand left Argentina with a 1-1 record and they’ll be highly disappointed to not have won both games in South America, especially considering how strong they looked in the first clash. The hosts had no answers for the hot ball-running and the pace of play that the All Blacks played with in the Round 1 win, but it was New Zealand who came up short in the Round 2 rematch, having no answer for the physicality and the accuracy that Los Pumas brought to the game. That said, the All Blacks looked well and truly up for the contest early on, scoring the game’s first two tries through Billy Proctor and Fletcher Newell for a 13-6 lead, but a pair of yellow cards shortly after to Will Jordan and Tupou Vaa’i let Argentina hit right back to tie up the game 13-13 at the half. It was all Argentina for the opening 20 minutes of the second half, as the visitors really struggled to get their hands on the ball and while Samisoni Taukei’aho scored to get the ABs back within reach, another avoidable yellow card, this time to Sevu Reece, all but ruled out a comeback. Simon Parker was strong in his debut, regularly getting stuck in, as did Ardie Savea, but the polish and the discipline of New Zealand let them down in a big way. Scott Robertson has made plenty of changes to his lineup for this week’s clash, bringing in Emoni Narawa and Wallace Sititi, while another halfback injury, this time to Cortez Ratima, sees Finlay Christie start and Kyle Preston be named for a potential debut off the bench.
South Africa responded to their Round 1 loss against Australia with a 30-22 win in Cape Town to get their campaign back on track. While it would have been a relief to get back into the winner’s circle, it can’t be said that it was a convincing performance from Rassie Erasmus’ men, as they kept the door open for the Wallabies for much of the game. It was another hot start from the Boks, with Handre Pollard kicking eight points in the first 12 minutes of play, to go with a try from Canan Moodie, before Kwagga Smith bullied his way over for a commanding 20-7 South Africa lead. Things became much more scrappy for the Boks in the second half and as the Australians scored the first two tries of the period to get within one point, there was a sense of panic among the fans at Cape Town Stadium. However, the experience of this Springboks team prevailed this time around, as veteran Eben Etzebeth dug his way across the line to make the margin eight points and effectively secure the win for SA. Erasmus has largely stayed firm with this 23, but has promoted veteran lock Eben Etzebeth to the starting team, while Siya Kolisi and Pieter-Steph du Toit return from injury to form an elite Boks back row.
An intriguing showdown is on our hands, with plenty of chatter of the All Blacks’ 50-game unbeaten run at Eden Park being at risk on Saturday night. This Springboks team haven’t exactly been elite in 2025 but they showed their class in Cape Town late in the piece and you have to think that they will bring that level of focus and intensity to Auckland. Coming off a shock loss, the ABs will also want to be on top of their game, making for a blockbuster at Eden Park, but I can’t see New Zealand slipping up here. South Africa have been somewhat sloppy for the majority of their 160 minutes against the Wallabies — at home — and they have shown plenty of cracks, with their core players well on the wrong side of 30. The All Blacks’ pace of play and ability to counter attack will end up hurting the Boks and help New Zealand’s streak continue.
Best
New Zealand -4.5 ($1.90)
Value
Power Plays — New Zealand to Lead at Halftime by 1 – 7 & Win by 8 – 14 ($7.00)