Evan Psarras previews Week 3 of the 2025 NRL Premiership Finals.
With every win, the Sharks are gaining more believers that they can go on to win the premiership. They have won their way into another preliminary final despite being installed as the outsider in both finals’ games to date. They dismantled the Raiders and have now won their last five games – all by a double digit margin. Just the one change for the Sharks with Oregon Kaufusi replacing Hazelton (concussion). Huge news for Storm fans with Papenhuyzen, Blore and Hughes all named to return. The reigning Dally M winner (Jahrome Hughes) has somehow been named to return from a fractured arm after only three weeks, but we could see a late change with Jonah Pezet named on the extended bench.
Head To Head
Just like the second preliminary final, these two teams have faced off in a Grand Final within the last decade. In 2014, the Sharks ended their premiership drought with an epic 14-12 win over the Storm – their only finals win over the Melbournians in four meetings. At one stage from 2019-2022, the Storm won 5 in a row in this series, but the two sides have split the last 6 encounters (3-3). They won their respective home matches in the regular season with the Sharks winning 31-26 at home in Round 11 and the Storm bouncing back with a 30-6 win at this venue in Round 17. Xavier Coates has 5 tries in 5 appearances against the Shark wearing a Storm jersey but has failed to score in 2 of his last 3 against them. Harry Grant plays his best footy in this matchup with 7 career tries in 8 games as a starter against the Sharks.
Stats That Matter
Historically, the Storm are at their peak when coming off an extended rest. They have won their last 11 games at AAMI Park following a week off and that is accompanied by an 11-3 record as a home favourite in the last year. The Storm have covered the line in 11 of their last 15 when hosting the Sharks but have notably been successful at the line in only 37% of games following a win in the last year. The Ober has hit in 6 of the last 7 between these two sides at AAMI Park but recent trends suggest a shift. The Under is 5-0 in the Sharks last 5 away games and has held in 65% of their matches on the back of a win in the last 12 months. Mulitalo has been on fire with 8 tries in his last 5 games while KL Iro has at least one try in each of his last four games played interstate. Eliesa Katoa has a try in his last three for the Storm while Papenhuyzen is aiming to score a try for a fourth consecutive preliminary final.
Prediction
Giving the Sharks 8.5 start in this game is flat out disrespectful. They delivered as our best bet last week and are a genuine chance of taking down the Storm here. The Storm were anything but convincing against the Bulldogs who had to deal with multiple players shifting positions in that match. Prior to that they suffered heavy losses in consecutive games against the Roosters and Broncos. With respect to defence, I have more trust in the Sharks who have displayed a tremendous level of fitness in recent weeks – especially in the tail end of games. The Storm’s left side defence has looked vulnerable at times and that is great news for the Sharks with Hynes joining the trio of Trindall, Iro and Mulitalo in set plays down that edge. I am predicting a defensive battle which is great news for a Sharks upset!
Tips
Best Bet: Sharks +8.5 ($1.90)
Value: Sharks 1-12/Under 41.5 points ($7.00)
Same Game Multi: Mulitalo Anytime Try, Grant Anytime Try, Under 49.5 points ($14.41)
The Panthers quest for a fifth consecutive premiership remains alive following a serious statement against the Bulldogs. Nathan Cleary reaffirmed his position as the best player in the game in a thumping 46-26 win. The duo of Liam Martin and Casey McLean have been passed fit meaning the premiers will be rolling out the same 17 players. The week off has done the Broncos wonders with skipper Adam Reynolds back to steer the ship and Ezra Mam named to play a utility role off the bench. Tyson Smoothy starts in place of Carrigan (suspended) while Selwyn Cobbo is listed among the extended reserves.
Head To Head
They played out one of the greatest Grand Finals in the history of the game in 2023 with the Panthers overcoming a 24-18 deficit with 20 minutes to play. The Panthers have dominated this series in recent years with victory in 9 of the last 10 meetings including each of the last 5. The only meeting between them this season came in ‘Magic Round’ with the Panthers posting a commanding 32-8 win at this very ground. The Panthers have won the last 6 meetings between them at Suncorp Stadium and have held the Broncos to 12 or fewer points in all those games. There has been a correlation between the odds and the outcome with the Panthers having won 9 of their last 10 against the Broncos when installed as the betting favourite. There is a perception that there will be points galore in this match, but it is worth noting that the Under is 7-0 in the last 7 clashes between them at Suncorp Stadium.
Stats That Matter
The Broncos have found their best footy at the ideal time with a 5-0 record both straight up and at the line in their last 5 games. Similarly, the Panthers have come out swinging since resting their entire team in the penultimate round of the regular season. They have won their last three games by an average of 18.7 points with the wide players benefiting from slick backline movement in recent weeks. Brian To’o has scored three tries in his last two games and now has 17 finals tries in 17 games. On the other win, Alamoti crossed for a hat-trick against his former club and has 9 tries in his last 7 appearances. Reece Walsh and Karapani have led the way for the home side with at least one try in five straight appearances. The Broncos attack have piled on the points in the last month but that has not been the case in this matchup as they have averaged a very low 11.5ppg in their last 10 games against the Panthers.
Prediction
In the first half of their clash against the Bulldogs, we witnessed all the things that have made the Panthers four-time defending premiers. They completed 100% of their sets in the first forty, executed every set play to perfection, made the Bulldogs work off their line every single time, and wrestled them into submission. The 2023 Grand Final was the only instance in the last 10 meetings that the Broncos have troubled the Panthers, and they achieved this by spreading the ball early and attacking the edges. Ezra Mam scored a hat-trick in that game and if they want to increase their chances of winning, he must start! Either way, the Broncos do not possess the level of discipline required to win this game and will need to play a high-risk brand of football that will leave them forced to consistently defend their line. The absence of Carrigan should not be underestimated either as he is their defensive leader. The Panthers are a great bet to cover the line.
Tips
Best Bet: Panthers -2.5 ($1.90)
Value: Panthers 13+ ($3.15)
Same Game Multi: To’o Anytime Try, Alamoti Anytime Try, Under 49.5 points ($7.47)