Taranaki have slipped into a bit of a purple patch, now with three losses in their last four games after a tough 26-28 loss to Otago last Saturday. It was a high-level contest throughout and it looked as though the Bulls were going to come out on top at the 60-minute mark, as Arese Poliko barged his way over the line for a 26-14 lead, but a scoreless final 20 from the visitors resulted in a disappointing defeat. To make matters worse, Josh Jacomb missed a very kickable penalty goal with just six minutes on the clock that could well have won Taranaki the game, making this loss a very tough pill to swallow and dropping the Bulls down to fourth on the ladder. It’s fair to say that Taranaki looked the more consistently dangerous of the two teams with ball in hand, but their finishing touches often let them down, and the fact that they had just 40% possession came back to bite them.
Hawke’s Bay pulled off a thrilling 24-21 golden point victory over Bay of Plenty on Saturday, winning the Battle of the Bays in the process. Now with ownership of the ‘The Bay’ for the next year, it was an impressive victory from the Magpies and it was Lincoln McClutchie who was the hero, nailing a drop goal from 30 metres out which zipped through the uprights despite not being the cleanest of strikes, giving Hawke’s Bay their second win on the trot. It was a highly physical affair. Folau Fakatava’s sniping around the rucks led to two tries for the halfback and regularly kept the Steamers guessing in what was an influential performance, while Devan Flanders had another huge outing. Neria Fomai was dangerous and the veteran Tom Parsons was tireless, with the team now looking to make it three on the trot.
A trip to New Plymouth will not be easy going, but this Magpies team has found its form and their attacking firepower will be too much for the Bulls. The visitors have the superior bench and will end up running away with the game late in the piece, making them good value as underdogs. Taranaki are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games.
Best
Hawke’s Bay +2.5 ($1.85)
Value
Hawke’s Bay 1-12 ($3.30)
Counties Manukau pulled off a monster 64-10 win over Southland in Invercargill to make it two wins on the trot and keep their finals hopes alive. Six points behind eighth place with just three rounds remaining, there’s a long way for the Steelers to go if they are to make finals, but their performance on Saturday indicated that they are finding form at the right part of the season. As the Stags jigged over for the first try of the game and went blow-for-blow with Counties for the opening 30 minutes, it looked like this game was going to be a tight one, but the visitors had other ideas. It was a dream final 50 minutes of play for CM, scoring eight tries and 52 unanswered in an utterly dominant run. The usual suspects were strong for Counties, with Hoskins Sotutu, Jimmy Tupou, Etene Nanai-Seturo and Gibson Popoali’i all helping their team dominate, but perhaps the biggest boosts came in the returns of both Ioane Moananu and Dalton Papali’i. The forwards duo each scored a try and kept the Stags very honest in contact and at the breakdown, as the Steelers ran riot.
Auckland also made it two straight wins last week with a big victory of their own, crushing Manawatū 52-29. Much like with the Steelers’ game, Auckland looked like they were in for a back-and-forth clash inside the opening 30 minutes, before the Turbos put their foot down to score two tries before the break for a 12-22 lead. At that point, it felt like the Seagulls were heading for another underwhelming loss, but a powerhouse final 30 minutes of play bought the men from the City of Sails a huge win, both on the scoreboard and in the context of their season. Caleb Tangitau powered his way over the chalk in the 52nd minute to begin the onslaught, with Cohen Norrie, AJ Lam and Anton Segner also getting in on the try-scoring fun to end the game on a high.
Auckland will be eager to make it three wins on the bounce but Counties will present a big challenge in Pukekohe. With Papali’i in the lineup again and Cam Roigard set to come off the bench, it is a dangerous Steelers 23 and I am surprised to see Auckland as 4.5-point favourites. The Seagulls are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games.
Best
Counties Manukau +4.5 ($1.90)
Value
Counties Manukau 1-12 ($3.70)
Wellington slumped to another disheartening defeat last week, this time falling to Northland 26-43. Nothing went right for the Lions in the loss, as they constantly failed to make the most of their opportunities and gave the hosts way too many chances of their own, which the Taniwha took with both hands. The wet conditions in Whangārei didn’t help, but it also didn’t stop Northland from running riot with six tries, as Wellington faced some issues at set piece and had plenty of sloppy errors in open play. The odd bright touch from the likes of Callum Harkin, Julian Savea and Xavier Numia gave the visitors the occasional threat, but in all it was another poor display from the defending champions.
Speaking of poor displays, Southland produced an absolute stinker against Counties Manukau in a 10-64 defeat. It was the Stags’ heaviest defeat in almost three years but it didn’t necessarily follow the typical format of a blowout, with the Stags being within two points of the Steelers at the 30-minute mark. Tries from a fleet-footed Mitchell Dunshea and Scott Gregory inside that opening half-hour made it look like a tight tussle was in the works, but it was all counties from that point on. They really struggled for field position and continually slipped off tackles, giving up a whopping 12 line breaks to make for a disastrous day at the office. Their misery was compounded by an ankle injury to Semisi Tupou Ta’eiloa late in the first half, which has seen the star No.8 be sidelined for this week.
Wellington are bolstered by some big-name returns this week, including Peter Lakai, Ruben Love and Kyle Preston which gives them a big boost against the Stags, while Tupou Ta’eiloa and Faletoi Peni remain sidelined for Southland. That tips the scales firmly in Wellington’s favour, but as 15.5-point favourites, they cannot be trusted. The Stags have been awful the past two weeks but they are a much better team than that and have covered 11 of their last 13 on the road.
Best
Southland +15.5 ($1.87)
Value
Wellington 1-12 ($3.20)
Canterbury notched up their first successful Ranfurly Shield defence of this reign last week, beating Tasman 31-25 in a classic. The red and blacks needed every second on the clock to retain the Log o’ Wood, with George Bell’s 83rd minute game-winning try coming on the back of a 25-phase build-up in Tasman’s 22. It was a thrilling game of rugby, with excellent tries scored by both teams, but Canterbury’s composure and ability to execute late in the piece proved to be the difference, enjoying plenty of ball and field position to ultimately pull of the win and keep a hold of the Shield. It was another huge shift from Sam Darry that helped get them there, with the big lock getting involved plenty and being in Canterbury’s top three in carries and in tackles. Louie Chapman helped give his backs plenty of spark, which Ngane Punivai and Chay Fihaki benefitted from.
Otago are putting together an excellent season, currently sitting in second place on the ladder after a 28-26 victory over Taranaki last week. With a 5-2 record, the Razorbacks have held up very well on attack and defence this season but their biggest test awaits them, heading to play the unbeaten Ranfurly Shield holders in Christchurch. Otago haven’t held the Shield since 2019 — successfully mounting five defences before Canterbury won it from them — and the Razorbacks will be cautiously optimistic heading into Saturday’s showdown. Otago didn’t exactly make it easy for themselves last Saturday, conceding the first two tries of the second half to fall to a 14-26 deficit, but that seemed to bring the hosts back to life, with Cameron Millar dotting down after a patient build-up, before the Otago forwards took advantage of a yellow card to Taranaki’s Michael Loft. Marching into the 22 and then winning a penalty, Otago opted for a lineout before putting together a strong lineout drive to see Liam Coltman score to tie the game at 26-26, before Millar’s conversion gave them an all-important two-point lead, which they held onto to win the game. Christian Lio-Willie was excellent at getting Otago moving forward in the carry all game long, Dylan Pledger and Millar made for a great halves pairing again and Thomas Umaga-Jensen was excellent after an early injection off the bench.
In cruel news, Lio-Willie is set to miss the Shield clash due to bereavement leave, meaning the Razorbacks will be without their best player. That’s a tough blow ahead of their biggest game of the season so far, but this is still a very strong Otago team that is capable of picking up an upset win in Christchurch. With some real class to come off the bench, including George Bower and Sam Gilbert, we could see a late kick from the visitors to make for a nail-biter.
Best
Otago +10.5 ($1.92)
Value
Tri-Bet — Either Team By Under 7.5 ($3.10)
Tasman came agonisingly close to being the new holders of the Ranfurly Shield last week but they couldn’t hold on in the final minutes, losing 25-31. Leading for the final 25 minutes of play, the Mako were in the box seat for much of the second half, leading 25-19 at the 60-minute mark, with their backs regularly breaking the Canterbury defence to set up scoring opportunities, but they got more and more cagey as the game went on and things started to become stagnant in the final minutes, leaving the door open for the hosts to come back and hold onto the Shield, which they did. It was a heartbreaking loss for Tasman, who looked very dangerous in the opening hour thanks to some destructive play from Leicester Fainga’anuku and some nice touches from David Havili. However, they couldn’t hold the hosts out in the final 15 minutes, as the red and blacks scored 12 unanswered points to win the game.
Waikato needed every last drip of energy in them to get past North Harbour last week, notching up a 29-28 win. It was another disjointed performance from the Mooloos, but a late push, spearheaded by their big-name bench players Oli Mathis and Xavier Roe, got them over the line to save face against the winless Harbour. Things were looking grim for the Mooloos 15 minutes into the second half, as the visitors were awarded a penalty try and Roe was sent to the bin minutes after entering the game for a deliberate knock-down in a clear-cut try scoring opportunity, making the score 17-28 in Harbour’s favour. However, Tepaea Cook-Savage cleverly caught harbour napping to get one try back before Mathis cracked into Harbour’s 22 minutes later, setting up a try to Gabe Robinson to put the Mooloos in front and earn them the win.
Going off recent form, you could think that a Tasman blowout is on the cards here, but that is not how I see this game panning out. Waikato have an elite bench, including three All Blacks (Samipeni Finau, Luke Jacobson and Anton Lienert-Brown) and their starting team is capable of sticking with a Tasman team that is without Tiimoci Tavatavanawai, Ethan Blackadder and Mitchell Drummond, to name a few. A strong Mooloos finish will keep this game tight.
Best
Waikato +12.5 ($1.90)
Value
Tri-Bet — Either Team By Under 7.5 ($3.40)
North Harbour came agonizingly close to recording win #1 of their season last week but couldn’t seal the deal in Hamilton, losing to Waikato 28-29. It looked as though everything was coming together for the men from the North Shore early in the second half, with Felix Kalapu scoring on the back of a clinical start to the second 40 from the visitors, slowly but steadily making their way up the park before Kalapu showed good power to score from close range. Things only got better for Harbour less than 15 minutes later, as they were given a penalty try for a deliberate knockdown from Waikato, in a passage of play where Ben Brownlee looked likely to score in the corner. That gave NH a 28-17 lead with 25 minutes to play, but their old habits came back to haunt them in the final quarter. Their general organisation and their set piece both fell away at crucial moments, and some real defensive lapses especially hurt Harbour as they conceded two tries in the final 15 minutes to give up the lead and lose the game in crushing fashion.
Northland regained their spot in the top eight last week with an impressive 43-26 victory over Wellington. The rain was falling heavily in Whangārei but the Taniwha didn’t let it dampen their attacking spirits, running in six tries on the back of an impressive night out from the forwards. There was the perfect combination of precision, patience and power from the Northland pack, dominating at scrum time while being more than happy to build up the phases on attack to get the Taniwha into scoring territory, where they often took advantage. In the backs, it was another great outing from Corey Evans, who was a constant threat whenever carrying, and Jordan Trainor had some classy touches. Up front, Rob Rush was tireless again while fellow flanker Jake Heenan worked hard and Chris Apoua won penalty after penalty.
With a strong team named by Northland coach Ryan Martin, another win is on the way for the Taniwha. Their pack will have it all their way and there is plenty of danger in the backs, with the scoreline potentially getting messy in this clash if the visitors are firing on all cylinders.
Best
Northland -3.5 ($1.90)
Value
Northland 11-20 ($4.60)
Manawatū crumbled in dramatic fashion against Auckland last Sunday, losing 29-52. Everything was looking rosy for the Turbos at halftime, with back-to-back tries, first from Jordi Viljoen and then from Ngani Laumape, late in the first half giving them a 22-12 lead. Auckland were the first to score in the second half but Mosese Bason hit back almost immediately for Manawatū, finishing off a great counter-attack to restore a 10-point lead for the visitors. That would be all she wrote in terms of the Turbos’ scoring though, as Auckland went on a try-scoring rampage at Eden Park in the final 30 minutes, while Manawatū’s defence was constantly vaporised. In the few chances that the visitors had deep inside Auckland’s half in the second 40, they were quick to throw the ball away, resulting in a barrage of Auckland attacks that resulted in 40 second half points from the hosts, resulting in a heavy loss and an exit from the top eight.
Bay of Plenty came out on the wrong side of the scoreboard after an extra time thriller against Hawke’s Bay last Saturday. The 21-24 defeat saw all sorts of drama, but BOP were barely given a sniff in golden point, as the Magpies held onto possession for all of the almost four minutes before hitting a drop goal to deliver the loss to BOP in front of the Tauranga Domain faithful. After the rain arrived early in the match, it was clear that the Steamers’ attacking prospects took a blow, with plenty of errors taking place but there were some huge defensive plays from the hosts to keep them in the contest. Naitoa Ah-Kuoi, Jacob Norris and Joe Johnston put in big defensive shifts but the star for the Steamers was debutant Kele Lasaqa, who scored a great individual try and brought plenty of energy and pressure elsewhere.
Two ambitious attacking teams are set to lock horns in this clash and that sets us up for a thriller to end the round. Both sides have shown plenty of free will with ball in hand this season and I expect a big total at the end of the 80 minutes in Palmy. The over has hit in the Turbos’ last four games and I expect that streak to continue.
Best
Over 62.5 ($1.90)
Value
1st, 2nd or 3rd Try Scorer — Kele Lasaqa ($4.00)