Counties Manukau remain without a win in 2025 after suffering another disappointing loss last week. The 22-43 defeat dropped the Steelers’ record down to 0-5, remaining in second-last on the ladder as we passed the halfway point in the season. Conditions were not friendly in Pukekohe on Saturday, with substantial limiting Counties’ chances to run the ball, but that didn’t stop Taranaki from spreading the pill, running away with the game in the second 40. The Steelers were more than up for the fight in the opening half, going blow-for-blow with the Bulls, thanks to tries from Sione Molia and Hoskins Sotutu, setting up a 15-14 lead at the break. A disastrous start to the second half was ahead of Counties though, as some tactical and personnel changes from the visitors broke the game wide open with 17 points in the first 20 minutes of the half. The Steelers were starved of possession and were forced to camp in their own half and while Sione Takai breathed some life back into the game with a five-pointer, the Bulls sealed the deal with two late tries.
North Harbour are the only team to have had a worse start to the season than Counties, sitting on one measly competition point. That bonus point came back in their 24-46 loss to Taranaki in Round 2, and while they came closer to victory last week, a 7-19 loss to Bay of Plenty sees the men from the North Shore spend another week as cellar dwellers. Conditions were slippery at North Harbour Stadium, making for a rather sloppy contest, but it was the visitors who adapted best, forcing a yellow card to Tom Savage in the opening 10 minutes after repeated infringements deep in NH’s half. BOP capitalised with a try moments later before two penalty goals made it a 0-11 hole for the hosts at the break. Harbour were better in the second 40, getting on the board thanks to some quick thinking from Luke Campbell, reducing the margin to just four points. However, Harbour had little to offer from that point on, giving up a soft try in the final 10 minutes and they weren’t able to claim the losing bonus point late in the piece, resulting in another disappointing loss.
With the bottom two teams in the competition going head-to-head, we can’t expect a high-level contest on Thursday night. As two of the worst attacks in the NPC, I expect this game to be a bit of a grind and, with that, the under to hit. The under is 3-1 in CM’s last four games and 4-1 in Harbour’s games this season.
Best
Under 60.5 ($1.87)
Value
Power Plays — Either Team to Lead by 1 – 3 at Half Time ($4.00)
Otago continued their strong form in Round 5 but it didn’t translate into a win, as they fell to Tasman 31-27 in Nelson. It was a devastating loss for the Razorbacks, who worked their way into a 21-17 halftime lead and had a 27-24 lead with no time left on the clock, thanks to a late penalty goal off the boot of Cameron Millar. However, they couldn’t keep the hosts out in the dying moments, as Tasman’s lineout maul rumbled over in the corner to hand Otago a four-point loss. It was a tough outcome for the Razorbacks, who arguably deserved the win in Nelson having had the better opening 70 minutes, but the Mako proved to be too strong in the final 10. Christian Lio-Willie was again immense for Otago, seemingly being everywhere on both sides of the ball, while Dylan Pledger had another standout game at halfback and hooker Henry Bell produced a big performance.
Northland pulled off another massive win last week, making it three wins from their last four games, with a 27-22 victory over Hawke’s Bay. The Magpies headed to Whangārei with a 3-1 record and as 5.5-point favourites, but the Taniwha ensured this game was a contest throughout, leading for the majority of the contest before Sam Caird proved to be the game-winner with a close-range try in the 70th minute. It was fitting that one of the tight five was the try-scoring hero, given the impressive performance of almost all of the front rowers and second rowers from the hosts. Matt Moulds was everywhere, as was Allan Craig, and the set piece of the Taniwha was rock-solid, setting them up for a huge win.
It’s been an elite run of results for Northland in the past two weeks but they will be in for a tough matchup in Dunedin on Friday and I can’t see them getting past this Otago team. Their pack and their dangerous backs will be a little too much for the Taniwha to handle, which will see the hosts run away with the game late on. Otago are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games and Northland are just 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.
Best
Otago -8.5 ($1.95)
Value
Otago 11-20 ($3.70)
Hawke’s Bay have lost two games on the bounce after falling to Northland 22-27 last week. The game presented a decent opportunity for the Magpies to bounce back from their 7-26 home defeat to Canterbury the week prior but Hawke’s Bay seemed a little flat and off their game in the far north, lacking the accuracy to get the job done at Semenoff Stadium. They certainly weren’t without their chances, enjoying plenty of time and possession inside the Taniwha’s 22, but they often failed to crack the hosts’ defence or coughed up possession, leading to empty visits. When they did score, they did so in style, with Nick Grigg showing off great strength to score the opener, before Miracle Fai’ilagi did the same just 10 minutes later. Zarn Sullivan was the third and final try scorer for the Magpies, with his try and Harry Godfrey’s subsequent penalty goal putting HB up 22-20 with 15 minutes to play, but they couldn’t hold on for the win.
Wellington’s up-and-down season continued on Sunday, this time hitting one of their peaks in a 36-17 triumph. It was a breezy victory for the men from the capital, scoring inside the first two minutes after a line break from Julian Savea sent Ruben Love away. Xavier Numia then ran a beautiful line to streak away for a try, making for a 17-0 lead, and while things slowed down from there, back-to-back second half tries from Hugo Plummer and Losi Filipo made the margin 22 points to see the Lions sail home. Wellington were the far better team in the wet conditions, defending tightly and handling well while still attacking with some ambition. Savea got stuck in to good effect, Caleb Delany carried well and Peter Lakai was effective in his hour on the paddock, helping the Lions get within one point of the top eight.
It’s a weakened Wellington team this week, missing the likes of Savea and Lakai, and that will come to hurt them against the Magpies. Hawke’s Bay are a different beast at home and cover over 56% of their games at McLean Park. Wellington are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games and will struggle to keep up with the attack of the hosts.
Best
Hawke’s Bay -6.5 ($1.90)
Value
Hawke’s Bay 11-20 ($4.00)
Manawatū were crushed 14-53 in Christchurch last week, causing some serious whiplash after the 38-28 victory over Wellington the week prior. Nothing went right for the Turbos against the table-toppers, and their woes began in the first minute as Joe Gavigan spilled the ball in Manwatū’s own 22, giving Corey Kellow the chance to barge over the chalk from close range. Jamie Hannah followed suit 10 minutes later for the hosts but the Turbos were able to respond before the break, making it 7-17 at the half. However, things got much messier in the second 40 for the visitors, leaking six tries to see the hosts run riot, as a blowout unfolded. Manawatū simply couldn’t keep the Cantabrians out of their 22 in the second half, as the kicking game and the ball running of the hosts tore the Turbos in two. TK Howden fought hard, Joe Fabish defended valiantly and Kyle Brown had some good carries but they were the few positives from this Manawatū performances.
Waikato’s Ranfurly Shield reign was short and not very sweet, failing to mount a single defence as Southland came to town to record a 10-25 win. It was a classic Shield encounter, at least in the first half, where each team scored just one try apiece, with the Mooloos taking a 10-8 lead into the sheds. Manaaki Boyle-Tiatia was the lone try-scorer for Waikato, driving over off a lineout maul under a pile of bodies and Lima Sopoaga kept the scoring coming minutes later with a penalty goal to make it a 10-3 lead for Waikato. However, the hosts would go scoreless for the final hour of play, as the Stags played the better wet-weather footy and ultimately bullied them in the contact. Anton Lienert-Brown tried to keep the Mooloos going forward with plenty of carries but there is no sugar-coating what was a disappointing result for Waikato.
With a pair of sub-par attacks locking horns in what is forecast to be a soggy Palmerston North, I don’t have high-hopes for big totals on either side of the scoreline here. We’ve seen some very low totals from these teams this season, including just 35 and 45 total points in the Mooloos’ last two games, and this game is another that is set for the under. The under is 10-3 in Waikato’s last 13 games and is 4-2 in the Turbos’ last six home games.
Best
Under 60.5 ($1.90)
Value
Tri-Bet — Either Team By Under 7.5 ($2.50)
Southland returned to Invercargill as the proud new holders of the Ranfurly Shield after a dominant second half saw them beat Waikato 25-10 last week. The Stags kept the hosts scoreless in the final 60 minutes of play and on the other side of the ball, the relentless running of the Stags saw them continue to keep the points ticking over. Semisi Tupou Ta’eiloa was the man who scored Southland’s first try and he continued his elite play for the full 70 minutes that he was on the park for in an outstanding display from the bustling No.8. Tupou Ta’eiloa was the man who set up Southland’s second, providing an inside ball for Nic Shearer to run away to score, before Fletcher Morgan dotted down from a chip over the top to extend Southland’s lead to 15 points with 20 minutes to play. That was enough of a buffer to see the Stags home and crown them as the new Ranfurly Shield holders. Faletoi Peni was a wrecking ball in the midfield, constantly cracking the gain line, and Ale Aho, Sean Withy and Jack Taylor all provided plenty of grunt up front to help Southland towards a famous win.
Canterbury held onto their status as the competition’s only unbeaten team with a 53-14 demolition of Manawatū last week. It was another clinical display from the Cantabrians, who were ruthlessly clinical from the opening minute, as Corey Kellow pounced on an error from the visitors to score almost immediately after the kick-off. Jamie Hannah kept the try-scoring coming just minutes later, forcing his way over the line, and while the Turbos started to show some resistance from there, keeping the hosts scoreless for the next 30 minutes, Kellow’s second try just before the break proved to be a sign of things to come. It was Manasa Mataele who started the scoring in the second half, expertly finishing off a cross-kick, and that set the tone for the second half, with the hosts running in five more tries for a resounding victory.
The Stags will head into this game as big underdogs against this loaded Canterbury 23, and it’s hard to see their Shield reign lasting beyond Saturday afternoon. However, they will make this game a tussle, as they have done all season, and this is another game set for the under. Eight of the last 11 Ranfurly Shield matchups have hit the under, as have all five of Southland’s games this season and four of Canterbury’s five.
Best
Under 54.5 ($1.92)
Value
Canterbury 1-12 ($3.00)
Taranaki got back to winning ways last week, with a big 43-22 triumph over Counties Manukau on the road. It took a while for the Bulls to get going in Pukekohe, but a red-hot Josh Jacomb kicked them into life in the second 40 to lead his team to another bonus point victory. The first five-eighth has been perhaps the best player in the NPC this season and he was on top of his game again on Saturday, scoring 18 points and being a huge influence in his team’s attack, alongside Adam Lennox who was shifted from wing to halfback shortly after halftime to provide a real spark. With Taranaki heading into the break down 14-15, something needed to change from Neil Barnes’ side, and the electric bench performance proved to be vital, while Daniel Rona and Kaylum Boshier worked hard throughout the contest.
Bay of Plenty were desperate for a win in Round 5 and they achieved just that, getting past North Harbour 19-7. It was not the prettiest display from BOP in what were slippery conditions on the North Shore, but tries from Kurt Eklund and Veveni Lasaqa, as well as a trio of penalty goals off the boot of Kaleb Trask sent the Steamers back home with four valuable competition points. After consecutive losses in Rounds 3 and 4, it was an important win for BOP but there will likely be an element of frustration stemming from it, with a heap of chances being squandered deep in Harbour territory. Lasaqa always looked dangerous and Leroy Carter again proved his quality at this level, but there are more than a few things that BOP will need to clean up if they are to be true contenders this season, and this Sunday’s clash against Taranaki will provide the perfect litmus test for where they currently stand.
This is a game that I expect both teams to get up for and, with that, a thriller is in front of us. Taranaki have shown a few chinks in their armour this season and this athletic Steamers team is capable of undoing the hosts. The Bulls deserve to be favourites but the 6.5-point line is lofty and the visitors are the play here. BOP cover 59% of their road games and Taranaki are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven at home.
Best
Bay of Plenty +6.5 ($1.92)
Value
Bay of Plenty ($2.60)
Tasman recorded their fourth win on the bounce on the bounce on Saturday but they were made to work by Otago, requiring a try after the hooter to prevail 31-27. It was a gripping contest in Nelson and this star-studded Mako team showed off their quality late in the piece, scoring two tries in the final 10 minutes to turn a seven-point deficit into a four-point win. Tasman came out of the gates hot, as David Havili strolled over in the sixth minute, but an Otago try shortly after and an injury to star midfielder Timoci Tavatavanawai threatened to derail the Mako. The visitors scored their second try to make it 10-14, but Tavatavanawai’s midfield buddy Leicester Fainga’anuku made sure to get his team with a trademark hard-running try. Fainga’anuku would go on to be an absolute force in the game and a big reason why the Mako came out on top, but the big moments for Tasman came in the final 10 minutes, as Tomasi Maka forced his way over the line on two occasions, firstly on a close-range run before finishing off a driving maul to win Tasman the game in dramatic fashion.
Auckland’s season continues to go downhill fast, again looking hopeless in a 17-36 defeat to Wellington. It’s now a 0-5 record for Steven Bates’ team, with their finals hopes starting to fade away, and there wasn’t much from their performance last week that indicated a change in fortune is coming soon. The Aucklanders quickly slipped into a 17-point-sized hole within the opening 20 minutes of play, as the hosts dominated territory and possession, clearly adapting best to the wet Porirua conditions. Angus Ta’avao found his way over the line shortly afterwards and Auckland had more than their fair share of chances to score again before the half, but consecutive tries from the Lions to open the second half’s scoring all but sealed the deal for Wellington, dropping Auckland to a 0-5 record.
On the surface, you would have to think Auckland have another L coming their way but I expect their pack to perform well against this reshuffled Mako team, without the likes of Ethan Blackadder, Quinten Strange and Sione Havili-Talitui in the starting team. With no Fainga’anuku, Havili or Mitchell Drummond in the backs too, this undermanned Tasman team are at risk.
Best
Auckland +8.5 ($1.90)
Value
Auckland ($3.00)