The Crows minor premiership success was short-lived and they now face exiting the finals series in straight sets following a wire-to-wire loss against the Pies. They failed to kick a single goal in the final term of that match and cannot afford a repeat as the Hawks were lethal in front of goal against the Giants. They booted seven goals in the opening term alone with the trio of Gunston, Ginnivan and Macdonald kicking three goals each in the 107-88 win. There will not be an empty seat at the Adelaide Oval.
Head To Head
In the last few years home ground advantage has played a part in this series with the host winning 6 of the previous 8 meetings. They met twice in the regular season this year with the home team winning narrowly on each occasion. The Hawks extended their win streak against the Crows to three games in a 47-44 nailbiter in Round 14 but the Crows ended that with a 101-87 win at this ground in Round 21. The Crows have won 4 of the last 6 meetings when installed as the betting favourite but the most significant trend is a 5-1 Over record in the last 6 clashes hosted by the minor premiers.
Stats That Matter
A streak of 9 wins to end the regular season earned the Crows a second chance and history could work in their favour. They are 5-1 both straight up and at the line in their last 6 games following a loss with the loss to the Pies just their second in their last 13 as a home favourite. With respect to the Hawks, they were 1-5 as an away underdog leading into their match against the Giants which makes that win a surprise. The Crows had won 20 of 23 second quarters prior to be outscored last week so look for them to improve in the second term.
Prediction
The Crows have proven to us that the best time to back them in the last year is after a loss. They have scored 100+ points in 4 of their last 5 following a loss and I do not expect a repeat performance from the Hawks as the home team has won 7 of the last 8 games involving them. Also taking the trio of Laird (20+ in last 12), Impey (20+ in last 9) and Worpel (20+ in last 4) in a disposals treble.
Tips
Best Bet: Crows -3.5 ($1.90)
Value: 2nd Quarter Margin – Crows by 9-16 ($5.40)
Same Game Multi: Laird 20+ disposals, Impey 20+ disposals, Worpel 20+ disposals ($2.55)
Accurate kicking helped the Lions stay within touching distance of the Cats in the first half of their qualifying final, but they were outscored 53-30 in the second half. The loss is great news for neutrals as it means the first ever QClash in a finals series with the Suns bringing momentum with them into the match. A fortnight ago, they clinched a spot in the finals for the first time in the club’s history and followed that up with a closing two minutes for the ages to win their elimination final against the Dockers by a single point!
Head To Head
They have faced off twice a year in 14 of the 15 regular seasons since the Suns entered the competition with 2019 (COVID) being the only exception. The QClash has historically been a good source of premiership points for the Lions who have won 12 of the last 14 meetings. That includes a run of 7 consecutive wins at The Gabba and dating further back, an 8-2 line record in the last 10 clashes as a home favourite. At one stage the Over had hit in 8 of 9 encounters hosted by the Lions but the Under is 3-0 in the last 3 between the pair played at The Gabba.
Stats That Matter
Lions fans should not be alarmed just yet as their teams have won 5 of the last 6 following a loss with a 5-1 line record in those games. That includes victory in their last three in that scenario with an average winning margin of 41.7 points in those games. In comparison, the Suns have a 50% strike rate at the line in games following a win which is accompanied by a 1-3 record (straight up and at the line) in their last 4 as a road underdog. The Suns have led at quarter time in more than 70% of their games this season and another fast start here will increase their chances of causing an upset.
Prediction
The last fortnight has been one of extreme emotion for the Suns and their energy levels (physical and emotional) must have taken a hit. They were odds-on to finish in the top four prior to consecutive losses (Giants and Power) and we should not forget that they led by 25 at the main break last week before almost making a meal of it. There will be no donations from the Lions who have a phenomenal record both in this matchup and following a defeat. They have held the Suns to an average of 52.7ppg in the last three meetings at the Gabba and another superior defensive display will earn them a spot in the preliminary finals.
Tips
Best Bet: Lions -11.5 ($1.90)
Value: Both Teams To Score 60 – NO ($3.40)
Same Game Multi: Under 169.5 points, 1st Quarter Suns +2.5, Will Ashcroft 25+ disposals ($4.10)