The Magpies were able to overcome a 4th quarter deficit in the final round against the Demons to end a three-game losing streak. More importantly, he secured a top 4 finish instead of having to play an elimination game on the road. Meanwhile, the Crows extended their streak to 9 wins in a run that helped them to secure the minor premiership. They met twice in the regular season with the Pies winning by 10 points at the MCG in Round 10. That victory made it 10 in a row against the Crows but they were able to end the drought in a nailbiter (59-56). The Crows have won only 2 of the last 7 meetings as a home favourite with a 1-6 line record in the last 7 meetings overall as the betting elect. Points are extremely hard to come by in this matchup with the Under holding in each of the last 5 meetings overall and 5 of the last 7 at the Adelaide Oval.
Best Bet: Under 160.5 points ($1.88)
SGM: Tribet 1-15 Either Team By Less Than 15.5, Nick Daicos 25+ Disposals, 2nd Quarter Winner – Adelaide ($4.87)
The Cats enter the finals on the back of a 6-game win streak and their dominance in that stretch should not be underestimated as they won those games by an average of 57.7 points. One team they failed to beat this season were the Lions who completed the season double against them. When you add last year’s preliminary final, the Lions have won the last three meetings but have notably won only 2 of the last 10 clashes when installed as an away underdog. The Over has hit in 7 of the Cats last 8 home games at the MCG but beware the Lions as they have led at half time in their last 10 night matches. They have also won their last 8 games played in Victoria. It doesn’t stop there as they have won 7 of their last 8 as an away underdog with a perfect 8-0 record at the line in those matches.
Best Bet: Lions +6.5 ($1.90)
SGM: Over 171.5 points, 1st Half Winner – Lions, Bailey Smith 25+ Disposals ($4.27)
A run of 9 wins in their final 10 games earned the Giants a home final but it is still a win or go home scenario. The Hawks have been in fine form themselves having won 8 of their last 11 with their three defeats coming against the Lions, Crows and Dockers. The venue is very important in this matchup as the home team has won 14 of the previous 17 battles. The Giants have won the last 4 at home with the Under holding in all those games. The Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings overall which suggests any significant lead will be difficult to overcome. Historically, the Giants have been fast starters in this spot having won the first half in their last 6 day matches played in Week1 of the finals.
Best Bet: Under 169.5 points ($1.88)
SGM: 1st Half Winner – Giants, 150 Points or Less, Toby Greene 2+ Goals ($8.29)
An upset win over the Bulldogs combined with a Suns loss to the Power earned the Dockers a home elimination final. The Suns were able to clinch a first finals appearance with a huge win in their catch up game but heading west has not been their strength. They are 0-4 both straight up and at the line in their last 4 away games against the Dockers and have lost their last 8 games in Western Australia as the outsider. This is in line with their recent form – losses in their last three road games overall with an 0-3 line record and the Under holding on in all three matches. The Under will likely continue as it is 10-3 in the 13 clashes between these two teams. Hayden Young is the best option in disposal markets as he had registered 20+ in 13 of his last 15 home games.
Best Bet: Under 165.5 points ($1.88)
SGM: Dockers WIN, Hayden Young 20+ Disposals, Wire-To-Wire Any Other Result ($4.68)