The long-awaited NFL season is upon us and what a sensational week of action we have with Super Bowl champions Philadelphia hosting rivals Dallas, Brazil hosting an AFC West clash between the Chiefs and Chargers, a Sunday Night Football for the ages with Baltimore travelling to Buffalo and capped off by a compelling Monday Night Football affair between NFC North rivals Minnesota and Chicago.
LA Chargers +3 (v Kansas City)
Super Bowl losers have had a rough time of it in Week 1, covering just six of 25 while those off a loss of 14 or more are 2-9 against the number. Jim Harbaugh has covered all five Week 1 matches while Justin Herbert is 25-16 against the spread on the road and this ‘home’ game is being played in Sao Paulo.
Atlanta +2.5 (v Tampa Bay)
A stat you will see plenty this week: Week 1 division home underdogs are 18-4 against the number since 2012. This is a tough spot for the Bucs too with Baker Mayfield a poor 6-14 against the spread when favoured in a division matchup.
Cleveland +5.5 (v Cincinnati)
Division home underdogs in the opening week of the season have covered 18 of 22 games since 2012 while Joe Burrow and the Bengals have typically been slow starters with Burrow covering just three of 10 Week 1 and 2 games.
Chicago +4.5 (v Minnesota)
Week 1 division home underdogs are 18-4 against the spread since 2012 while Week 1 Monday Night Football games have seen the underdog go 29-13-1 against the spread.
West Coast teams playing on the East Coast cover at 77% in the opening five weeks of the season while favourites in Week 1 off four or fewer wins have covered just eight of 21 so this is a super spot for the Pete Carroll Raiders.
Under 43 Arizona @ New Orleans
The under hits at 67% in Weeks 1-3 when a home underdog is in play since 2021 while the under is 9-3 in Week 1 indoor games when the total is 45 or less.
Under 47.5 Cincinnati @ Cleveland
The under hits at 67% in Weeks 1-3 when a home underdog is in play since 2021 while the under has hit in six of the last seven matchups between these AFC North rivals.
Under 48.5 Minnesota @ Chicago
The under hits at 67% in Weeks 1-3 when a home underdog is in play since 2021 with the under saluting in four of the last five meetings between the Vikings and Bears.
Dallas +7.5 (at Philadelphia)
The Cowboys have been the laughingstock of the NFL but they are a great bet in Week 1 with underdogs of 6.5 or more 49-27 against the spread in Week 1. Dak Prescott has covered 29 of 41 division matchups.
LA Chargers +3 (v Kansas City)
Super Bowl losers have had a rough time of it in Week 1, covering just six of 25 while those off a loss of 14 or more are 2-9 against the number. Jim Harbaugh has covered all five Week 1 matches while Justin Herbert is 25-16 against the spread on the road and this ‘home’ game is being played in Sao Paulo.
Baltimore (at Buffalo)
John Harbaugh is the most reliable Week 1 coach in the NFL with a 12-5 cover record on opening weekend while Lamar Jackson is 19-3 against the spread when playing on the road on turf. The Ravens are a very good play.
Chicago +4.5 (v Minnesota)
Week 1 division home underdogs are 18-4 against the spread since 2012 while Week 1 Monday Night Football games have seen the underdog go 29-13-1 against the spread.
All four of these plays were listed among the best plays or best underdog with the exception of Carolina, who fulfil a couple of key angles here including being a road underdog in Weeks 1-4 off not playing in the playoffs that covers at 59% while favourites in Week 1 off four or fewer wins like the Jags are 8-13 against the spread.
Underdogs of 6.5 or more are an incredible 49-27 against the spread in Week 1, making the Titans a bet. Week 1 division home underdogs are 18-4 against the spread since 2012 so the Seahawks are a play. Detroit have been the best cover team the last three years with a 72% cover record while the Lions have covered 13 of 16 against the Packers.
Burner Marvin Mims is not a high volume receiver but by the backend of last season he was used in very smart ways to get him the ball early and let him make plays. He scored six touchdowns in his last seven regular season games with four-plus targets in his last six – a number he reached just once through his first 11 games.
Achane scored 12 touchdowns in 17 games and no longer has Raheem Mostert to vulture TDs. Jeanty was a touchdown scoring machine at Boise State with 49 touchdowns in his last two seasons and now plays for run-first coach Pete Carroll. Gibbs was an elite scorer last year with 20 touchdowns in the regular season and two more in the playoffs.
Josh Allen has a tendency to run more in big games – he cleared 34 yards in all three playoff games last year as well as in eight regular season games including against the Chiefs and Lions. Khalil Shakir topped 46 yards in all three playoff games and in nine of his first 10 regular season games last year. Derrick Henry is an underrated pass catcher.