Madison Keys was among the first round casualties and was joined by teenage sensation Victoria Mboko. Defending champion Aryna Sabalenka made it through in straight sets with her biggest challenger Iga Swiatek scheduled to play first up on Arthur Ashe Stadium. The American duo of Gauff and Anisimova will also be on the feature courts with Osaka another name to keep an eye on.
The conversation leading into this one is not whether Swiatek will win, but how dominant she will be and if the match will last for an hour. I have grave fears for Arango here and will not be surprised if she gets double-bageled. She has lost her last 4 WTA Tour matches and has struggled to make the main draw of most tournaments – losing convincingly in qualifiers. In contrast, Swiatek has gone to new heights and on this surface, is playing better than ever before. Covering big handicap starts can be dangerous but not with Swiatek as she is relentless and plays every point as if it is her last.
Bet: Swiatek -7.5 ($1.60)
We were all in of Gauff at the French Open but as was the case after her first major win at the US Open, her form has tailed off since. She was a 6-3 6-0 winner over Tomljanovic at the Olympics last year but a match on clay is not the ideal indicator. Recent form is more relevant and Gauff is 4-4 in matches played since she won her second Grand Slam title. Straight set losses to wang and Yastremska were unexpected to say the least and it is worth remembering that Tomljanovic has done some damage here in the past. She beat the trio of Muchova, Serena Williams and Samsonova in her best finish here (quarter finals 2022) and will not be intimidated by the sheer size of Arthur Ashe Stadium. Moreover, she recently pushed Tauson to three sets and beat Zarazua who just knocked out Madison Keys. Really like the Overs.
Bet: Over 17.5 games ($1.71)
Value: Tomljanovic To Win A Set – YES ($3.90)
A run to the final of Wimbledon was a reward for the hard work that Anisimova has put in but the 6-0 6-0 loss to Swiatek in the decider will have bruised her mentally. A convincing win over Raducanu in Montreal will be helpful as will a favourable matchup to start her campaign. Birrell has had extreme difficulties on serve with a total of 45 double faults across her last 5 matches. The most concerning part for the Aussie is that she hasn’t exactly faced a long list of highly ranked players during that stretch. Will be backing Anisimova to cover the games handicap.
Bet: Anisimova -5.5 ($1.85)
If Osaka can replicate the level of tennis that she produced in Montreal, the former two-time champion could be a danger in the second week. She posted straight set wins over Svitolina, Tauson and Ostapenko before losing to Mboko in the final. Minnen on the other hand has lost her last four WTA main draw matches in straight sets. Minnen has lost in the opening round at each of the last two majors she has played and 11 of the 19 Grand Slam appearances in her career. Cannot see her winning a set here.
Bet: Sets Osaka 2-0 ($1.40)
Arango v Swiatek: Swiatek -7.5 ($1.60)
Tomljanovic v Gauff: Over 17.5 games ($1.71)
Anisimova v Birell: Anisimova -5.5 ($1.85)
Minnen v Osaka: Sets Osaka 2-0 ($1.40)
Boulter v Kostyuk: Kostyuk -3.5 ($1.95)
Krueger v Kenin: Kenin WIN ($1.78)
Collins v Cristian: Over 21.5 games ($1.91)
Baptitste v Siniakova: Over 21.5 games ($1.80)
Siegemund v Shnaider: Siegemund +3.5 ($2.10)
Jones v Lys: Jones WIN ($2.10)
Cirstea v Sierra: Under 20.5 games ($1.95)
Zakharova v Avanesyan: Zakharova WIN ($1.57)
Boisson v Golubic: Boisson WIN ($2.25)
Alexandrova v Sevastova: Under 20.5 games ($1.85)
Haddad-Maia v Kartal: Haddad-Maia WIN ($2.10)