The draw is starting to take shape and it is no surprise to see Alcaraz, Djokovic and Fritz still in this half of the draw. The biggest threat to them in this section is another American Ben Shelton who has been playing lights out during the US Open series. Former finalist Casper Ruud is out as are fellow seeds Mensik and Nakashima.
Darderi is part of the current wave of Italian men making a huge impact on men’s tennis. He is not as well knows as his fellow countryman (Sinner, Musetti etc) but is in career best form. Made the 3rd Round of Wimbledon and has equalled that here but will not be going one better. Alcaraz was in devastating form against Bellucci, another Italian, dropping a total of only four games in that match. He was completely locked in and clearly has his eye set on another showdown with Sinner in the final. There will be no complacency from the 2022 champion.
Bet: Alcaraz -8.5 ($1.85)
Predicted Djokovic would drop a set against Svajda but the 24-time major winner will not be concerned as his game improved exponentially as the match went on. Faces a familiar foe in Cameron Norrie and it is a matchup he had great success in. The H2H 6-0 in Novak’s favour and this will be the third meeting between them this year. Norrie managed to take a set off him in Geneva but was picked apart weeks late at the French Open with Djokovic posting a dominant 6-2 6-3 6-2 win. The Brit has won only 2 of the 17 sets they have contested and I do not have him adding to that tally here.
Bet: Sets Djokovic 3-0 ($1.70)
It was anything but smooth sailing for last year’s runner-up Taylor Fritz. The American was a tiebreaker away from going two sets down but was able to steady the ship and get through unscathed. On paper, a matchup against qualifier Jerome Kym looks like a stroll in the park, and it should be. At 6 foot 6, Kym’s game is built around him serve but there is not enough behind it to trouble Fritz. In what is his first main draw appearance at a major, Kym will learn from the experience of playing on Arthur Ashe Stadium but it will not go well for him. Think he fades poorly in the second and third sets.
Bet: Fritz -6.5 ($1.85)
In what shapes as a good day for the top seeds, Ben Shelton will run riot against Mannarino. The American has been in scintillating form and his aggressive brand of all-court tennis is very difficult to handle. He generates a substantial number of free points on serve and provides opponents with a massive target to pass when at the net. Moreover, he has been utilising his slice backhand to neutralise baseline rallies and has not been shy to take on the forehand down the line. Mannarino may have won the first two meetings between them but Shelton crushed him 6-2 6-3 at the Canadian Open a few weeks ago. He won 90% of 1st serve points and almost two thirds of 2nd serve points. Mannarino will not be breaking serve. Shelton to cover the handicap is he BEST BET of the day.
Bet: Shelton -5.5 ($1.83)
Djokovic v Norrie: Sets Djokovic 3-0 ($1.70)
Darderi v Alcaraz: Alcaraz -8.5 ($1.85)
Kym v Fritz: Fritz -6.5 ($1.85)
Shelton v Mannarino: Shelton -5.5 ($1.83)
Bonzi v Rinderknech: Rinderknech +2.5 ($1.75)
Lehecka v Collignon: Under 34.5 games ($1.80)
Blanchet v Machac: Over 36.5 games ($1.91)
Tiafoe v Struff: Struff +4.5 ($1.83)