The trio of Medvedev, Michelsen and Griekspoor were the only seeded players in the bottom half to be knocked out in the opening round with Medvedev’s match making global headlines. He managed to save a match point in the 3rd set but Bonzi showed incredible resilience to come from a break down in the fifth set. It was smooth sailing for Alcaraz and Djokovic with the theme to continue today.
Who is Svajda will be the question on many lips. He showed tremendous promise as a junior where he was the back-to-back USTA Boys Under 18s champion and defeated Shelton 6-1 6-4 6-1 in one of those finals. He earned his first ATP World Tour ranking point at the age of 15 but struggled with his transition to the pros. The penny may have finally dropped as he won two Challenger Tour events in July with wins over Basavareddy and Mannarino in that stretch. Has a good 2nd serve which is critical to any success against top-ranked players. Djokovic did what was required in his win over Tien but did drop serve multiple times. Svajda is capable of replicating that which gives his a good chance to take a set.
Bet: Svajda To Win A Set – YES ($2.10)
Alcaraz was the last man in the bottom half to complete his first round match and his win over Opelka went according to plan. He took care of business on serve and was able to break once in each set which was more than enough to grab a straight sets win. The America had a notable weapon (serve) but Bellucci does not possess anything in his arsenal that can trouble the Spaniard. Bellucci had 53 unforced errors in three and a half sets before Shang retired which does not bode well for this matchup. I am expecting the lefty to force the issue and he will not be able to hit the 3-4 power shots required in each rally to get Alcaraz out of position.
Bet: Alcaraz -7.5 ($1.75)
Last year’s runner-up Taylor Fritz made the perfect start to the tournament. Despite making only 57% of 1st serves, he defeated countryman Emilio Nava in straight sets. He held serve on every occasion and I am expecting that theme to continue against Harris as the South African does not break with any level of regularity. Harris came through the qualifiers here on the back of a ‘serve plus one’ tennis – to the extent that he won 24 of 24 (100%) 1st serve points in his qualifier against Daniel Agjilar. Unfortunately for Harris, the free points on serve will be limited and that will expose his weakness in the baseline exchanges. Fritz in straight sets.
Bet: Sets Fritz 3-0 ($1.73)
It is hard to ignore the hype surrounding Joao Fonseca. He was ranked no.1 as a junior, won the boy’s singles here and has already won an ATP Tour title. As a result, he is consistently overvalued by the market including this match. Machac has made the 3rd Round or better in 5 of his last 7 major appearances which includes a run to the 4th Round here 12 months ago. The Czech registered wins over Alcaraz, Djokovic, Dimitrov and Rublev in 2024 and dropped a total of only five games in his opening match here. Taking him with the handicap start and making it the best bet of the day!
Bet: Machac +0.5 ($1.80)
Djokovic v Svajda: Svajda To Win A Set – YES ($2.10)
Bellucci v Alcaraz: Alcaraz -7.5 ($1.75)
Harris v Fritz: Sets Fritz 3-0 ($1.73)
Fonseca v Machac: Machac +0.5 ($1.80)
Rinderknech v Davidovich-Fokina: Davidovich-Fokina -5.5 ($1.80)
Thompson v Mannarino: Mannarino -2.5 ($1.75)
Bonzi v Giron: Bonzi WIN ($1.98)
Darderi v Spizzirri: Darderi -2.5 ($1.83)
Norrie v Comesana: Norrie WIN ($1.45)
Lehecka v Etcheverry: Sets Lehecka 3-1 ($3.75)
Mensik v Blanchet: Blanchet +1.5 Sets ($2.75)
Nakashima v Kym: Under 38.5 games ($1.91)
Tiafoe v Damm: Damm To WIN A Set – YES ($1.83)
Shelton v Carreno-Busta: Over 33.5 games ($1.85)
Struff v Rune: 1st Set Score After 6 Games 3-3 ($2.10)
Collignon v Ruud: Sets Ruud 3-0 ($1.95)