Sinner and Alcaraz continue to widen the gap to the rest of the field. They have contested the last two Grand Slam finals and barring a monumental upset, the two will line up again on the final Sunday of the tournament. We will get a good look at several of their rivals on Day 1 including 24-time major winner Novak Djokovic and the American duo of Shelton and Fritz.
The 2023 US Open was the last major success for Novak Djokovic and adding to that tally will not be easy. He has failed to make it past the 4h Round in 3 of his last 5 appearances in New York and has not been as dominant in the early rounds at the level in recent times. He has dropped a set in the opening round at 2 of the last 3 majors and has not played a competitive match since losing to Sinner in straight sets at Wimbledon. Tien is a youngster on the rise and this year alone has posted wins over Zverev, Shelton, Rublev, Opelka and Shapovalov. He’s a lefty that likes to use the angles and I fancy him to take at least one set.
Bet: Tien To Win A Set – YES ($1.91)
Nobody has won more matches than Shelton during the American hard-court swing. He made the semi finals in Washington before winning hist first Masters Series event in Toronto and topped it off with a run to the quarters in /Cincinnati (lost to Zverev). Gets a very favourable matchup to kick off his campaign with Buse being a clay court specialist. His best results have come on the red dirt while he has been on the wrong end of some heavy defeats on this surface – at Challenger Tour level and against lower ranked players. This one is schedule for the day session which means Shelton will get the most out of his booming serve. Buse will not be able to generate a single break and will bow out in straight sets.
Bet: Sets Shelton 3-0
The fellow Americans meet for the second time in as many tournaments with Fritz a comfortable 6-4 6-4 winner in Cincinnati a fortnight ago. He improved to 2-0 in the H2H but it is his dominance on serve in Cincy which needs to be highlighted. Fritz won almost 80% of all service points and I cannot see Nava making enough of an impact in return games to make this competitive. A finalist here 12 months ago, Fritz will break serve 4+ times in the match and cover the games handicap with ease.
Bet: Fritz -6.5 ($1.75)
The wheels have fallen off the Medvedev steam train. The former US Open champion Lost to Moutet in Washington and struggled to beat Svrcina in his opening match in Toronto. A loss to Popyrin ensued and was followed by an early exit against Adam Walton in Cincinnati. Is 1-3 in Grand Slam matches this season which includes an opening round loss in Wimbledon against…..Bonzi! Medvedev had 12 double faults in that match and was only able to win 43% of 2nd serve points. Bonzi posted wins over Tsitsipas, Musetti and Arnaldi in Cincinnati which is more than enough to give him a real chance here. Taking him with the handicap and to post an upset win.
Bet: Bonzi +6.5 ($1.75)
Value: Bonzi WIN ($4.20)
Djokovic v Tien: Tien To Win A Set – YES ($1.91)
Shelton v Buse: Sets Shelton 3-0
Nava v Fritz: Fritz -6.5 ($1.75)
Medvedev v Bonzi: Bonzi +6.5 ($1.75)
Mensik v Jarry: Over 39.5 games ($1.85)
Shevchenko v Davidovich-Fokina: Sets Davidovich-Fokina 3-0 ($1.91)
Lehecka v Coric: Coric +6.5 ($1.91)
Darderi v Hijikata: Darderi WIN ($1.57)
Nardi v Machac: Over 36.5 games ($1.80)
Mannarino v Griekspoor: Griekspoor -1.5 ($1.80)
Thompson v Moutet: Moutet -1.5 Sets ($1.67)
Ugo Carabelli v Etcheverry: Set 1 Winner – Etcheverry ($1.48)
Navone v Giron: Navone WIN ($1.77)
Carballes Baena v Rinderknech: Under 37.5 games ($1.95)