At one stage from 2005 through to 2007, the duo of Federer and Nadal accounted for 11 consecutive Grand Slam titles. With Djokovic and Murray later joining the party, the so-called ‘Big 4’ dominated men’s tennis. That is only something we can dream of right now as the gap between the top two (Sinner and Alcaraz) and the rest of the field is getting bigger. They have won the last 7 majors between them and have contested the final in each of the last two.
Alcaraz will have been disappointed with his performance in the Wimbledon final but he could not have asked for a better preparation than the one he has had. Opted to bypass Canada with the Cincinnati Masters being his sole lead-in tournament and he ticked every box. Outside of winning the title, he played a flawless semi final to beat Zverev and was up 5-0 in the first set before Sinner retired ill in the final. Won a five se thriller against Sinner here in 2022 en-route to his firs ever major title and pending a miraculous performance of injury, the two will meet again.
Sinner is the only threat to Alcaraz and vice versa for this tournament, and the foreseeable future at the majors. They have already had some epic battles and when at their best it is difficult to split them. A high fever supposedly prevented the world number 1 from showing us his talents in the Cincinnati final but there could be more to it as he has withdrawn from the mixed doubles here. We will know more throughout the first week, but New York is notorious for humid conditions which means any ongoing issue could reoccur.
Quarter 2 Winner – Karen Khachanov ($9.00): Backing one player in each of the two quarters that Sinner and Alcaraz are not in. Surprised to see Khachanov at this price when you consider that he made the finals of the Canada Open and is coming off a quarter finals appearance at Wimbledon. He has previously made the final four in New York and is in a section of the draw that includes a list of players that are all beatable – namely De Minaur, Tsitspas, Rublev and Zverev.
Quarter 3 Winner – Taylor Fritz ($4.30): Made his lone Grand Slam finals appearance here a year ago but replicating that effort will not be easy as his potential semi final opponent is the man that denied him a major championship – Sinner. Is in the same quarter of the draw as Djokovic but the 24-time Grand Slam winner must beat the likes of Tiafoe, Michelsen and Rune before a potential quarter final showdown. Fritz should breeze into the second week with his likely early opponents being Nava, Baez and Nakashima. None of them are beating him and if he is to meet Novak in the quarters, he’ll be half this price.
Novak Djokovic ($13): As we have seen at the last two majors, Djokovic has more than enough quality left in his game to stroll into the second week but the prospect of having to beat Sinner and Alcaraz in consecutive matches is beyond him. If you were to tell me that the top two would fall by the wayside it would be a case of chips in Novak. Sadly for him, the top two are not going anywhere anytime soon.
Alexander Zverev ($19): Was a runner-up at the Australian Open and has made the quarter finals or better in 7 of the last 10 majors but his chances of claiming that elusive maiden Grand Slam are decreasing. Has constantly been outplayed by either Sinner of Alcaraz and the Cincinnati Masters was another example. He made 75% of 1st serves yet was broken 4 times in two sets. Put a line through him and everyone else.
Jack Draper ($21): Was seeded 4th at Wimbledon but an arm injury has prevented him from playing a competitive tournament since. Has been overtaken by Fritz in the rankings as a result and the bad news about that is that he now falls in the same quarter as Sinner. Without any tennis in his lest for the last 2 months, he’ll struggle to make it through the first week.
Daniil Medvedev ($41): This is the time of the year that Medvedev shines but that has not been the case in 2025. His lone major success came in New York, and he has made a further two finals here. He has also has title winning runs at both the Masters lead up events (Canada and Cincinnati) but suffered uncharacteristic losses at both events this time around. Lost to Moute in Washington and struggled to beat Svrcina in his opening match in Toronto. A loss to Popyrin ensued and was followed by an early exit against Adam Walton in Cincinnati. Is 1-3 in Grand Slam matches with back-to-back opening round losses at the French Open and Wimbledon.
Andrey Rublev ($101): It is rather ironic that he fell short in the quarters of Toronto and Cincinnati as that has been his speciality at the majors throughout his career. Has an 0-10 career record in Grand Slam quarter finals and will not be ending the drought in the next fortnight.
Holger Rune ($67): Has lost in the opening round here in 3 of his 4 previous appearances including each of the last two. We see his talent in spurts, but he has been unable to find the level of consistency required to win big matches over five sets. This is the reason why he is yet to make it beyond the quarter finals at Grand Slam level.
Stefanos Tsitsipas ($151): Has almost forgotten how to play tennis. Hired Ivanisevic in the hope of turning things around but couldn’t handle the hard truths that were told to him. That relationship ended quickly, and his father is back on board. Lost to O’Connell, Bonzi and Yunchaokete in the lead up which highlights his current struggles. It is hard to comprehend that the same player has made multiple major finals and is one of a handful of players to have defeated the trio of Federer, Nadal and Djokovic in the same calendar year.
Casper Ruud ($151): As a former finalist here, he knows his way around the ground at Flushing Meadows but is still struggling to recover from a knee injury. Suffered an embarrassing loss at the French Open, did not play Wimbledon and has lost his last two matches (Khachanov and Rinderknech).
Winner
Best Bet: Alcaraz ($2.70)
Quarter Betting
Quarter 1: Sinner ($1.30), Cobolli ($41)
Quarter 2: Khachanov ($9.00)
Quarter 3: Fritz ($4.33)
Quarter 4: Alcaraz ($1.40)