UFC Fight Night Preview & Tips | Sunday 24 August

12 straight wins would be impressive enough for anyone but Zhang Mingyang has taken it a step further with consecutive first-round stoppages. Win or lose, Mingyang hasn’t even seen the second round in a bit over seven years – a staggering and accurate measure of his nuclear capabilities.

Mingyang is only 3-0 in the UFC but each victory has escalated in quality. His most recent appearance – the destruction of a listless Anthony Smith – helped prove Mingyang is ready for bigger fish. With such decisive results it’s hard to argue.

The light heavyweight bomber is predictably deadly when he lands but he isn’t terribly aggressive in the traditional sense. Confident in his power and durability, Mingyang often puts both on the line by exchanging with the opposition.

Mingyang isn’t one to plow forward and wing at foes but is happy to trade punches. The native of China generally comes out ahead as the more forceful fighter and it’s worth mentioning his relatively large size for the division.

It’s no surprise Mingyang receives star treatment this weekend as the headliner of a card monikered “UFC Shanghai”. He finds favorable matchmaking in the form of a towering but vulnerable Johnny Walker.

A Brazilian dynamo who has spent recent years training all around the world, Walker has spent roughly seven years in the organization as much a meme-producing commodity as he is a potential divisional contender.

Walker’s high-flying offense net him highlight reels early in his career but fighters in the upper-echelon have found the gaps in his loose, wild surges. Some of his recent outings have suggested a better future for Walker as he stabilizes his 6’6” (198cm) frame to a lengthy advantage, but he has seldom been able to remain disciplined on that course.

Riding a two-fight losing streak, Walker was most recently taken out by the sneaky Volkan Oezdemir in a single round. For fans of Walker, the loss did little to stoke the flames of optimism. Hot off the heels of a miserable showing, this weekend serves as yet another great challenge in the hectic career of Walker.

Zhang Mingyang has practically everything going for him and I doubt he will squander the opportunity. Mingyang likely closes the night out with a big bang and continues his incredible stretch of first-round finishes.

Bet: Mingyang Wins By KO/TKO @ $1.45

Though Aljamain Sterling has only managed a 1-2 record dating back the last two years, it isn’t fair to say he’s been entirely inactive as a fighter. Recent endeavors in competitive grappling have been a success and Sterling now finds himself in a five-round affair against another perennial contender.

Most recently, Sterling came out on the losing end of a decision to Movsar Evloev. The two exchanged takedowns and displayed terrific grappling all around but ultimately Evloev did a bit more and got the verdict.

Sterling made a good account of himself in the defeat though, even finishing the fight with more control time. Sterling, now 36-years-old, is arguably the most refined fighter he’s ever been and does seem to have gas left in the tank for entertaining showdowns in his new division.

The “Funkmaster” is not a powerful striker but has solid timing and deceptive skills on the feet. Typically his whole game works as a way to set up his wrestling and ultimately chase the back but Sterling deserves credit for developing a genuinely effectively striking style.

A decade in the organization is beginning to wear on Sterling but his performances inside the cage have been solid overall. That said, this weekend should be a welcome step down for both men after dealing with young upstarts in Evloev and Diego Lopes.

For Ortega, the bout with Lopes was bittersweet. Nearly put to sleep in the second round, Ortega rallied back in classic fashion to win the next frame. He would eventually lose a decision but Ortega has proven no shortage of heart.

A fellow veteran with a decade in the UFC under his belt, Ortega has challenged for the title twice and come up short as many times. Though he’s touched the top, Ortega hasn’t been able to establish footing at a championship level and that remains as true today as ever.

Ortega is two years younger than Sterling but has decidedly more miles on the odometer. Ortega is durable, almost to an inhuman level, but all the damage he’s absorbed over the years are sinking in. The late-fight surge of Ortega remains a dangerous characteristic but he has shown some clear degeneration in his overall status.

A grappling specialist who has turned into something of a zombie on the feet, Ortega is offensive-minded but defensively absent. Recent years have seen his output fall off a cliff as he awaits a tired foe to encroach on.

It’s hard to say just how much Brian Ortega has left when his recent appearances have seen him just absorb damage and try to come back late. At any point of their respective careers, it would be reasonable to suggest Sterling would be a tremendously tough task for Ortega.

At this stage, it looks to me that Sterling has far more to offer. The quicker fighter and far superior wrestler, Sterling should find a strength advantage in tie-ups and come out ahead in scrambles. Five rounds put more time on the clock but I don’t think the outcome is altered by the duration. Sterling can find success everywhere and I expect his hand to be raised after an undramatic 25 minutes.

Bet: Sterling Wins By Decision @ $2.10

It took a while, but Sergei Pavlovich is back on track. Losses to Tom Aspinall and Alexander Volkov have aged exceptionally well and were nothing to be ashamed of to begin with. But it was Pavlovich’s return to action this year that saw him get back to winning ways and take a decision over Jairzinho Rozenstruik.

It wasn’t a blistering affair but Pavlovich showed some of the vintage dynamism that helped carry him to this level. Even at his worst, Pavlovich is capable of contesting in any area of a fight but there is a clear difference to his efficacy depending on his motivation.

A menacing presence inside the cage, Pavlovich has very heavy hands and an equally stifling top game. When he’s firing on all cylinders, he’s deceptively quick and simultaneously physically overwhelming. He can be outmaneuvered by slicker fighters, but it’s a hostile airspace for every second.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta will be looking to replicate that mobile and active game plan while avoiding the nuclear bombs of the Russian. Now a remarkable 7-1 in the UFC, Cortes-Acosta has compiled an unlikely run off the back of solid conditioning, a plucky attitude, and fairly high volume.

Not every fight of his has been a thrilling showcase but Cortes-Acosta has proven a fairly reliable fighter in a division full of inconsistency. Most recently, he nearly doubled the volume of Serghei Spivac and took a clear decision win.

The respectable gas tank of Cortes-Acosta has been a notable factor in his success but he’s also a bit quicker than his foes expect. A divisional dark horse who knows how to win minutes and stay ahead of opponents, Cortes-Acosta is unlikely to perform decently in-between big moments.

It’s not unreasonable to call Cortes-Acosta the more consistent fighter with a deeper gas tank. It’s likely he’ll keep his feet moving and his jab pumping as he looks to outwork a comparably plodding foe. It may influence the beginning but I am doubtful it tells the entire story.

Of these two men, only one has the ability to take it to the floor. If Pavlovich finds himself in top position, he will likely control the brunt of the round and has the ability to end the fight from there. Even on the feet, Pavlovich’s power and willingness to exchange with the opposition will favor him in any remotely even trades.

Cortes-Acosta is a solid fighter who will continue to produce good results in the division, but Pavlovich seems a threat too long, powerful, and experienced for the young Dominican. Look for Pavlovich to continue his upward march and navigate closer to a critical rematch.

Bet: Pavlovich Wins By KO/TKO or Submission @ $2.05

Though 1-3 in his last four, it was his most recent appearance that got Su Mudaerji on the board. Giving up six takedowns put some drama into the split decision, but Mudaerji dominated on the feet and rightfully had his hand raised against Mitch Raposo.

The victory was a much-needed one for Mudaerji, who has looked solid on a number of occasions even in defeat. 4-4 in the UFC overall since 2018, the results have not consistently went Mudaerji’s way but that hasn’t told the whole story.

The native of China has struggled a bit in recent years but displays particularly sharp striking every time the cage door closes. Mudaerji has predictably struggled with wrestlers/grapplers and that remains true to this day. To his credit he has spent time with multiple teams in the hopes of sealing up the gaps, but it hasn’t quite paid off yet.

That said, Mudaerji is an effective striker who has been able to find success on the feet against solid opposition. Mudaerji utilizes his range well and though he isn’t as big a puncher as his record may suggest, he still hits hard enough to dissuade opponents from wading forward and overwhelming him.

A striker by nature in his own right, Kevin Borjas is the underdog this weekend but didn’t let that stop him from a victory last time out, either. A unanimous decision win over Ronaldo Rodriguez got Borjas back on track after a two-fight skid to offensive dynamos in Joshua Van and Alessandro Costa.

One of the few Peruvian fighters on the roster, Borjas has a solid gas tank and set of skills but has been matched pretty tough since entering the UFC. At 27-years-old one may wish for a more rounded out game but Borjas does effective work on the feet and has proven a fairly reliable gas tank throughout his career.

Borjas is not a terribly strong puncher but he stays relevant on the feet even in losing exchanges. Durable and willing to lean on that asset, Borjas has a tendency to take more risks and throw more punches if he feels that he’s either falling behind or beginning to overwhelm his foe.

Neither man is shy and both excel in kickboxing contests. I do not expect much grappling to take place despite both having vulnerabilities on the mat. At the end of the day, it’s hard to bet against Su Mudaerji in a fight to be largely contested on the feet.

Mudaerji may not be able to force a finish but he is the more experienced fighter with a deeper resume. At this stage, everything should favor the Chinese fighter to varying degrees. Look for “The Tibetan Eagle” to find another victory and tilt his UFC record to the positives once again.

Bet: Mudaerji Head To Head @ $1.58

For 24-year-old Taiyilake Nueraji, a UFC debut has felt like an inevitability. In fact, astute fight fans may remember Nueraji collecting a highlight reel knockout over Han Seul Kim on Road to UFC just a bit over two years ago.

Nueraji didn’t get a contract then but racked up three more first-round finishes and made it an easy call. Now, Nueraji is favored in what could be considered a step up in competition for the young Chinese fighter.

The record of Nueraji shows a passionate finisher who has seldom been out of the first round. The rate of knockouts looks great on paper but there’s substance to the style and it’s powered by a lengthy 6’2” (187cm) frame. With a similarly long reach, Nueraji has found a home for long elbows and thudding foes from a tall stance.

Like many fighters with power and youth on their side, Nueraji can get a bit overzealous. Swinging for the fences isn’t uncommon when he has his man hurt, and those kinds of wild surges can be detrimental as he heads towards tougher opposition.

On that note, Nueraji’s level of opposition to this point has been largely unimpressive. He has good timing and is clearly a powerful fighter but still shows some signs of his meek resume and overall inexperience and meek resume. That said, he has the raw tools necessary to find some success in the UFC’s welterweight division. This weekend serves as a reasonable first test, as Kiefer Crosbie is 0-2 in the organization but desperate to break the trend.

Crosbie drew Kevin Jousset in his UFC debut and pulled 6’3” (191cm) Sam Patterson in the following contest. It’s fair to say both were working against Crosbie and the results went the predictable way. That isn’t to say Crosbie has nothing to offer, but both of his UFC appearances have shown a stark lack of grappling ability.

Crosbie is at his best when he’s allowed a boxing match but he has proven to struggle with lengthy opponents who can keep him at bay. Though Crosbie won’t have to deal with a determined grappling threat this weekend, there’s little to suggest he will mount much success against a tall and powerful foe in Nueraji.

This match-up opens the main card of UFC Fight Night 257 and looks like a showcase in the making for Taiyilake Nueraji. I expect the Chinese spark plug to get the crowd on their feet with a rousing finish that potentially knocks Crosbie out of the organization.

Bet: Nueraji Wins By KO/TKO or Submission @ $1.44