South Africa head into their first Rugby Championship game of the year as heavy favourites, as they welcome Australia to the fortress that is Ellis Park. It’s been a strange lead-up to TRC for the Springboks, with no big-name challengers coming to the Republic in July, leaving the team to settle for matches against the Barbarians, Italy (twice) and Georgia. All four of those games resulted in comfortable wins for the Boks, starting with a 47-point blowout of a much-hyped Baa-Baas team. The Italy Tests started with a 42-24 win before a 45-0 demolition job in the second showdown, before beating Georgia by the same margin the following week, in a 55-10 blowout in Mbombela. Rassie Erasmus has made several changes to that team for Sunday morning’s clash, with Ox Nche, Malcolm Marx, and Wilco Louw all coming into the front row. Siya Kolisi moves to the back of the scrum, seeing Marco van Staden start at openside, while Manie Libbok starts at first five-eighth and Andre Esterhuizen and Jesse Kriel form a new midfield pairing.
Australia capped off an exciting Lions series with a 22-12 victory in Sydney, but the win was in vain after dropping the first two games of the series. The first loss was an underwhelming one, falling 19-27 in a game that the visitors had more dominance in than the scoreline indicated, before a contentious ending to the second Test saw the Lions score a last-minute game-winning try. There were some standout performers across the series, including Fraser McReight, Len Ikitau and Max Jorgensen, while Joseph-Aukuso Sua’ali’i lived up to expectations with some thrilling touches. That same starting XV has been by Joe Schmidt, other than James O’Connor coming in for the concussed Tom Lynagh at first five-eighth. Nick Champion de Crespigny also joins the bench.
It’s a fascinating opener to TRC, with a Springboks team with a relatively insignificant form line hosting a battle-tested Wallabies team that outperformed expectations in the Lions series. The Springboks are undoubtedly the better, more talented team, but Australia will arrive in Johannesburg prepared. As 17.5-point underdogs, the Wallabies are a good bet.
Best
Australia +17.5 ($1.92)
Value
South Africa 1-12 ($3.40)
Argentina have been a mixed bag in 2025, starting with a history-making victory over the British & Irish Lions in a warm-up game. The 28-24 triumph in Dublin came as a significant upset, with Los Pumas entering the game as 16.5-point underdogs, but the Argentinians had the grit and the defence to record a famous win at Aviva Stadium. They have failed to reach those heights in their subsequent games, however, dropping both games against England before a breezy win over Uruguay. A second-string England team travelled to Argentina for a two-game series, but Los Pumas weren’t able to take advantage of the undermanned visitors, getting thumped 12-35 in the first clash before a 17-22 defeat the following week. A 52-17 demolition of Uruguay got Argentina back to winning ways, but we’ll need to see plenty more consistency from the Argentines if they are to cause any trouble in TRC.
New Zealand got through their three-Test series against France with a sweep, but it was far from a straightforward task. Les Bleus sent over a severely undermanned squad to Aotearoa, prompting fears of a heavily lopsided series, but it was anything but, especially in the first Test. The All Blacks clung on for a four-point win in Dunedin before running riot in Wellington with a 43-17 win to clinch the series. The third Test didn’t have a dead-rubber feeling to it, with the ABs needing a late try to record a 29-19 victory. Some strong performances from the Barrett brothers, Ardie Savea and Will Jordan proved that this All Blacks team can be the world’s best on their day, but it’s a heavily rotated team taking on Los Pumas this week, with eight personnel changes in the starting XV. Codie Taylor and Fletcher Newell rejoin the starting front row, Scott Barrett returns from injury, and Tupou Vaa’i replaces Samipeni Finau on the blindside. In the backs, Beauden Barrett returns to start at first five-eighth, while Jordie Barrett and Billy Proctor rejoin as the midfield pairing.
It’s a big but relatively inexperienced Argentina team and that spells trouble for Los Pumas. We’re just over a year on from their shock win in Wellington, but it’s hard to see them recording another win over the All Blacks on Sunday morning. While there was plenty of room for improvement for Scott Robertson’s men against France, it’s a dangerous and physical AB’s team named in Córdoba, and they’ll get the job done comfortably.
Best
New Zealand -8.5 ($1.90)
Value
New Zealand 11-20 ($3.60)