NRL Tips & Preview | Round 23

It is difficult to get a gauge on their respective wins in Round 20. The Storm managed to get a late winner against the Eels despite playing poorly while the Broncos thumped an injury-riddled Rabbitohs side. Trent Loiero returns for the Storm after being rested last week as does Asofa-Solomona who has served his suspension but the duo of Hughes and Faalogo remain sidelined with injury. Payne Haas was a late out for the Broncos last week but is back and will likely play big minutes with Xavier Willison out with a broken forearm.

Head To Head

The Storm have an incredible record in this matchup. They have won 24 of the last 26 meetings as the betting favourite and are seeking a 9th consecutive win at home to the Broncos. To say that the Storm have piled on the points is an understatement as they have scored 40+ points in 6 of their last 11 clashes against the Broncos. They have had at least one player score 2+ tries in 10 of the last 11 meetings with the duo of Hughes and Warbrick both crossing for hat-tricks in the most recent meetings. Katoa was also on the scoresheet in that match and has 3 tries in his last 2 appearances against the Broncos.

Stats That Matter

Home dominance is what the statistics tell us about the Storm at home. They have won 10 of their last 12 as a home favourite and have successfully covered the line in 67% of those games. The Broncos may have scored 60 points last week but have won fewer than 50% of away games in the last year (5-6). The Under is 7-0 in their last 7 away games in a stretch of games that they have averaged only 16.3ppg in – significantly lower than their season average of 27.7ppg. Moreover, the Storm have averaged 37.5ppg at AAMI Park this season with Xavier Coates having crossed for 9 tries in his 8 games at the ground this season.

Prediction

AAMI Park has been a fortress for the Storm, and they have been a different team at home this season. Their scoring average is significantly better at home while the Broncos is considerably lower on the road. The Storms’ record in this series is incredible and I am not buying into the Broncos win against a Bunnies side that was missing its six best players. Last week the Storm were ill-disciplined and there will not be a repeat of that here. Resilience is not a word we can associate with the Broncos at present, so it is a case of all aboard for the home side.

Tips

Best Bet: Storm -5.5 ($1.85)
Value: Xavier Coates 2+ Tries ($3.40)
Same Game Multi: Storm WIN, Coates Anytime Try, Katoa Anytime Try ($4.55)

With a 24-0 lead at half time against the Titans last week, the Panthers looked as though that would reach the half century mark. Instead, they let the Titans back into the game and needed some Nathan Cleary heroics to guide them to a win in golden point. They will be without Isaiah Yeo (shoulder) but do get some relief with Liam Martin to start and Sorensen to come into the side. The Knights are coming off the bye which has given gun centre Bradman Best the time required to recover with Dane Gagai to continue at fullback.

Head To Head

The Panthers had gone 10 meetings without defeat heading into their Round 12 clash earlier this season, but that streak came to an end following a Knights ambush. The Knights scored 24 unanswered points in the first half and defended their way to a 25-6 win. The Panthers were notably without all their Origin stars making it difficult to give the Knights credit for the victory. The Panthers have won 7 in a row as the away team in this matchup and have held the Knights to 20 or fewer in the last 7 clashes at this ground. The home side have struggled to put points on the board with an average of only 13.9ppg across those games. The Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings with an average of only 34.8 total match points across those matches.

Stats That Matter

A run of 8 consecutive wins has the Panthers on the brink of a top 4 finish but almost giving up a 24-0 lead suggests there is further room for improvement. They have covered the line in only 1 of their previous 6 when facing teams on a losing streak and only 3 of their last 10 as an away favourite. Under total match points continues to be a moneymaker in Knights matches having held on in 10 of their last 13 home games including their last 4. Despite giving up 26 points to the Titans last week the premiers have conceded an average of only 10.8ppg across their last 5. The Knights are the owners of the worst attack in the NRL having averaged 14.9ppg this season.

Prediction

If the Knights are to be competitive in this match it will need to be on the back of their defence as they have scored more than 20 points in only 1 of their last 8 games. Following a poor second half display against the Titans, discipline and a focus on defence will be priorities in the game plan of the visitors. Thomas Jenkins has been a big contributor for them in the second half of the season with 11 tries in his last 11 games and will again be one of out anytime try scorer plays.

Tips

Best Bet: Under 43.5 points ($1.90)
Value: Knights 10 Points or Less ($2.55)
Same Game Multi: Panthers WIN, Jenkins Anytime Try, Garner Anytime Try ($6.83)

The Raiders 9-game win streak came to an end in Wollongong, but they remain alone at the top on 36 points after the Bulldogs failed to beat the Tigers. Meanwhile, the Sea Eagles finals hopes were put in jeopardy following a home loss to the Roosters and another defeat here would make it extremely tough for them to make the eight. Ricky Stuart has named the same 17 players to redeem themselves while the big news out of the northern beaches is the return of Tom Trbojevic to fullback with Hopoate ruled out. 

Head To Head:

High scoring games has been the theme in this series with the Over hitting in each of the last 5 meetings. There has been an average of 56.4 total match points across those games with the Sea Eagles posting 40+ points in 3 of the last 4 clashes. The visitors have won 8 of the last 11 battles and have been successful at the line in 5 of the last 7 as an away underdog. The duo of Garrick and Tom Trbojevic have been exceptional in this matchup. Garrick has 8 tries in his last 5 against the Raiders including four tries in their most recent clash. Tommy Turbo has scored at least once in five consecutive games against the Raiders and has matched Garrick with 8 tries in those games.  

 Stats That Matter:

As the team sitting at the top of the ladder it is no surprise to see that the Raiders have won their last 5 home games. This is accompanied by a 75% success rate at home in the last year, but they have won only 50% of games following a loss in that period with a 3-3 line record in those matches. In contrast, the Sea Eagles are 9-4 both straight up and at the line in their last 13 following a loss. The visitors play their best football in this spot, but they will have to overcome the fact that they have lost their last 7 when facing the team sitting at the top of the ladder.  

Prediction:

There was an element of fool’s gold in the Raiders winning streak as a handful of teams (all in the bottom half) had tested them in the last month. They were able to pull clear of the Eels and Knights in the final 20 minutes but there was none of that in the loss to the Dragons last week. Of their last 8 wins, 5 have been by 6 points or less and with the Sea Eagles season virtually on the line here, I am expecting the visitors to produce their best effort. The Over has hit in the Raiders last 7 home games and a high scoring game will suit the visitors as their best attacking weapons are in the backline. They have had no answer for Tom Trbojevic in recent seasons so look for him to put on a show in the no.1 jersey. 

Best Bet: Sea Eagles +7.5 ($1.90)

Value: 61 points or more ($5.80)

Same Game Multi: Over 46.5 points, Garrick Anytime Try, Tom Trbojevic Anytime Try ($6.42)

There was talk about the Dragons getting the wooden spoon, but they put that to be by ending a 4-game losing streak with a win over the Raiders. Meanwhile, the Sharks made it four in a row with a comfortable win over the Cowboys and remain an outside chance of claiming a spot in the top four. In a rarity for the Dragons this season, Shane Flanagan has named the same 17 players with only one change for the Sharks with Toby Rudolph joining the bench in place of Colquhoun (suspended).  

Head To Head:

This fierce rivalry has been dominated by the Sharks in recent seasons. They have won the last 10 meetings which includes a 5-0 line record in the last 5. Moreover, they have won and covered the line in the last 4 as the away team which leaves the Dragons with a mountain to climb. The Over is 5-0 in the last 5 clashes hosted by the Dragons and containing the Sharks attack could be an issue as they have scored 30+ points in 4 of the last 5 meetings. Mulitalo has scored 2+ tries in 2 of his last 4 appearances against the Dragons while Trindall has 3 in his last 3 against the Red V.  

 Stats That Matter: 

The Dragons have struggled to put together a streak of wins, and it has proved costly for them. They have won only 2 of their last 8 following a win and have claimed the points in only 4 of their last 14 as the betting underdog. The Sharks have won 68% of games as the betting elect in the last year but have underperformed on the road in recent times having failed to cover the line in their last 4 away games. Mulitalo had a day out against the Cowboys with a double and will have an interesting battle against his opposing number as Sloan has 6 tries in his last 5 games for the Dragons.  

Prediction:

It has taken longer than expected but the Sharks are on a roll. Their attack is firing on all cylinders, and they remain one of the most dangerous teams when they are playing with confidence. The Dragons have fought hard in most of their games this season but lack the finishing polish in critical moments. With the Sharks eyeing off a spot in the top 4, I fancy them to run away with it in this one. The Overs is a great play, but it may be worth waiting as there is wet weather forecast which could see the total wound in.  

Best Bet: Sharks -6.5 ($1.90)

Value: 1st Sharks Try Scorer – Mulitalo ($4.10)

Same Game Multi: Over 46.5 points, Mulitalo Anytime Try, Sloan Anytime Try ($4.18)

Huge top 8 implications in this one after both teams managed to post crucial wins in Round 22. The Dolphins found a crucial winner right at the death against the Warriors, but it came at a price with Herbie Farnworth sustaining a hamstring injury that could see him out for the season. The Roosters were too strong for the Sea Eagles and coach Trent Robinson has handed the responsibility to the same 17 players.  

 Head To Head:

The Dolphins first ever game in the NRL was against the Roosters and they were able to score a 28-18 upset win. Since then it has been all Roosters with the tricolours winning the next three meetings on the back of 30+ points scored on each occasion. The points have flowed in this series with an average of 56.5 total match points across their four clashes. Naturally, there have been several players who have scored numerous tries. Tabuai-Fidow and Isaako have 4 tries each for the Dolphins in this matchup and it is worth keeping an eye on Nawaqanitawase as he had a double in the Roosters 36-26 win over the Dolphins earlier this season.   

Stats That Matter:

Inconsistency is the reason why the Roosters are currently sitting outside of the top 8. They have won only 1 of their last 5 following a win but it hasn’t prevented them from opening as favourites. It could be a factor as they have won their last 4 as an away favourite compared to only 3 of their last 9 as a road underdog. The Dolphins have won and covered the line in their last two games at home and have notably scored 40+ points in 3 of their last 4 at home. The Over has hit in 5 of the Dolphins last 6 games at Suncorp Stadium and this is accompanied by 50+ total match points in 3 of the last 5 games officiated by Gerard Sutton at this ground.  

Prediction:

The big question we need to determine is just how big a loss is Herbie Farnworth for the Dolphins??? He has been their best attacking weapon by a country mile this season and their attack was disjointed once he went off injured last week. That said, they have had a week to prepare for life without him, and they are playing at home where their attack has been close to unstoppable. The Over remains the best bet despite the absence of Farnworth and the same applies for the Dolphins posting an outright win.  

Best Bet: Over 48.5 points ($1.90)

Value: To Have 3+ Tries Combined (Duos) – Tabuai Fidow/Isaako ($5.75)

Same Game Multi: Tabuai-Fidow Anytime Try, Isaako Anytime Try, Nawaqanitawase Anytime Try ($6.45)

Toughness and relentless commitment have been features of the Bulldogs’ game this season, but they were nowhere to be seen in the first half against the Tigers. They failed to capitalise on the Raiders loss to the Dragons but there has been no panic from Cameron Ciralo who has named the same 17. That includes Lachlan Galvin who picked up a hand injury, but he is adamant that he will play through it. The Warriors lost a nail-biter against the Dolphins and have now lost 4 of their last 6 – placing them in danger of dropping out of the top 4. Harris-Tevita is back for the visitors, and they could get a significant late inclusion with Fisher-Harris named on the extended bench.

Head To Head:

The Bulldogs completed the season double against the Warriors last year which included an enthralling 13-12 golden point victory in the corresponding fixture. That ended what was a Warriors 6-game win streak in a series that has produced several noticeable trends. The home team has won 8 of the last 11 meetings and points have been difficult to come by with the Under holding on in 5 of the last 7 encounters. There has been an average of 38.7 total match points across those games with no more than 36 total points in the five games where the Under has held.

Stats That Matter:

Only one of them can bounce back and despite both teams sitting in the top 4, neither has been super-impressive in this spot. The Bulldogs have a 4-3 record in their last 7 following a loss and have covered the line successfully in only two of those games. The Warriors are 5-5 in the last year when coming off a defeat but have covered in 70% of those games. The Under is 3-0 in the Warriors last 3 leading into this one with no more than 40 total match points scored in any of those games. With the Under going 7-1 in the Bulldogs last 8, there is a clear standout bet.

Prediction:

Not only is the Under in this match a great bet, but it is also the best bet of the round. After a terrible showing against the Tigers there will be a huge focus on defence for the Bulldogs. That spells trouble for the Warriors as their attack has struggled – especially with the likes of Metcalf and Egan watching from the sidelines. They will rely on their defence to keep them in the contest and could be aided by wet weather which the Bulldogs have had difficulties coping with so far this season.

Best Bet: Under 42.5 points ($1.90)

Value: 21-30 Total Match Points ($6.25)

Same Game Multi: Tribet 1-12 – Either Team by Under 12.5, Under 50.5 points, Rinakama Anytime Try ($4.89)

The Titans looked down and out when they trailed the Panthers 24-0 at half time but scored 26 unanswered points to take the lead. A Cleary 45m field goal sent the game to extra time with the Titans suffering a heart-breaking loss. Phillip Sami scored a double but is out due to concussion and will be replaced by Khan-Pereira. Injuries continue to hurt the Rabbitohs who suffered a very heavy 60-14 loss against the Broncos. There is some light at the end of the tunnel as they try to avoid the wooden spoon with Humphreys, Mamouzenlos and Brandon Smith all named to return. It doesn’t end there as Latrell Mithchell has been named on the extended bench.

Head To Head:

The Rabbitohs are desperate to end a 9-game losing streak and they will have history on their side as they have won their last 9 matches against the Titans. That includes a 6-0 line record in the last 6 with their attack being virtually unstoppable. The Over has hit in each of the last 5 meetings with the Bunnies scoring 28+ points in 9 of the last 10 clashes. Cbus Super Stadium has been somewhat of a home away from home for the Rabbitohs as they have averaged 39.6ppg in their last 5 games against the Titans at this ground. Alex Johnston has 8 tries in his last 5 games against the Titans includes two hat-tricks in his last three!

Stats That Matter:

One of the most profitable plays this season has been the Unders in matches involving the Rabbitohs but that trend will shift here. The Over is 3-0 in their last 3 interstate matches and aside from the Cowboys, these are the two worst defensive sides in the competition this season. The Titans have won only 2 of their last 10 home games and have failed to cover the line in the two games that they have started favourites in. Despite losing 5 of their last 6, the Titans have scored 20+ points in all but one of those games – largely on the back of attacking brilliance from the duo of Jayden Campbell and AJ Brimson.

Prediction:

Regardless of the weather we will be backing the Overs with confidence in this one. The market suggests that Latrell Mitchell will play and that will give the Rabbitohs attack a huge boost. It will also see Alex Johnston return to his most dangerous best and let’s not forget about Khan-Pereira who is a try scoring machine. There may be several games to go but with a bye to come in Round 26, the Rabbitohs can avoid the spoon with a win here. Latrell in will result in a Rabbitohs win.

Best Bet: Over 52.5 points ($1.90)

Value: To Combine for 4+ Tries (Duos) – Alex Johnton/Khan-Pereira ($6.00)

Same Game Multi: Rabbitohs +7.5, Johnston Anytime Try, Khan-Pereira Anytime Try ($3.93)

Both teams were coming off wins in Round 21 but failed to build on those results in Round 22. The Eels gave it their best in a 16-10 loss to the Storm and were the better side for a large portion of that game. It was a case of the same old story for the Cowboys whose defence was non-existent in a 32-12 defeat at Sharks Stadium. Samrani comes in for Russell (broken hand) and Tuilagi joins the bench for the home side while the Cowboys get a long list of players back including Taumalolo, Clifford, Vailea and Mikaele.

Head To Head:

They met twice last season with each side winning at home. That means that the home team has won 8 of the last 10 meetings. The Eels have played their part in that record having won 5 of the last 7 as a home favourite in this series. The Under has held on in 8 of the last 12 battles hosted by the Eels but low scoring games have not stopped Scott Drinkwater as he has scored a try in 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Stats That Matter:

The return of Mitchell Moses has brought about elements of control and direction to the Eels game. The Under has held on in 5 of their last 6 games played at CommBank Stadium but if there is a game where their attack will shine it will be against the Cowboys. The Queenslanders have conceded more points than any other team in the competition this season including 32 or more in each of their last 3. Of the 101 tries they have conceded, 55 of those (54%) have been down the right third. That is great news for Eels left winger Addo-Carr who has scored in back-to-back games.

Prediction:

For only the third time in the last year the Eels have been installed as favourites. They have earned the right as they have played some outstanding footy over the last fortnight. Had they valued the ball more in the attacking half last week they probably would have beaten the Storm. They now host the worst defensive side in the competition and that will allow the conductor (Mitchell Moses) to pick them apart. As they showed us last week, the Cowboys cannot be trusted on the road. Also like Addo-Carr to celebrate Indigenous round in style with at least one try. Add youngster Charlie Guymer to the try scorers list as the edge backrower has 3 tries in his last 5 games.

Best Bet: Eels -4.5 ($1.90)

Value: 1st Try Scorer – Josh Addo-Carr ($7.25)

Same Game Multi: Eels WIN, Ado-Carr Anytime Try, Guymer Anytime Try ($8.17)