Evan Psarras previews Round 22 of the 2025 NRL Premiership.
Mitchell Moses engineered an upset win over the Broncos last week with Zac Lomax also prominent in the victory. The same 17 have been assigned the task of causing another upset but the Storm showed just how resilient they are. Despite Jahrome Hughes leaving the field with a shoulder injury, Harry Grant single-handedly carried them to victory over the Roosters. The duo of Papenhuyzen and Munster return with Wishart to partner the Maroons captain in the halves.
Head To Head
The Storm crushed the Eels 56-18 earlier this season to extend their win streak in this series to five games. Papenhuyzen and Coates had two tries each in the win, but the Eels have had some success in this matchup having won 4 in a row themselves prior to losing the last five. The Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings hosted by the Eels with an average of 29.3ppg across those matches. The Eels will have to plan for Harry Grant as the Storm no.9 has scored a try in six consecutive appearances against the Eels.
Stats That Matter
They may have extended their incredible record following a loss last week, but the Storm are not as strong in this spot. They have won their last 5 away games but have covered the line in only 4 of their last 11 games as an away favourite. The Eels are 2-6 in their last 8 on the back of a win but have exceeded expectations having won 4 of their last 9 as a home underdog. The Underdog has covered the line in the last four night matches involving the Eels at this ground which suggests the Eels will be competitive. Lomax has scored at least once in his last four games for the Eels with Coates the top selection for the visitors as the Eels have consistently conceded tries to the opposing left winger.
Prediction
As expected, the kicking game of Mitchell Moses completely transformed the Eels. They were able to get out of their own end, build pressure and create scoring opportunities on the back of his boot. Expecting a similar game plan against the Storm which will make this a lower scoring game than expected. The absence of Hughes will have an impact on the Storm’s attack, and they will be made to work hard coming out of their own end. The Under is a great bet and don’t rule out an upset win for the Eels.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 47.5 points ($1.90)
Value: Eels WIN ($3.70)
Same Game Multi: Eels +10.5, Lomax Anytime Try, Coates Anytime Try ($4.99)
The Warriors started as overwhelming favourites against the Titans last week and despite taking an early 10-0 lead, they went down 24-16. They now host the Dolphins who are fresh off the bye and will be without three key players – Egan (concussion), Fisher-Harris (calf) and Harris-Tavita (calf). In contrast, several key players will return for the visitors including Nikorima, Nicholls and Kaufusi.
Head To Head
Leading into their Round 11 clash earlier this season the home team was 4-0 in this series. The Warriors ended that streak with a 16-12 win at Suncorp Stadium but will field a very different side to that one with Barnett, Egan, Fisher-Harris, Metcalf and Harris-Tavita all unavailable. The Warriors have won and covered the line in their previous two home games against the Dolphins but will start as outsiders. Farnworth has 4 tries in his last 3 against the Warriors while veteran Kurt Capewell has a try in each of the last two clashes in this series.
Stats That Matter
This is a very favourable spot for the Dolphins as they have won 4 of their previous 5 games following a bye. They are 5-1 in their last 6 games as the betting elect and have successfully covered the line in 67% of those games. The Dolphins have scored 40+ points in 5 of their last 7 games and play their best footy under lights with the Over hitting in 5 of their last 6 night matches. Farnworth has a try in his last 6 away games and don’t forget Tabuai-Fidow who has at least one try in his last five appearances and leads the NRL in tries scored this season with 15.
Prediction
Adam Pompey delivered the first try at $14 for us last week but we will be shifting our attention to the visitors for this one. The Dolphins attack has been exceptional in the last two months, and they lead the NRL in long range tries. Tabuai-Fidow’s support play has been incredible and the speed of Marshall-King out of dummy half will create a multitude of opportunities for the electric fullback. The duo of Egan and Fisher-Harris play a critical role in the Warriors defensive scheme and there must be a level of concern without them. If they are forced to chase points the Dolphins could run up a big number on them.
Tips
Best Bet: Dolphins -3.5 ($1.90)
Value: Dolphins 41 Points or More ($8.75)
Same Game Multi: Farnworth Anytime Try, Tabuai-Fidow Anytime Try, Capewell Anytime Try ($14.42)
The Broncos were on track for a top 4 finish, but they were back to their old tricks last week in a home loss to the Eels. A battle with a wounded Rabbitohs side should be a walk in the park but with both coaches taking on their former clubs, this one should get heated. Arthurs and Karapani have been dropped with Maguire giving the duo of Cobbo and Mariner a chance to step up. There will be no Wighton (suspended) or Tatola (shoulder) but the return of Humphreys may provide them with some stability in the halves.
Head To Head
You wouldn’t know it from their current positions on the ladder, but the Rabbitohs have won the last two meetings including a 22-14 victory in their most recent meeting (Round 10 this season). They have split the last 6 clashes at Suncorp Stadium and the Rabbitohs have shown that they can spring an upset with a 33% win rate across the last 15 encounters as the underdog in this series. The return of Mariner on the wing makes sense as he has scored 5 tries in his last 3 appearances against the Rabbitohs.
Stats That Matter
A run of 8 straight losses looks bad on paper for the Rabbitohs, but half of those losses have been by a margin of 6 or less as last week’s 14-12 loss against the Sharks was another display of determination and grit. The Broncos have a 33% strike rate at the line in the last year and have had serious troubles covering big starts. The Under is 4-0 in the Broncos last 4 games, 3-0 in the last 3 for the visitors and has held on in 10 of the Rabbitohs last 12 away games. The Broncos have conceded a try to the opposing left centre in each of their last three games which suggests that Tallis Duncan is good value to get over the line.
Prediction
On paper the Broncos should win this one in a canter but that has been their problem for the last year. They have consistently been overvalued by the market and failed to live up to the hype. In comparison, the Rabbitohs have been competitive in games that they have had no reason to be, and the Wayne Bennett factor cannot be ignored here. He knows the Broncos inside-out and having Peter Gough assigned as the referee could help the visitors. He was in charge when the two sides last met in a match where the Rabbitohs were allowed to slow down the ruck speed. A repeat of that will ensure a low scoring game.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 49.5 points ($1.90)
Value: Tallis Duncan Anytime Try ($4.50)
Same Game Multi: Rabbitohs plus, Mariner Anytime Try, 1st Half Under 24.5 points ($5.91)
The four-time defending premiers were written off by many midway through the season but they have since reeled off 7 consecutive wins and are knocking on the door of a spot in the top 4. Liam Martin is back in the starting side after making his return off the bench meaning the Panthers are at full strength. A Des Hasler spray following a loss to the Tigers worked wonders as the Titans came away with the two points from a trip to New Zealand. They climbed off the bottom of the ladder as a result, but their points differential could take a hit in this one.
Head To Head
As expected, it has been a case of Panthers dominance in this series for several seasons. They have won the last 6 meetings including the last four played in Queensland. The Under has held on in 4 of those 6 battles with the Panthers consistently able to contain the Titans attack. The Titans have averaged 9.7ppg across those games which includes being held to a single digit total on multiple occasions. Dylan Edwards has 3 tries in his last 2 appearances against the Titans and has been on fire with 3 tries and 2 try assists in his last two games leading into this contest.
Stats That Matter
They may have caused an upset last week, but this is historically a bad spot for the Titans. They are 2-4 both straight up and at the line in their last 6 following a win and this is accompanied by a terrible 2-7 line record in their last 9 as a home underdog. Meanwhile, the Panthers stellar defence has helped them cover the line in their last 5 games and has seen an average of only 36.0 total match points across those fixtures. The Under is 3-0 in the Titans last 3 and has held on in 64% of Titans home games in the last year.
Prediction
The Panthers are firing on all cylinders – especially in defence. They have held their last 4 opponents to 10 or fewer points and have won their last three by a margin of 13+ points. The minus/under double has saluted in their last three and is on the cards again here. They are switched on defensively and are back into their groove – suffocating their opponents with pin-point kicking supported by relentless line speed. The Titans do not have the resilience required to keep the premiers at bay.
Tips
Best Bet: Panthers -13.5 ($1.90)
Value: 31-40 Total Match Points ($4.20)
Same Game Multi: Panthers WIN, Under 47.5 points, Edwards Anytime Try, McLean Anytime Try ($12.86)
The Raiders have been tested multiple times in the last month, but they continue to win. They outscored the Knights 26-0 in the second half to extend their win streak to 9 games. In contrast, the Dragons cannot find a way to win and lost a 4th consecutive game by a margin of 7 or less. Michael Molo replaces Su’A (knee) in the only change to the starting side. Despite scoring a 5th try in his last 7 appearances (many of which have been off the bench), Sasagi reverts to the interchange with Seb Kris back in the starting left centre role.
Head To Head
This is the second meeting between them in less than a month with the Raiders winning 28-24 in Round 18. They were led by a Kaeo Weeks hat-trick while Sloan had a double for the visitors. It was the Raiders 5th consecutive win in this series and the 4th time in the last 5 battles that both teams scored 20+ points. Hudson Young is another one to look out for as he has scored at least once in 4 of his last 5 appearances against the Dragons. There have been 50+ total match points in each of the last three clashes with the Raiders taking the points on offer in 6 of their last 9 trips to Wollongong.
Stats That Matter
In terms of consistency, the Raiders have been the superior side in the competition. They have won their last 7 away games and are a perfect 10-0 in their last 10 games as the betting favourite. Moreover, they have covered the line in 74% of games following a win in the last year and will not be intimidated by the Dragons. It is fair to assume that the Dragons will be competitive as 7 of their last 8 defeats have come by a 1-12 margin. The Green Machine have won their last 5 away games by a combined total of only 18 points which is why the bookies are keeping the Dragons safe.
Prediction
The Dragons continue to find a way to lose. An inferior kicking game and poor decision-making late in matches has proved costly this season. Nevertheless, they have been super-competitive in most matches. Sloan is on fire with 6 tries in his last 4 appearances and anything close to even money for him to extend his streak is a play. The Over has hit in 7 of the Dragons last 8 matches played outside of Sydney and I can see them matching motors with the Raiders in this one. Think they have 20+ points in them but the concern is their defence.
Tips
Best Bet: Over 46.5 points ($1.90)
Value: Dragons 21-30 Total Match Points ($3.20)
Same Game Multi: Dragons +12.5, Sloan Anytime Try, Young Anytime Try ($5.70)
This one has huge finals implications with 9th hosting 10th and both teams coming off a loss. The Eagles went toe-to-toe with the Bulldogs in the first half but conceded 30 unanswered points in the final 25 minutes of a 42-4 loss. The Roosters were given a significant advantage when Dally M winner Jahrome Hughes went off injured, but they failed to capitalise going down 34-30. Olakau-atu’s return was short-lived and he is out again (shoulder) while the Roosters welcome back the duo of Savala and Billy Smith.
Head To Head
They split the two regular season meetings last year but when they met in Week 2 of the finals, it was the Roosters who were dominant 40-16 winners. There has been an element of home ground advantage in this matchup with the home team winning 8 of the last 9 meetings. The Sea Eagles have won 7 of their last 8 against the Roosters when installed as a home favourite but the most critical statistics relate to the total. The Under is 4-0 in the last 4 clashes hosted by the Eagles with an average of 36.75 total points across those games. James Tedesco has 5 tries in his last 5 appearances against the Sea Eagles with 2+ tries against them on three occasions in his career.
Stats That Matter
The Roosters have now lost 3 of their last 4 with defensive lapses being a major issue. They have allowed 29.75ppg during that stretch and improvement on the road is unlikely as they have lost 6 of their last 8 games as an away outsider. The Sea Eagles have won and covered the line in their last 3 home games and have a 70% win rate as a home favourite in the last year. In addition to this, they are 9-3 both straight up and at the line in their last 12 games following a loss. The Under us 5-0 in their last 5 home games and outside of the final 20 minutes against the Bulldogs, they have been defending well in the last month.
Prediction
Wet weather is forecast for the entire week in Sydney which is great news for the Unders and followers should be backing it nice and early as there is no way it stays at this number. The Roosters defence has been paper-thin through the middle and that is a huge concern if this one turns into a mud bath as the ball will rarely go wide. They conceded three tries to prop forwards last week and another to hooker Harry Grant. The Eagles have been far more disciplined in defence and have the advantage of Cherry-Evans kicking game in what will be testing conditions.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 47.5 points ($1.90)
Value: 21-30 Total Match Points ($9.25)
Same Game Multi: Sea Eagles WIN, Under 55.5 points, Ben Trbojevic Anytime Try ($9.61)
A run of three consecutive wins has the Bulldogs back on track and the 42-4 win over the Sea Eagles was one of their best of the season. Meanwhile, the Tigers failed to score a single try in a 36-2 loss at the hands of the Panthers but there is some good news for the home side. Jahream Bula returns at fullback with Samuela Fainu also making his return. The Bulldogs win came at a price last week with Connor Tracey to spend a month on the sidelines (abdomen) with Kiraz names to cover him in the one jersey.
Head To Head
The last three meetings have all been won by the Bulldogs, but the Tigers did manage to win 4 of the 5 clashes prior to that. The Tigers have won 3 of the last 7 meetings as a home underdog which includes covering the line in 3 of the last 4 games in that scenario. There have been more than 40 total match points in only 2 of the last 7 clashes hosted by the Tigers which suggest points could be harder to come by than expected.
Stats That Matter
The Tigers defeat last week means they are 0-3 in their last 3 after a win but we will likely see improvement from them as they have covered the line in 5 of their last 6 as a home underdog. The Bulldogs have won 9 of their last 11 away games but have failed to cover the line in their last 3 as an away favourite. The Under is 3-0 in the Bulldogs last 3 away games and 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 as the home side. The venue should also help the Tigers as the Bulldogs are 0-5 at the line in their last 5 games played at CommBank Stadium. It could be a happy return to first grade for Jethro Rinakama as the Tigers have conceded at least one try to the opposite right winger in each of their last 8 games.
Prediction
Expecting the Tigers to improve significantly on last week with Bula to make an immediate impact in his return. The Bulldogs grinding style of footy is supposed to be ideal for wet weather but two of their worst performances this season came in the wet against the Broncos and Dolphins. The Under has held on in 71% of Tigers games following a loss in the last year and a low scoring game would increase their chances of covering the start.
Tips
Best Bet: Tigers +11.5 ($1.90)
Value: Bulldogs 11-20 Points ($3.50)
Same Game Multi: Under 43.5 points, Rinakama Anytime Try, Tribet 1-12 Either Team by Less Than 12.5 ($7.45)
It wasn’t pretty but the Sharks extended their win streak to three games with a 14-12 victory over the Rabbitohs. The Cowboys defence was non-existent against the Dragons, but they managed to score 38 points to end a three-game skid. Two big additions for the Sharks with Nikora and Talakai named to return while for the Cowboys, Clifford is back with Duffy making way.
Head To Head
The Sharks have dominated this series with wins in 13 of the last 15 meetings. They have won and covered the line in their last 3 as the home team but it is the extended success of their sack in this matchup which is noteworthy. They have scored 22+ points in 12 consecutive games against the Cowboys with an average of 32.2ppg across those matches. Mulitalo has been close to unstoppable with at least one try and 8 in total in his last 6 games against the Cowboys.
Stats That Matter
Causing upsets has not been part of the Cowboys arsenal with only 2 wins in their last 13 as the betting underdog. They have lost 7 in a row when facing teams in the top 8 and have lost both halves in their last 3 as an away underdog. The Sharks have won 9 of their last 12 at home and have successfully covered the line in 67% of those games. The Cowboys have allowed almost 30ppg this season but there could be some value in Zac Laybutt as he has scored the opening try three times in their last five games.
Prediction
It is difficult to put any faith in a Cowboys side that has given up 30+ points in 4 of its last 5 away games. The Sharks were terrible in the win over the Rabbitohs, but they have at least shown a level of consistency with their defence. This is the one game in Sydney this weekend that I am pushing the weather forecast to the side for. The Cowboys concede tries in bunches and as we have seen in a large portion of their games this season, games get blown wide open when they are trailing.
Tips
Best Bet: Over 48.5 points ($1.90)
Value: Sharks 41 Points or More ($5.40)
Same Game Multi: Sharks WIN, Mulitalo Anytime Try, Trindall Anytime Try ($6.52)