There is a case to be made that North Harbour are the wooden spoon favourites as we near the halfway point of the regular season. It’s been a miserable opening four rounds, having lost all four games by double-digit margins and by an average of 18 points, and last week’s loss was their worst to-date. Few were expecting a tight contest in Albany and Tasman wasted no time in getting the scoring started, dotting down inside the opening two minutes. That set the tone for a disastrous opening quarter for the hosts, falling behind 0-24, before taking a 0-31 deficit into the break. Siaosi Nginingini scored for Harbour shortly into the second half and Tom Barham and Penaia Cakobau recorded a pair of consolation tries late in the piece, but this was another bad showing from Harbour. While they had their fair share of ball, NH’s carries were often toothless and they showed little attacking ambition.
Bay of Plenty have suffered back-to-back losses and while Round 3’s defeat to Canterbury wouldn’t have been too much of a let down, last week’s 25-30 home loss to Southland certainly was. Entering the contest as 21.5-point favourites, BOP struggled to crack the Stags’ defence in the first half despite having the lion’s share of possession and chances, with Josh Bartlett’s try and Kaleb Trask’s conversion being the team’s only points in their 7-6 lead. The scoring chances opened up in the second 40 as both teams made inroads on attack, leading to a rollercoaster half, but every time the Steamers struck, Southland hit back harder, resulting in a shock loss for the hosts. Trask was the standout for BOP and Veveni Lasaqa had another dynamic showing, but the Steamers struggled to get on the front foot once Southland tidied up their kicking game, which proved to be the hosts’ undoing.
The Steamers will almost certainly have more attacking success against Harbour on Friday, especially with Leroy Carter and Emoni Narawa back in the fold, and that will make for a high-scoring clash on the North Shore. The over is 9-2 in Harbour’s last 11 home games and it’s the play for the Round 5 opener.
Best
Over 57.5 ($1.90)
Value
1st, 2nd OR 3rd Try Scorer — Emoni Narawa ($3.25)
Canterbury are the only undefeated team left in the NPC following another big road win, this time over Hawke’s Bay. The 26-7 triumph was the result of another clinical performance from Marty Bourke’s side, as they shut the dangerous hosts out of the game with another defensive masterclass. Conceding an average of just 11 points per game through the opening four rounds, it’s been an elite start to the season for Canterbury on that side of the ball and it was another huge shift from Tom Christie that set the tone. The loosie had 17 tackles, maintaining his spot on top of the competition’s tackles chart, while Sam Darry had his best game of the season with a busy all-round affair. In all it was a dominant game by almost the entire forward pack, and the backs got involved with some classy touches to record a bonus-point win.
Manawatū improved to 2-2 with a big 38-28 victory over Wellington last Sunday. It was a breathtaking performance from the Turbos, whose attack was firing on all cylinders, as they never trailed against their much-fancied big brothers from the capital. TK Howden opened the scoring before James Tofa scored the first of his three tries for a 14-0 lead. The Turbos kept in control for most of the rest of the game, with Taniela Filimone also making the most of his opportunities on the back of an excellent outing from Drew Wild. Wellington threatened a comeback with the final two tries of the game, but it was never really a contest, with the visitors picking up a shock win.
Everything went right for the Turbos in this game but as they hit the road for a game against the table-toppers, they will be brought back down to Earth. Canterbury’s defence has been on another level this season and a mediocre Manawatū attack won’t trouble them. The Turbos are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.
Best
Canterbury -16.5 ($1.90)
Value
Canterbury 21-30 ($4.00)
Counties Manukau were again determined last week but couldn’t find enough for a win, falling to Otago 19-33. Now with a 0-4 record, it’s been a tough start to the season for the Steelers and they were always a step or two behind in Dunedin. After conceding the opening try, CM hit straight back through Simon-Peter Toleafoa to take a 7-5 lead. The Razorbacks, however, scored four of the next five tries to blow the game wide open and take a 12-33 lead midway through the second half, and the Steelers weren’t able to recover from there. The visitors weren’t without their chances, especially in the first 40 minutes, during which they put Otago under a lot of pressure, but they often failed to really trouble the hosts’ defence — which is becoming somewhat of a theme of their season — meaning a win never looked likely.
Taranaki fell to their first loss of the season last week and, with that, relinquished the Ranfurly Shield to Waikato. It was a classic Shield showdown, with the pressure of the game being palpable, and it was the visitors who held their nerve late on, scoring 10 points in the final 10 minutes to upset the Bulls. Taranaki had to deal with a yellow card to Jesse Parete inside the opening 10 minutes, which eventually resulted in a 0-3 deficit, before Josh Setu scored the only try of the opening half to send the Bulls into the sheds up 5-3. The game came to life in the second 40 and it was the hosts who looked to be in control as Logan Crowley finished off a Vereniki Tikoisolomone break, before Obey Samate was the first to the ball in scoring his try, giving the Naki a 19-6 cushion. However, the Mooloos rolled up their sleeves there, outscoring the hosts 3-17 in the final 30 minutes to steal the win and hand Taranaki a heartbreaking defeat.
Counties will be relieved to be returning home after having three of their four games on the road to start the season, and I expect the Steelers to make this game a true contest. Taranaki are resting Crowley and Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens and that will only help in making this game a real arm wrestle. CM are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games and will surprise the Bulls.
Best
Counties Manukau +13.5 ($1.90)
Value
Taranaki 1-12 ($3.20)
Northland pulled off a scintillating 43-24 win over Auckland last week to improve to 2-2 and upset their rivals from down the line. It was a convincing display from the Taniwha, scoring the first four tries of the game to race out to a 26-0 lead in the first half. Reesjan Pasitoa was the scorer of two of those tries, providing great supporting play, to help Northland cruise into the break. Auckland scored the next three tries, however, bringing the visitors’ lead down to just seven points, but Rivez Reihana scored the next 10 points to give the Taniwha the buffer that they needed to record a huge win.
Hawke’s Bay had their first taste of defeat last season, falling to Canterbury 7-26 in a lacklustre display. With the Magpies’ attack having looked so strong through the opening three rounds, a high-level clash was expected at McLean Park but, instead, the hosts’ scoring was kept to a minimum by the suffocating Canterbury defence. Going scoreless in the first half, it was a 40 minutes of few opportunities and a lack of incision for Hawke’s Bay and while things slightly improved in the second half, the visitors always looked in control. Miracle Fai’ilagi broke HB’s deadlock with a try off a lineout maul midway through the second half, bringing the scores to 7-12, but that was as close as the Magpies would get, seeing their record slip to 3-1.
I expect to see a return to form from this Hawke’s Bay attack and, with that, a big total to be posted on Saturday afternoon. Folau Fakatava comes back into the starting team to give their attack a boost and with this Taniwha attack having steadily improved as the season’s gone on, they’ll help contribute to the over hitting.
Best
Over 57.5 ($1.87)
Value
Hawke’s Bay 1-12 ($2.80)
Tasman continued their run of big wins with a 43-19 thrashing of North Harbour last week to make it three double-digit wins on the trot. Those three victories have come by an average margin of 23 points and this triumph over Harbour looked like it was going to be a blowout from the opening moments, as Tayne Hemopo powered his way over inside the first two minutes. Macca Springer then scored the first of his four tries just minutes later, with his third try of the day coming in the 25th minute to increase Tasman’s lead to 31-0. The score remained there until Harbour scored their first try early in the second half, but the game was essentially over by then as the Mako waltzed their way to another bonus point win.
Otago improved to 3-1 with a 33-19 victory over Counties Manukau, continuing what’s been a rock-solid start to their season. Sam Gilbert charged his way over the line to open the scoring and while Counties hit back almost immediately, the hosts steadied themselves for the back-end of the first half, with close-range tries from Jona Nareki and Will Tucker helping the Razorbacks to a 19-12 halftime lead. It was another set of back-to-back tries early in the second half that put the game well and truly out of Counties’ reach, as Dylan Pledger finished off a tidy move and Cameron Millar then scored off a counterattack to give the hosts an unassailable 19-point lead.
Otago find themselves mysteriously undervalued by the market again heading into this Round 5 clash. While the Mako have been boosted by the return of Timoci Tavatavanawai, this Razorbacks team has shown plenty of grit already this season and will be a tough task for Tasman, even in Nelson. Otago are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
Best
Otago +14.5 ($1.90)
Value
Tasman 1-12 ($3.20)
Two of the NPC’s traditional heavy-hitters go head-to-head on Sunday, but it’s been a far-from-ideal start to the season for both teams. Wellington are 1-3 after Sunday’s shock 28-38 defeat to Manawatū, in a game where they were comprehensively outplayed by the hosts, despite the Lions starting as 10.5-point favourites. Wellington never led in the contest, as the Turbos came out firing to score the first two tries of the game and although the visitors eventually recorded four tries for a bonus point, it came in a losing effort as their defence struggled to contain Manawatū’s backs. Young flyer Stanley Solomon had some electric touches from the back but the Lions were made to pay for their meagre 79% tackle completion rate and their lack of ball security.
Auckland’s season continues to be in freefall, with a 24-43 loss to Northland last week extending their misery. Still without a win and with their finals hopes fading, the 2018 champions have been awful defensively and their attack has been no better, which was again shown in the loss to the Taniwha. Scoring the game’s first four tries, Northland raced out to a 26-0 lead before Xavier Tito-Harris — Auckland’s best player this season — broke the hosts’ deadlock with a try in the final play of the first half. Josh Beehre scored moments into the second half before Tito-Harris scored his second to bring Auckland within seven points, but that would be as close as they would get, with the visitors running in another two tries to make the final score a blowout.
Auckland will be desperate for their first win of the season in Wellington but I have little confidence in them getting the job done. While this Lions team has been shaky in their own right this season, they are the better, classier outfit and that will show in the final score. Auckland are just 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games and won’t come all that close in the capital.
Best
Wellington -9.5 ($1.90)
Value
Wellington 11-20 ($3.50)
Waikato became the new holders of the Ranfurly Shield last week, beating Taranaki in a 23-22 thriller. It was Lima Sopoaga who came up clutch again for the Mooloos, this time nailing a penalty goal to give his team a one-point win and steal the Shield away from the Bulls. Trailing by nine points with just 10 minutes to play, the game was slipping away from the visitors’ reach, but Xavier Roe split the Taranaki defence in two to score under the sticks, making it a two-point deficit, before a couple of huge plays from Oli Mathis put Waikato on the front foot, laying the foundations for Sopoaga’s winner. Mitchell Jacobson was huge up front for the Mooloos and Bailyn Sullivan was constantly dangerous at centre, helping deliver a massive win for Waikato.
Southland won their second game on the bounce and it came in one of the biggest upsets of the season so far, toppling Bay of Plenty 30-25. The Stags headed to Rotorua as 21.5-point underdogs but made it clear that they were there to play, staunchly holding out the Steamers’ repeated attacks in the first half, with the hosts scoring just one try in the first half for a 6-7 lead. Semisi Tupou Ta’eiloa broke through and found Nic Shearer in support to see the Stags score their first try, setting up a see-sawing second half. BOP jumped back in front with two quick tries, but Nic Souchon scored on the back of a lineout drive to get Southland back on top. The clincher came when Michael Manson burst through a hole to give the visitors an eight-point lead, propelling them to a huge win over a much-fancied BOP team. Mika Muliaina was impressive throughout and the metre-eaters of Tupou Ta’eiloa and Faletoi Peni ensured Southland got on the front foot in the second half.
There is little faith in the market that the Stags can make it three on the trot, being 14.5-point underdogs in this contest, but I expect them to again make this game a tight tussle. Their victory in Rotorua showed that they are not the pushovers of years gone by and with the Shield on the line on Sunday, this game will be tighter than expected. The Stags are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.
Best
Southland +14.5 ($1.90)
Value
Waikato 1-12 ($3.20)