Southland were staunch in their showing in Whangārei last week but ultimately fell to Northland 17-22 in a thriller. It was very much a defensive contest, especially in the opening half where Scott Gregory’s try off a charge down was the only score, as the Stags took a 7-0 lead into the break. Northland levelled the scores shortly into the second half, but Sean Withy hit back 10 minutes later to put Southland in front and put them in good position to pick up their first win of the season. However, the hosts went on to score 15 points in as many minutes to storm into the lead and it was too much for Southland to bounce back from, dropping them to a 0-2 record. It was the Stags’ lineout maul defence that proved to be their undoing, with all of Northland’s three tries coming on the back of mauls, but their defence elsewhere was generally sound for the second week on the bounce, led by Withy, Mitch Dunshea and the hard-working Semisi Tupou Ta’eiloa.
Manawatū came crashing back down to Earth following their Round 1 win, losing to Tasman 17-49. It was a very tough second-up fixture for the Turbos, hitting the road to take on a loaded Mako side, and it was clear from the outset just how long of an afternoon it was going to be for the visitors, as Tasman scored in the opening 10 minutes. By the 30-minute mark, the deficit was 28 points and despite consecutive tries to start the second half, Manawatū were never really in the hunt. They struggled to penetrate the Tasman defence and coughed up plenty of ball, while on the other side of the ball, the Turbos’ defence was lacklustre. Brayden Iose and TK Howden stood out again, but it was much too tall a task for the visitors.
On the road again this week, Manawatū have another big test in front of them and I am surprised to see them as just 3.5-point underdogs. The Turbos cover just 31% of their away games and the Stags will win this one with relative ease.
Best
Southland -3.5 ($1.92)
Value
Southland 1-12 ($2.90)
Bay of Plenty are now 2-0 after another impressive victory, this time toppling Counties Manukau 39-22 in Pukekohe. It looked like it was going to be a walk in the park for the Steamers after scoring two tries in the opening 15 minutes, but Counties were much more competitive for the rest of the half, until Naitoa Ah Kuoi dug his way over in the final play of the period to give BOP a 21-7 lead. However, it was a shaky start to the second half for the Steamers, as their repeated infringements in the first 40 led to a yellow card to Kurt Eklund in the 43rd minute, followed by another yellow one minute later, this time to Kaleb Trask for a deliberate knock-on. Counties scored twice before Trask’s return to cut BOP’s lead to just four points, but the Steamers sparked back to life when they were back to their full complement, running away with the game and topping it off with a great counter-attacking try, finished by Charlie Sinton. It was not a tidy performance from Bay of Plenty but their attack showed why they will be such a dangerous team in 2025, with Nikora Broughton, Ah Kuoi and Veveni Lasaqa impressing up front.
Canterbury took care of business against Auckland last week, fighting their way to a 19-15 win. It was a come-from-behind victory, with the visitors being the far better team in the first half, as Canterbury struggled to hold onto possession and spilt a clear-cut scoring opportunity through Jone Rova, but we saw a much-improved red and blacks outfit in the second 40. Zach Gallagher was the first to strike, before Rova made up for his first half blunder with a slick finish to give Canterbury the lead in what proved to be the match-winning try. Things were scrappy at scrum time and the hosts weren’t tidy with ball in hand, but Tom Christie stood tall in an industrious game, Corey Kellow was equally busy and Johnny McNicholl had some dangerous touches from the back.
Canterbury will need to be tidier if they are to topple the in-form Steamers, but they certainly have the quality to do just that and they are the bet as 4.5-point underdogs. The Steamers have yet to really be tested this season, and I expect Canterbury’s physical pack will undo them.
Best
Canterbury +4.5 ($1.87)
Value
Canterbury 1-12 ($3.60)
Northland picked up their first win of the season last week, coming from behind to beat Southland 22-17. Trailing by seven points with 20 minutes to play, it looked like the Taniwha were headed for an underwhelming loss in their first home game of the season. However, the big men rolled up their sleeves to score another two tries off lineout drives, leveraging their ascendency at the breakdown to win penalties and trap Southland in their own 22 for much of the final quarter of the game. It was a big performance from the bench to get them over the line, with James Mullan not only scoring a hattrick but also carrying regularly, while Terrell Peita got to work and in his 45 minutes of play and Solomon Alaimalo had some dangerous touches.
Tasman showed that they will again be one of the most feared teams in the competition, recording a 49-17 demolition of Manawatū last week. After Round 1’s stinker, in which Tasman fell to Bay of Plenty 7-37, the Mako were much better in the second round, this time starting off with a hiss and a roar to have a 28-0 lead inside the opening 30 minutes. Leicester Fainga’anuku was instrumental in that dominance, returning for his first Tasman game since 2022, scoring two tries and making defenders look silly on multiple occasions. No.8 Fletcher Anderson had some bustling runs and formed a great tandem with Ethan Blackadder.
After their Round 1 loss, Tasman reminded the competition last week of what they will be capable of in 2025, especially against sub-par teams, and Northland fall into that category which sets up a similar scoreline for this weekend’s clash. I can’t see the Taniwha getting all that close in this encounter. Northland are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games and will be outclassed here.
Best
Tasman -18.5 ($1.92)
Value
Tasman 21-30 ($3.80)
Auckland are now 0-2 after falling to another close defeat last week. Their 15-19 loss to Canterbury followed a 35-36 heartbreaker in the opening round, and last Saturday’s loss in Christchurch followed a similar pattern. It was an impressive start to the game from the Seagulls, scoring three consecutive tries to end the half and take a 15-7 lead into the sheds. However, the wheels fell off as the game went on, going scoreless in the second half while giving up two tries to the visitors, allowing them to hit the lead with 10 minutes to play, and Auckland couldn’t find a way back in front.
Taranaki made it a 2-0 start to their campaign, recording another 20-point victory, this time against North Harbour. Hitting the road for their first time this season, it wasn’t a straightforward task in front of the Bulls, but a clinical final 25 minutes of play ensured another big win. A see-sawing first half saw Taranaki take just a 20-19 lead into the break, but their defence picked up in the second 40 to help them dominate. Daniel Rona had another standout game, while the bench tight five members of Jesse Parete, JJ Pokai and Patrick O’Carroll-Haami all entered the game with real intensity.
This game has the makings of an old-fashioned arm-wrestle, and the bookies agree, marking Taranaki as just 0.5-point favourites. However, this game is Auckland’s to lose. With a young-but-solid forward pack and a superior bench, led by the return of Caleb Tangitau, the hosts will come out on top here.
Best
Auckland ($1.90)
Value
Auckland 1-12 ($2.90)
Hawke’s Bay continued their winning start to the season, defeating Otago 27-21 in Dunedin. It was a gutsy victory for the Magpies, who flew out to a 17-0 lead after a penalty goal off the boot of Harry Godfrey and tries from Ere Enari and Devan Flanders. However, two quick tries from the hosts cut the deficit to three points to make things interesting heading into the break. Another penalty goal and a try from Jacob Devery, who showed off some slick footwork for a hooker, pushed the Magpies’ lead back to double digits and despite an attempted comeback from Otago, HB showed plenty of grit to record a satisfying road win.
North Harbour are one of four winless teams through the opening two rounds, suffering a hefty 24-46 loss to Taranaki on Saturday. After a 25-38 loss to Manawatū in Round 1, there was hope that a trip home would breathe life into this Harbour outfit, and that looked to be the case through the opening 50 minutes of play, but things went downhill quickly after that point. The Bulls scored the first three tries of the game for a 0-15 lead but Harbour kept their composure, as Karl Ruzich, Kade Banks and Tom Hendrickson all dotted down before the break to make it a 19-20 scoreline. A try to the visitors moments into the second half was not the ideal start for Harbour, but Sofai Notoa-Tipo struck back for the hosts to set up an intriguing final 30 of play. However, it was all Taranaki from that point on, scoring a further three tries to hand Harbour another loss.
There is a chance that North Harbour are the worst team in the competition and, combining that with a testing trip down to Napier to take on the Magpies, things could get ugly at McLean Park. Hawke’s Bay have impressed on attack this season and Harbour have conceded 38 and 46 points in their first two games of the season, indicating that the Magpies will be in for a field day on Saturday night. HB cover 59% of their home games and will win well.
Best
Hawke’s Bay -17.5 ($1.90)
Value
Hawke’s Bay 21-30 ($3.80)
Wellington bounced back from a Round 1 loss in impressive fashion, heading to Hamilton to beat Waikato 35-24. After a subdued attacking performance last week, the Lions’ big guns were firing in the Tron, and that helped them get out to a 21-0 lead in the first half. They then conceded three tries on the bounce, letting the Mooloos back within four points, but a great solo try from Tjay Clarke and a craft finish from Akira Ieremia got the Lions comfortably back on top, seeing them improve to 1-1.
Otago were much better upon their return home in Round 2, pushing Hawke’s Bay to the brink in a 21-27 defeat. It was the definition of a back-and-forth contest, as the Razorbacks fell behind early on, thanks to 17 points from the Magpies inside the opening 25 minutes. However, Otago then produced a run of their own, scoring a pair of tries, including an outstanding solo effort from Fijian Drua lock Joseva Tamani, before Jona Nareki finished off a Sam Gilbert line break to make it 14-17. However, it was then the visitors’ turn to score some points, knocking over a penalty goal and scoring a converted try to push their lead out to 13 points, and that proved to be too much for the Razorbacks to overcome, despite Lucas Casey’s 79th minute try opening the chance of a comeback.
It’s another tough game in front of Otago on Sunday, but I expect them to put up a good fight against this Wellington team. They are capable of going toe-to-toe with this Lions pack and should they limit the ball that the hosts’ backs get, I can see this game going down to the wire. Wellington are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games.
Best
Otago +11.5 ($1.90)
Value
Wellington 1-12 ($3.00)
Waikato were outclassed last week, falling away from the highs of their Round 1 thriller to lose to Wellington 35-24. It was a disastrous start for the Mooloos, as they conceded the first three tries of the game to fall into a 21-point hole. With a niggly wind to contend with, as well as a Lions attack that was operating at full steam, nothing went right for Waikato in the opening 30 minutes but Oli Mathis decided it was then time to leave his mark on the game, breaking free from his own half, getting the hosts deep into Lions territory, which resulted in a try to Aaron Cruden and a 5-21 deficit at halftime. Xavier Roe then darted over shortly after halftime to give Waikato the ideal start to the second half and Xavier Saifoloi powered his way over the line minutes later to cut the deficit to just four points. Waikato’s defence couldn’t hang on, however, as the visitors scored the next two tries to seal the win and make it a losing home debut for the Mooloos.
It’s now two big defeats for Counties Manukau to start their season, following Sunday’s 22-39 loss to Bay of Plenty. After a 40-point hiding in Napier in Round 1, the Steelers would have been hoping for significant improvement in their first home game of the season, and while the scoreline was more respectable, it was a heavy home defeat for Counties. The Steamers ran in two tries inside the opening 15 minutes to make the score 0-14 and the margin stayed at 14 points at halftime, despite Counties putting plenty of pressure on the visitors. They were rewarded early in the second half, with BOP’s repeated red zone infringements resulting in a yellow card to Kurt Eklund, before Kaleb Trask was sin-binned moments later for a deliberate knock-on, helping CM score back-to-back tries through Cameron Church and Ioane Moananu to make it 17-21. That was as close as Counties would get, though, losing the rest of the game 5-18 to miss out on the losing bonus point and find themselves at the bottom of the table.
Despite a shocking start to the season, Counties are just 6.5-point underdogs on the road which I can’t make sense of. Waikato have clearly been the better team in 2025 and are one of the more reliable teams at home, covering 62.5% of their home games. CM are just 8-18 in their last 26 road games and won’t get close on Sunday.
Best
Waikato -6.5 ($1.90)
Value
Waikato 11-20 ($4.00)