It’s north vs south to kick off Round 2, as both teams come off an opening round defeat. Few would have been expecting a first-up win from Northland, as they travelled south to New Plymouth to challenge Taranaki for the Ranfurly Shield. It was a good opening half from the Taniwha, who weren’t short of chances, but their execution let them down to trail 3-13 heading into the sheds. The second half was less convincing from the visitors, as the Bulls shut them out of the game, with any scoring chances being squandered by basic errors to finish with a 3-23 defeat. Rivez Reihana tried to get the attack firing and Terrell Peita and Corey Evans had some dangerous touches, but not much clicked in the first outing of the year.
Southland were valiant in their season opener against their Otago foes but ultimately fell 15-24 to drop their Stag Day clash. The hosts started with a hiss and a road, as Jack Taylor dug his way over after a lineout maul, but they couldn’t keep their lead for long, as Otago scored just minutes later to hit the front. The visitors would keep their noses in front for the rest of the contest, as the Stags’ disastrous end to the first half proved to be the difference. Trailing just 8-10 at the 35-minute mark, the hosts were well and truly in the contest, before conceding two tries before halftime to head into the break down 8-24, which they were never able to recover from. Scott Gregory and Michael Manson were one of the few Stags players who got purchase from their carries, and they will be heavily involved again on the wings but things are about to get much tougher as they hit the road.
This Taniwha team is one that will cause some upsets in 2025, especially in the far north, and we will see them flex their muscles on Friday night. Their dangerous backline in tandem with their big pack will outclass the Stags. Southland are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games and will struggle to keep up with the scoring of the hosts.
Best
Northland -6.5 ($1.95)
Value
Northland 13+ ($2.70)
North Harbour’s opening game couldn’t have gone much worse, recording a 25-38 loss to Manawatū last Friday. It was a stalemate for the first 20 minutes, as Harbour failed to convert their territory into points in an error-ridden beginning, before the Turbos struck with the first try. It took Harbour just two minutes to respond with a try of their own, but come halftime the visitors were down 5-17. 13 straight points from the visitors, including eight off the boot of Patrick Pellegrini, turned the game on its head, as NH hit the front, but they crumbled almost immediately, conceding two tries in quick succession. Siaosi Nginingini gave Harbour hope again with five to play, with his try getting his team within six points, but the visitors fell asleep after scoring once more to allow Manawatū to score another try and close out the game. Kade Banks tried to get himself involved plenty and Pellegrini had some nice touches, while Jed Melvin stood out up front in an otherwise sloppy game from the men from the North Shore.
Taranaki were convincing in their season debut, successfully defending the Ranfurly Shield in the process. As 15.5-point favourites heading into the contest, the Bulls were always expected to get the job done, and that they did, giving Northland almost no chance in the 23-3 win. It’s fair to say that the hosts weren’t at their best on attack, often squandering chances deep in Taniwha territory, but their defence was immense and they presented very few opportunities to the visitors, who had just 41% possession. Kaylum Boshier was elite in all areas and the trio of Meihana Grindlay, Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens and Daniel Rona all had threatening runs on attack.
With another strong 23 named for Taranaki, we’ll see plenty of points scored in what is set to be a high-scoring game. The over is 8-3 in Harbour’s 11 games since the start of last season and is 5-2 in Taranaki’s last seven road games.
Best
Over 60.5 ($1.90)
Value
Anytime Try Scorer — Josh Jacomb ($2.95)
Lima Sopoaga provided the golden touch in his return to first-class rugby, helping Waikato complete their comeback with a late try to topple Auckland. The Mooloos found themselves down 12-32 with 20 minutes to play, seemingly with no chance of a comeback in a game where they had been dominated for the opening hour, but Oli Mathis burrowed over to spark life into the visitors and it was game on from there. Tepaea Cook-Savage and Rui Farrant added two additional tries, before Sopoaga broke Auckland’s line near halfway, found Cook-Savage in support and then received the pass back to dive over the chalk before Aaron Cruden added the extras to give Waikato a one-point lead. Auckland’s potential game-winner drop goal was then charged down, seeing the visitors seal a highly improbable win at Eden Park, with Dan Sinkinson, Josh Moorby, Waisake Salabiau and Mathis having standout displays.
Wellington were one of the big disappointments to come out of Round 1, crashing to a 15-33 defeat at home against Canterbury. It was always going to be a difficult first-up clash with a stacked red and blacks team, but the defending champions looked to be more than up for the challenge in the opening 55 minutes, with a Jackson Garden-Bachop giving the hosts a 10-7 lead. However, things quickly went downhill for the Lions from there, as Canterbury scored three tries in 15 minutes to get out to an unassailable 16-point lead. Wellington weren’t without their chances and they gave up a couple of soft tries, including a long-range intercept runaway, but the polish and precision simply wasn’t there for the 2024 champions.
The Lions should be better this week after their Round 1 mess, but Waikato will present a stern challenge in the Tron. It’s a huge Waikato pack, and that will make it hard for Wellington to make inroads up front, but the Lions’ backs possess plenty of danger and that will keep them in the game. As small underdogs, the visitors are good value.
Best
Wellington +1.5 ($1.92)
Value
Wellington 1-12 ($3.20)
Canterbury are looking like one of the teams to beat early on after beating the defending champions 33-15 on their home ground in Round 1. It was the dream start for Marty Bourke’s men, as Braydon Ennor sent Johnny McNicholl across the chalk in the corner, but Wellington worked their way into the contest from there, seeing the scores tied 7-7 at halftime. The Lions were the first to score in the second 40 but it was all Canterbury from that point on, as the visitors ran in four of the next five tries to close out an emphatic bonus point win in Porirua. Canterbury were opportunistic and ruthless in the victory, often pouncing on the Lions’ mistakes and making much better use of the ball, despite having just 43% possession. Tom Christie was a workhorse once more, topping the tackle charts with 24, while McNicholl and Ngantungane Punivai were the most dangerous of the backs.
Auckland threw away the perfect chance at an opening victory last week, eventually going down against Waikato 35-36. It was the blockbuster that the folks at NZ Rugby would have been hoping for to start the season, as Waikato came back from 32-12 down to win in dramatic fashion, but from Auckland’s perspective, it was a nightmare start to their season. Everything was looking rosy in the opening hour, especially early on as Anton Segner and Xavier Tito-Harris both scored in the opening 15 minutes to give the hosts a 14-point lead. The Mooloos quickly got back within two points, but a yellow card shifted the momentum back in the hosts’ favour, seeing them score the next 18 points. Payton Spencer’s tidy finish in the 59th minute gave Auckland a 20-point buffer, but they fell asleep at the wheel, as Steven Bates’ men let some soft tries through late to lose in heartbreaking fashion.
They will need to be switched on for the full 80 minutes if they are to be any chance of winning in Christchurch, but I expect this Canterbury team to be too good. Their pack was polished and their backs clinical last week, and against an Auckland team that is still very much gelling, the hosts will win comfortably. Auckland are just 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games.
Best
Canterbury -6.5 ($1.90)
Value
Canterbury 13+ ($2.50)
Counties Manukau were never given a chance against Hawke’s Bay last week, falling to a 14-54 loss. The Magpies were all over them early on, dominating territory and possession and that resulted in a 0-21 lead for the hosts 30 minutes in. Leo Ngatai-Tafau crossed the chalk just before the break to give the Steelers some hope heading into the second 40, but the Magpies won the kick-off in the second half and scored almost immediately, to reinstate a 21-point buffer. It didn’t take long for Counties to hit back, this time through Jimmy Tupou, benefitting off a couple of strong Hoskins Sotutu runs, but that would be all she wrote for the Steelers, as the hosts ran riot in the final 15 minutes to make the scoreline ugly. Jonty Short worked hard for the visitors and Suetena Asomua and Sione Molia tried to make their presence known late on after coming off the bench, but there were few positives for Counties.
Bay of Plenty looked every bit like title contenders in their first game of the season, trouncing a star-studded Tasman team 37-7. As narrow home underdogs, the Steamers blew the Mako off the paddock, starting with a pair of tries through Kaleb Trask and Kurt Eklund in the opening 15 minutes. The visitors started to find their feet from then on, spending plenty of time deep in BOP’s half, but the defence of the Steamers held firm to take a 10-0 lead into the break. Tasman eventually cracked the hosts’ defence minutes into the second half, but it was all BOP from then on, as their backs ran riot to score a further three tries, before Emoni Narawa added the icing on the cake with a last-minute drop goal to blow the margin out to 30 points. Trask, Narawa, Leroy Carter and Veveni Lasaqa were among the Steamers’ best in a game where everything seemed to click in the second 40.
I’m surprised to see the Steamers as just 10.5-point favourites heading into this clash. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the margin get into the 20s, which makes the visitors great value. There is a clear gap in class between these teams and BOP are historically a great road team, covering 59% of their games.
Best
Bay of Plenty -10.5 ($1.90)
Value
Bay of Plenty 11-20 ($3.50)
Otago will be happy to have started off their season on a winning note, especially given that the victory came over their fierce rivals in Southland. The 24-15 win saw Otago showcase plenty of grit, immediately responding to the Stags’ opening try before Christian Lio-Willie and Will Stodart scored in quick succession before halftime to open up a 24-8 lead for the visitors. It was a much more subdued second half from the Razorbacks, failing to record any points as both sides got increasingly more sloppy as the game went on, but come the 80-minute hooter, it was Otago who came out on top. Lio-Willie was immense for the Razorbacks, leading their strong defensive effort with 22 tackles, while Henry Bell, Charles Elton and Stodart added 20, 19 and 18 respectively. Thomas Umaga-Jensen and Jona Nareki looked dangerous with ball in hand they’re set to form another strong combo this week.
Hawke’s Bay had one of the more complete performances of Round 1, putting together a big finish to record a 54-14 win over Counties Manukau. The Magpies have been a dominant team at home in recent seasons (23-5 since start of 2020 season) and it looks like that will be the case again in 2025. Hawke’s Bay started with a bang on Sunday, as Nick Grigg finished off a nice move on the back of a Jacob Devery offload, and as Jonah Lowe and Kienan Higgins also dotted down in the opening half, the hosts were sitting pretty at 21-7 at the half. Things only got better for Brock James’ men in the second 40, as Lukas Ripley benefited from a smart pass from Higgins to dive over and open the scoring, kickstarting what would be a 33-point half from the Magpies. There was class throughout HB’s attack, with Higgins, Grigg, Zarn Sullivan and Harry Godfrey all leaving their mark, while the loosies trio of Miracle Faiilagi, Cooper Flanders and Devan Flanders proved to be dynamic.
The Magpies promise to again be one of the more exciting teams to watch this season but we have seen much of their recent successes take place at home, and they don’t deserve to be 5.5-point favourites in Dunedin on Sunday. Otago are 11-6 ATS in their last 17 home games and will put up a strong fight as home underdogs.
Best
Otago +5.5 ($1.90)
Value
Tri-Bet — Either Team By Under 7.5 ($2.60)