Auckland will be eager to put their 2024 season behind them, as they finished with just a 3-7 record in 11th place. They will almost certainly improve on that terrible record, but they have more than a few departures to contend with. Akira Ioane, Harry Plummer and Zarn Sullivan are some of the big names to have departed the province in 2025, while some key contributors such as Marcel Renata and Nigel Ah Wong have also departed. However, some exciting new names have entered the fray, with the likes of Alex Harford, Codemaru Vai, Sam Hainsworth-Fa’afo and James Arscott all being named in the 23 for the season opener. It is indeed a strong 23 named by new head coach Steve Bates, with Super Rugby experience littered throughout. In the tight five, Angus Ta’avao-Matau, Joshua Fusitua and Josh Beehre bring bundles of quality and size, while Anton Segner, Taufa Funaki, AJ Lam, Xavi Taele and Vai add plenty of class elsewhere in the starting lineup.
Waikato never truly got going in 2024, at least in the regular season, finishing with a 5-5 record to squeeze into the finals as the seventh-ranked team. However, they produced a significant upset in the quarters, beating the second-ranked Taranaki in New Plymouth, before falling to the eventual champions, Wellington, in the semis. A very steady squad has been named by returning head coach Ross Filipo, with almost all of his big guns back again for 2025, other than those on All Blacks duty. Oli Mathis promises to provide excitement from anywhere on the field again this season, this week starting at openside flanker after playing Waikato’s two finals games last season on the right wing. James Tucker and Laghlan McWhannell form a big and physical second row, while Xavier Roe will be a standout halfback in the competition. The 13-14-15 jerseys of Bailyn Sullivan, Josh Moorby and Daniel Sinkinson will be energetic and the first five-eighths Aaron Cruden (starting) and Lima Sopoaga (bench) will transport us back 10 years when they take the field.
All that is to say, this is a solid Mooloos team with some bright spots, but this Auckland lineup will have their number. With a strong tight five, relentless ball-runners, strong kickers and plenty of flair out wide, Auckland will be too good in the opener.
Best
Auckland -4.5 ($1.95)
Value
Auckland 1-12 ($2.70)
Manawatū had a season to forget in 2024, taking home the wooden spoon with a 1-9 record and have retooled for the upcoming season. No less than 17 players have departed Palmerston North in the offseason, while Ngani Laumape headlines the additions. Alongside TK Howden and Brayden Iose, the Turbos have some of the best ball-runners in the competition but there are plenty of flaws elsewhere in the squad. An inexperienced tight five and a lack of depth in most positions mean that it will be another long season for the Turbos, starting with Friday’s clash against North Harbour.
Harbour fell short of the mark in 2024, finishing with a 3-7 record to finish in 10th place. It was a strange season for the men from the North Shore, with four of their losses coming by less than seven points, and a points difference of +26 — the only team to miss finals with a positive points difference. New head coach Jimmy Maher has been brought in and he has made some key additions to the team, including Moana Pasifika first five-eighth Patrick Pellegrini and his prop teammate James Lay, while veteran halfback Luke Campbell comes into the team to replace Bryn Hall. Cam Christie and Cameron Suafoa are out with injury, giving the forward pack’s depth a bit of a hit, and it will be up front where Harbour’s struggles will come this season. With a relatively soft schedule to the season against the Turbos, a winning start will be expected from Maher’s men, but it won’t come easily.
If anything, Harbour have taken a backwards step with their personnel in 2025 and Manawatū will not roll over easily at home. Harbour are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.
Best
Manawatū +9.5 ($1.90)
Value
Power Plays — Jordi Viljoen 1st OR 2nd Try Scorer ($11)
Wellington and Canterbury headline the opening round, as the defending champions look to pick up where they left off in 2024. They will be without a few key contributors from that title-winning team, including Peter Umaga-Jensen and Pepesana Patafilo, but the lion’s share of the team have returned for 2025, making Wellington a real chance of going back-to-back. While technically in the Lions’ squad, Du’Plessis Kirifi is on All Blacks duty and likely won’t feature much this campaign which is a significant loss for the men from the capital, but with the likes of Brad Shields, Peter Lakai and Caleb Delany in the loosies, they are well-equipped to plug that gap. Matt Proctor returns to Wellington to start in the midfield next to fellow veteran Julian Savea, while Ruben Love and Tjay Clarke add some excitement in the back three. It’s a rock-solid forward pack too, with a mix of size and experience forming what will be one of the competition’s best packs.
Canterbury fans were taken for a ride in 2024, culminating in a sixth-place finish, a jaw-dropping 62-14 upset win over Tasman in the quarters and a 12-point loss in the semis against Bay of Plenty. The red and blacks will be aiming for more stability in 2025 and they have a strong enough squad to do just that, headlined by the likes of Braydon Ennor, Cullen Grace, Tom Christie and Chay Fihaki. There is plenty of Super Rugby experience throughout, and it’s in the forwards where head coach Marty Bourke will look to dominate play. The halves are looking like a weak spot, and that may well stop Canterbury from being an elite side in 2024, which will be evident on Saturday.
Despite being at home, the Lions are just 2.5-point favourites which is a surprise. Both teams have named a stacked 23 for this level, but the depth of the Lions will set them apart and we’ll see that reflected in the final score at Porirua Park.
Best
Wellington -2.5 ($1.95)
Value
Wellington 1-12 ($2.90)
One of the NPC’s marquee rivalries makes for an exciting Saturday afternoon showdown, with the Stags looking to make it a winning start to 2025. It was another grim year for Southland in 2024, finishing the season with just two wins for a 2-8 record, with the silver lining being that they avoided the wooden spoon. There’s been no shortage of changes in the deep south over the summer, with almost 20 players departing, including Dylan Nel, Viliami Fine and Josh Bekhuis. Former Highlander Scott Gregory is the big-name recruit, while former Otago lock Sam Fischli, former Munster lock Cian Hurley and ex-Canterbury halfback Nic Shearer also join the squad. Stags strongholds, such as Mitch Dunshea, Sean Withy, Isaac Te Tamaki, Matt Whaanga and Rory van Vugt return to bolster the team, and while it’s hard to see this Southland outfit causing too much trouble in 2025, I won’t be writing them off in this derby on Saturday.
Otago have named another solid team for 2025 after agonisingly missing out on finals footy last season. As one of three teams with a 5-5 record, the Razorbacks’ inferior points difference meant they missed out on the last finals berth, despite winning their last three games of the year. However, their midseason slump, which saw them lose four on the bounce, culminating in a 28-point thumping against Counties Manukau, meant that they fell just short. It’s another big and imposing pack at Otago’s disposal this season, with Abraham Pole, Will Tucker and Christian Lio-Willie an example of some of the quality that they possess up front. In the backs, Finn Hurley, Thomas Umaga-Jensen and Jona Nareki are some of the gamebreakers in their arsenal, and the squad’s depth and quality will help them overcome the Stags on Saturday.
This is a gritty Southland team, however, and they won’t make it easy — especially in Invercargill — and I expect this game to be a real arm wrestle. The under is 7-3 in the Stags’ last 10 home games and is 6-2 in Otago’s last eight on the road.
Best
Under 57.5 ($1.90)
Value
Otago 1-12 ($2.80)
Taranaki host the first Ranfurly Shield defence of the NPC season on Saturday night, as Northland come to town. After winning the Shield from Tasman in the final round of last season, this will be the Bulls’ first defence in an NPC game, and they understandably come in as heavy favourites with the squad that they have named for this season. While some Taranaki legends, including Ricky Riccitelli, Stephen Perofeta and Jayson Potroz, have left the team, a very strong core remains at Bulls HQ. Josh Lord, Kaylum Boshier, Josh Jacomb, Daniel Rona, Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkins and Fiji international Taniela Rakuro are just some of the stars in the Naki and they will again be one of the best attacking units in the competition in 2025.
Northland have seen a swath of departures in the offseason, with Jarred Adams, Matt Matich, Saimoni Uluinakuvadra, Dan Hawkins and Heremaia Murray among the veterans and key cogs to have hit the road. Reesjan Pasitoa is one of the big ins, with the Western Force first and second five-eighth forming an exciting pairing with Rivez Reihana at 10 and 12. Ofa Tu’ungafasi and Simon Parker add some quality to the pack, and a very solid tight five has been named for Saturday’s clash. That will help Northland stay competitive in this clash and I expect this game to be much closer than the bookies are expecting. Taranaki covered just two of their last eight games in 2024 and the market is overestimating them again to start their 2025 campaign.
Best
Northland +15.5 ($1.90)
Value
Power Plays — Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens OR Jordan Trainor 1st Try Scorer & Either Team Win by 1 – 7 ($26)
Bay of Plenty came agonisingly close to winning just their second-ever first division title last season, losing the final in extra time in Wellington, 20-23. It was a gruelling contest and the Steamers will feel like they could have come out on the right side of the scoreline on another day, and they get the chance to make amends this season with another elite squad named. Aidan Ross, Justin Sangster, Cody Vai, Willis Halaholo and Manaaki Selby-Rickit have left the franchise, leaving some considerably large holes to fill, and Richard Watt has done a good job in recruiting the men to do so. Rameka Poihipi, Tevita Mafileo, Ngarohi McGarvey-Black and Lalomilo Lalomilo are some of the big-name additions to the Steamers’ squad, joining the likes of Naitoa Ah Kuoi, Caleb Trask, Leroy Carter and Fehi Fineanganofo to form another impressive team.
Tasman will again be a force to be reckoned with in the NPC, with Gray Cornelius again at the helm of a very strong team. There is no shortage of international- and Super Rugby-quality players across the lineup, including a trio of former All Blacks populating their halfback slots, in Finlay Christie, Mitchell Drummond and Noah Hotham. Their midfield stocks are almost as stacked, with Levi Aumua, Leicester Faingaʻanuku and David Havili offering an elite array of options. There are, of course, parts of the ground where the Mako are less well off, such as in the front row and at first five-eighth, but with a tonne of attacking firepower, Tasman will be very hard to beat on their day.
Should they be firing on Sunday, it could well be a winning start for the Mako, but this Bay of Plenty team are too good to look past at home. They should have the slight edge in the pack and with a lethal backline to let loose, the Steamers present strong value as home underdogs.
Best
Bay of Plenty +2.5 ($1.90)
Value
Bay of Plenty 1-12 ($3.40)
Hawke’s Bay won four on the bounce to start their 2024 campaign but lost steam as the season went on, eventually falling in the quarter-finals to Bay of Plenty. Relinquishing their rights to ‘The Bay’ moniker for the offseason would have hurt, but returning coach Brock James has done well to recruit Zarn Sullivan and Miracle Fai’ilagi, setting up what will be another high-octane Magpies unit. Joel Hintz, Josh Kaifa, Ben O’Donnell and Danny Toala are among the departing troops in Hawke’s Bay, but this is a squad with firepower throughout, including Pouri Rakete-Stones, Isaiah Walker-Leawere, Devan Flanders
Fai’ilagi, Folau Fakatava, Jonah Lowe and Sullivan. The big question will be whether they can fix up their leaky defence from 2024, which was the second-worst in the competition, only behind the lowly Manawatū.
Counties Manukau fought their way into an eighth-place finish last season, earning a quarter-finals berth in the process, and while things did not go to plan in their 15-31 QF loss to Taranaki, it was certainly a successful season for the Steelers. With a relatively stable squad named by head coach Reon Graham, there will be hope that the men from Counties can build on their 2024 campaign, with stalwarts Jimmy Tupou, Jonathan Taumateine, Riley Hohepa and Suetana Asomua among those returning for another crack. However, the key to improvement will largely lie in the hands of the electric Etene Nanai-Seturo, who played just three games for Counties last season and has proven to be one of the best outside backs at this level of the game. If he is at his best, he will make the Steelers a dangerous attack and with Hoskins Sotutu suiting up this week, some of the competition’s best attacking players will be at Counties’ disposal. Just how much ball they will get against a solid Magpies pack will be crucial in determining the outcome of this game
What we can expect in this clash is plenty of running rugby, with two of last season’s more willing attacks going head-to-head, and that sets us up for a big scoreline. The over cashed in four of Counties’ last five games in 2024 and in four of the Magpies’ last five.
Best
Over 61.5 ($1.90)
Value
Hawke’s Bay 1-12 ($2.90)