Australia v British & Irish Lions — Third Test | Tips & Preview

History
With last week’s dramatic victory in Melbourne, the Lions improved their all-time record against Australia to 19-6. The visitors have now won four of their last five games against the Wallabies, including three on the bounce. There have been two games between these sides played at Accor Stadium, with one win apiece, while the all-time record in Sydney is 4-9, dating back to their first-ever encounter at the Sydney Cricket Ground in 1899.

Form
The Wallabies were left fuming after they were controversially denied what would have been a huge win in the second Test. Referee Andrea Piardi deemed Jac Morgan’s cleanout on Carlo Tizzano in the lead-up to the Lions’ match-winning try to be legal, handing the Wallabies a 26-29 defeat in the process after what was a much more energetic performance from Joe Schmidt’s men. The ball-carrying of Harry Wilson, Len Ikitau and Rob Valetini helped the hosts get on the front foot, which they weren’t able to do last week, helping open up a 23-5 lead 31 minutes in. However, their gainline successes and their possession advantage wore away as the game went on, as the accuracy of the Lions, especially up front, resulted in a loss and an unsalvageable 0-2 series deficit.

For the Lions, they will be elated to have sealed the series victory in a hard-fought win. Hugo Keenan was the late hero, with an 80th-minute game-winning try, getting on the outside of Ikitau and dotting down, but it was again the Lions’ rock-solid defence and their improvements at the scrum that were vital in their victory. After falling down by 18 points late in the first half, they were able to score two tries in three minutes to cut the deficit to six points at the break and they carried that momentum through to the second 40, with their physicality being a big factor in their control of the game in the second half. Tadhg Beirne was formidable again and the likes of Maro Itoje, Jack Conan and Tom Curry all had critical plays.

Teams
Australia: 1 James Slipper, 2 Billy Pollard, 3 Taniela Tupou, 4 Nick Frost, 5 Will Skelton, 6 Tom Hooper, 7 Fraser McReight, 8 Harry Wilson, 9 Nic White, 10 Tom Lynagh, 11 Dylan Pietsch, 12 Len Ikitau, 13 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 14 Max Jorgensen, 15 Tom Wright, 16 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 17 Angus Bell, 18 Zane Nonggorr, 19 Jeremy Williams, 20 Langi Gleeson, 21 Tate McDermott, 22 Ben Donaldson, 23 Andrew Kellaway.

British & Irish Lions: 1 Andrew Porter, 2 Dan Sheehan, 3 Tadgh Furlong, 4 Maro Itoje (capt), 5 James Ryan, 6 Tadhg Beirne, 7 Tom Curry, 8 Jack Conan, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 10 Finn Russell, 11 Blair Kinghorn, 12 Bundee Aki, 13 Huw Jones, 14 Tommy Freeman, 15 Hugo Keenan, 16 Ronan Kelleher, 17 Ellis Genge, 18 Will Stuart, 19 Ollie Chessum, 20 Jac Morgan, 21 Ben Earl, 22 Alex Mitchell, 23 Owen Farrell.

The Wallabies have run into an injury crisis heading into the third Test, with both originally-named hookers, David Porecki and Matt Faessler, being scratched. That sees Billy Pollard start at hooker, while veteran rake Brandon Paenga-Amosa has been rushed onto the bench. Allan Alaalatoa and Rob Valetini are also out with injury, as Taniela Tupou and Tom Hooper take their spots, while Nic White has been named as starting halfback in what is set to be his final Test match.

It’s a relatively stable 23 for the Lions, with Blair Kinghorn and James Ryan being the only new starters in the XV, in place of James Lowe and Ollie Chessum, respectively. On the bench, Ben Earl has returned to the team as Andy Farrell has opted for a 6-2 split this week.

The Verdict
The Lions wrapped up the series win in controversial fashion last week and they haven’t let their foot off the gas for the third-and-final Test, at least when it comes to team selection. Andy Farrell has named a near full-strength 23 for the Sydney showdown, but the major differences heading into this clash is on the Wallabies’ side. The losses of Rob Valetini, Dave Porecki and Allan Alaalatoa are all huge and their forward pack has lost some serious grunt and ball-running because of it. That will see a shift back to what we saw in the first Test, where the Lions continually shut down Australia’s attack and made things look easy in the opening 60 minutes. While there might not be huge motivation for the Lions to win this one, their superior quality and class will shine through to close out the series in a sweep.

The Prediction
British & Irish Lions by 14

Best
British & Irish Lions -8.5 ($1.95)

Value
British & Irish Lions 11-20 ($3.50)