They may have been out of finals contention a long time ago but there is no such thing as a dead rubber. The Blues were big winners over the Power last week and will want to end a horror season on a high. Meanwhile, the Bombers are desperate to end an 11-game losing streak and provide their fans with something to cheer for. The Blues have won 5 of the last 6 meetings including the last two. They have won and covered the line in the last 4 meetings when listed as the away team and despite a poor run of results, they are 5-0 at the line in their last 5 games leading into this one. The Under has held on in 73% of Blues away games in the last year and 7 of their last 8 matches following a win.
Best Bet: Blues WIN/Under 167.5 points ($2.30)
The Pies lost a nail-biter to the Crows in Round 23 and a 1-5 record in their last 6 has placed them in danger of dropping out of the top 4. The Demons won’t be doing them any favours but have serious issues of their own. They have lost 9 of their last 11 games including their last 6 as the away team. This series is no exception with respect to struggles as the Magpies are 5-0 both straight up and at the line in the last 5 clashes as the home team. The Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings and this lines up nicely with the Pies recent run of 6 consecutive Unders games. The Demons have been notoriously slow starters and have led at the first break in only 7 of 22 games played while the Magpies have been clinical in the 3rd quarter with a 174% scoring percentage. They are well-positioned to end their losing streak and take winning form with them into the finals series.
Best Bet: 1st Quarter Winner – Magpies, 3rd Quarter Magpies -4.5 ($2.62)
The Suns failed to secure a spot in the finals following a home loss to the Giants but superior percentages and a game in hand at home to the Bombers on Wednesday means they should be safe. That said, they control their own destiny, and two big wins could earn them a top 4 finish. The Suns have won 5 of their last 7 games following a loss with the Over hitting in 71% of those matches. The Over has hit in the Powers’ last 4 matches leading into this and in each of the last 3 meetings in this series which suggests a high scoring contest. The Suns have been effective in this spot having won 7 of their last 8 as an away favourite and successfully covering the line in 6 of those games (75%).
Best Bet: Over 170.5 points ($1.88)
A five-goal haul from Paul Curtis and a record equalling 54 disposals from Harry Sheezel provided Kangaroos fans with an unlikely memorable afternoon. They can now play the role of spoiler and deny the Crows their first minor premiership since 2017. The Crows have won 8 in a row and have held their last 5 opponents to an average of 60.4ppg. The Under has held on in 12 of their last 16 games on the back of a win but this is a situation where they are facing a team that they have completely dominated. They have won their last 7 battles against the Kangaroos and have averaged 116.4ppg across those matches. The Over has hit in 6 of the last 8 matches hosted by the Kangaroos and the visitors will be eager to clinch the minor premiership in style.
Best Bet: Over 176.5 points ($1.88)
The Cats will be assuming that the Crows will take care of business against the Kangaroos, but they cannot afford any complacency here. A win would secure second place (at worst) and a home qualifying final. They picked apart the Tigers last week 124-52 and have won 5 of the last 6 meetings. The Over has hit in the last three clashes hosted by the Tigers and is 5-0 in the Cats last 5 away games prior to this. The Tigers have covered the line in 7 of their last 11 as a home underdog and if the Cats have this one wrapped up at three-quarter time, we could see them give several of their star players an early shower. That would help the Tigers cover the line and potentially win the fourth quarter outright.
Best Bet: Tigers +60.5, 4th Quarter Winner – Tigers ($6.05)
The Eagles only win this season came back in Round 10 and the bulk of their performances in the last months suggests they have been thinking about the offseason for some time. They have conceded 125+ points in 3 of their last 4 and have been outscored 140-65 across the 4th quarters of those games. As the worst performed team in the second half this season those figures do not come as a surprise. The Eagles have lost 4 in a row against the Swans and are 0-6 in the last 6 meetings as a home outsider. The Under had held on in 8 of the Swans last 11 games following a loss but you can put that trend aside as they have averaged 137ppg in their last three against the Eagles.
Best Bet: Swans -28.5/Over 165.5 points ($3.25)
An upset win away to the Suns has secured the Giants a spot in the finals and the result against their battle with the Saints will determine their seeding. A month ago, they would have comfortably pencilled in the points for this game but the Saints have decided to take winning form with them into the offseason and have claimed the points on offer in each of their last four games. Despite their recent run, the Saints have covered the line in only 2 of their last 10 following a win while the Giants have won and covered the line in their previous 4 home games. The Giants are seeking a fourth consecutive win in this matchup, and it could be defence which separates the two. The Under is 3-0 in the Saints last 3 games and has also held on in 67% of Giants games on the back of a win in the last year.
Best Bet: Under 172.5 points ($1.88)
Western Bulldogs v Fremantle
The Dockers loss to the Lions means that the finals series starts one week early for these two teams. The winner will play finals footy at the expense of the loser and the team that misses out will feel hard done by. The Dockers have won 10 of their last 12 games but have won only 1 of their last 8 as an away underdog in this series. A 2-6 line record on those games highlights their struggles and history suggests their attack will need to fire. The Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings and has hit in 6 of the last 8 hosted by the Bulldogs including each of the last 4. The Bulldogs have averaged 126.5ppg during their 4-game win streak with the duo of Naughton and Darcy combining for 26 goals across those games.
Best Bet: Over 171.5 points, Naughton 3+ goals ($2.93)
The Lions improved to 5-1 both straight up and at the line after a loss with a big win over the Dockers and now control their own destiny with respect to a top 4 finish. A win would secure a double chance in the finals but they will need to overcome a Hawks side that have claimed some big scalps while compiling an 8-2 record in their last 10. The Hawks have won 5 of the last 6 meetings in this series with the Lions victory earlier this season ending a 5-game losing streak. The Hawks have been very strong defensively in the second half of the season and have held their last two opponents to 63.2ppg. The Under is 8-5 in Hawks away games in the last year and has also survived in 64% of Lions home games in the same period.
Best Bet: Under 168.5 points ($1.88)