The Pies were outplayed by the Lions and a 3rd loss in their last 4 games has seen them dethroned from the top of the AFL ladder. The Hawks position in the top 8 is also under threat after they failed to convert a 22-point lead at quarter time against the Crows. The Hawks have won 12 of the last 13 meetings when listed as the home team in this matchup which includes a 7-0 record at the line in the last 7. The Pies have failed to cover the line in their last 4 games leading into this one but have been victorious in 4 of their previous 5 games following a loss. The Under is 6-2 in the Hawks last 8 games on the back of a loss and is 4-0 in the Pies last 4 leading into this one. They have averaged 72.25ppg in their last 4 which is almost two fewer goals per game than their season average of 82.8ppg.
The Cats were slow off the blocks against the power but kicked 15 goals in a second half clinic to win a third consecutive game and solidify a place in the top 4. Meanwhile, the Bombers fought hard against the Swans, but it was not enough to avoid a 9th straight loss. They will almost certainly need to wait another week to try and end their losing streak as the Cats have dominated this matchup. They have won and covered the line in each of the last 8 meetings and have won 11 in a row as the home team – successfully covering the line in the last 6. The Cats have piled on the points against teams currently not occupying a spot in the top 8 with an average of 131.3ppg in their last eight games facing such teams. The home team will be improving their scoring percentages in this one.
It was an abysmal display from the Tigers in an 84-point loss to the Suns last week. They failed to kick a single major in the first half and ended the game with only 2 goals from 13 scoring shots. The Saints squeezed past the Kangaroos to make it back-to-back wins – improving to a 5-4 record in their last 9 following a win. They have won the last 4 meetings and have lost only 1 of their last 11 against the Tigers when installed as the betting favourite. The Tigers have a poor 33% strike rate at the line following a loss in the last year and their struggles in front of goal have seen the Under hold on in 10 of their last 12 home games. Both teams have scored only 46% of their points in the first half which suggests limited scoring prior to the main break.
Not only did the Lions improve to 5-2 in their last 7 after a loss, but they knocked the Pies off their perch with a commanding 27-point win. The Swans edged out the field in a scrappy win over the Bombers, but an inferior scoring percentage has them out of finals contention. The Lions have won the last 5 meetings with two of the last three being decided by less than a single kick. The overall record does not do the Swans justice as they have covered the line in 3 of their last 4 as the away team in this series. A low scoring contest could also work in their favour here. The Under is 9-3 in the Lions last 12 home games and have also held on in 63% of their games following a win in the last year. The Swans have scored 27% of their points in the opening quarter, their highest scoring term this season. That trend will need to continue for them as the Lions have led at quarter time in 70% of their games this year.
Back-to-back wins over the Lions and Tigers have the Suns in contention for a top 4 finish. They tallied 100+ points in each of those games – something the Blues achieved only once this season in consecutive games against the bottom two teams (Eagles and Kangaroos). The Blues have won 3 in a row against the Suns but have failed to deliver in this spot with wins in only 3 of their last 15 games as the betting outsider. In comparison, the Suns have posted a 6-1 record both straight up and at the line in their last 7 matches as an away favourite. Failing to trouble the scoreboard has made the Blues one of the premier Unders teams. The Under has held on in 75% of their games following a loss in the last year and 83% of their home games during the same period.
The Dockers are in the hunt for a top 4 finish following a run of 10 wins in the last 11 including victory in each of their last 4. In contrast, the Power have fallen out of finals contention on the back of losses in their last three. Despite the current gap between them on the ladder, the Power who have won 7 in a row at home to the Dockers with a 6-1 line record in those games. Notably, they have been the betting elect in all those wins but have claimed victory in only 2 of their last 12 battles against the Dockers as the underdog. The Power have conceded 120+ points in 3 of their last 5 matches and that spells trouble as the Dockers have averaged 91.8ppg in their last 5 – an impressive feat when you consider that they faced the Pies and Hawks during that stretch.
The Giants had won 6 in a row leading into their battle against the Bulldogs in a run that included wins over the Suns, Lions, Cats and Swans. Their bubble burst in dramatic fashion with the Bulldogs beating them by 88 points. They are clinging on to 8th spot but will need to win and win well here to improve their percentages. The Giants have won and covered the line in their last 3 home games but have failed at the line in their previous 4 at home to the Kangaroos. History suggests the Giants will bounce back as they have covered the line in 6 of their last 9 games following a loss with the Over hitting in 67% of those games. The Over has hit in the last two meetings between these two sides with the Giants scoring 100+ points in each of their last three against the Roos.
They won their respective games last week by a combined total of 171 points in Round 21 but the Bulldogs 88-point win over the Giants is far more noteworthy than a victory of the bottom-placed Eagles. The Demons have won and covered the line in their last 4 at home to the Bulldogs but the visitors have been clinical in this spot having won 5 of their last 6 as an away favourite. The Bulldogs have destroyed teams in the bottom half this season with 127+ points scored in 7 of their last 8 against teams currently below them on the ladder. The Over has hit in the last 9 clashes hosted by the Demons which lines up very nicely with the Bulldogs 9-2 Over record in away games played in the last year.
The Eagles were on the wrong end of another thrashing against the Demons. They have now lost their last 10 games and done so by an average of 44.8 points. In contrast, the Crows have won 6 in a row with an average of 110.3ppg during that stretch. The Crows have won their last 6 games against the Eagles and have scored 123+ points in each of the last four battles. The visitors have covered the line in each of their last 5 away games leading into this one and this is accompanied by a 6-2 line record in their last 8 games following a win. The Crows have earned their spot at the top and will not be relinquishing it here. They have piled on the points in the first half this season and have outscored their opponents in the second term in 18 of 20 games played. Look for them to build a big lead heading into half time.