We’ve reached the penultimate week of the PGA Tour season with the 50 top golfers of the year vying for glory in the time-honoured BMW Championship, an event that traces its lineage back 125 years and has produced a stellar list of recent champions including last year’s champion Keegan Bradley.
Key Stats/Skill Set Required
- Driving Distance
- Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
- GIR
- Approaches: 175-200 Yards
- Putting Average
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Birdie or Better
Caves Valley is a Fazio design that was opened in 1991 and renovated in 2020 before the staging of the 2021 BMW Championship won by Patrick Cantlay. It ranked the second easiest on tour that year with a playoff at -27 deciding the event. Immaculate putting is essential here. Like all BMW Championships, distance is critical.
Key Correlation Courses/Tournaments
- Corrales Puntacana Resort
- Congaree Golf Club
- Conway Farms
- Quail Hollow
- Riviera Country Club
- Sea Island
Rory McIlroy copped a lot of grief for not playing St Jude last week but it will allow him to hit the BMW Championship fresher than anyone. McIlroy has had a sensational year, winning the Masters and the Players. While his recent form has been criticised, he finished T-19 at the US Open and T-7 at The Open with two top sixes in between. No tournament prizes distance more than this one and McIlroy ranks 2nd in Driving Distance and 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee. His putting numbers are exceptional too ranking Top 10 in Birdie or Better, Putting Average and Strokes Gained: Putting. McIlroy won this event back in 2012 with seven Top 10s since. He has finished Top 12 in the last five.
Take away a very poor season in the majors and Justin Thomas had his best year since 2022. He broke a long drought with the RBC Heritage with six more Top 10s. Thomas’ putting has been exceptional this year. He ranks 2nd in Putting Average, 4th in Birdie or Better and 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting. He also ranks Top 10 in Approaches: 175-200 Yards. Form on the correlation courses is very good including a 2nd in the Wells Fargo this year. Thomas won the BMW Championship in 2019.
Rutgers product Chris Gotterup has been the discovery of the year with a breakthrough win in the Scottish Open and a T-3 in the Open Championship. Finished Top 25 in 10 of his last 15 events. Finished Top 20 in the Corrales this year. Ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee, 10th in Driving Distance and 12th in GIR. Finds a course that suits his game perfectly.
Kurt Kitayama is one of the most underrated players on Tour and looks a hope of featuring this week. He won the 3M Open three starts back and finished T-9 in the St Jude. He ranks 3rd in Birdie or Better, 7th in Putting Average, 8th in Driving Distance and 11th in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee.
Harry Hall is an elite putter who should absolutely thrive at Caves Valley. He leads the Tour in Putting Average and Strokes Gained: Putting while he ranks 2nd in Birdie or Better and 7th in Approaches: 175-200 Yards. The Cornish product does not have a bad tournament in him, finishing Top 28 in his last 10 events.
There are four Englishmen up this week and the value is elite putter Harry Hall. Fleetwood and Rose are obviously flying but Hall’s putting will take him a long way.
A three-horse field where we take on the favourite. Pendrith profiles really well here. He ranks 3rd in Approaches: 175-200 Yards and 8th in Strokes Gained: Off Tee. Should be favourite.