It was a better day out for the seeds in the bottom half with Kenin the only casualty. Swiatek, Krejcikova and Kasatkina all went the distance with the duo of Rybakina and Navarro putting on the two most impressive performances. The former champion (Rybakina) is shaping as the one to beat in this section of the draw.
If you want to look at an example of ‘winning ugly’, just go back and watch the second set of Andreeva’s match against Bronzetti. Andreeva lost all confidence in her forehand and was almost exclusively hitting slice forehands/squash shots for a number of games. It may have been enough to get her through but it is not the level of tennis required to win Grand Slams. Moreover, it tells us that her opponent’s will be afforded the opportunity to be proactive from the baseline and decide the outcome of the match. Baptiste has the power on serve to generate free points and the weight of shot to force Andreeva behind the baseline where it is very difficult to defend from on this surface. Danger match for Andreeva!
Over total games has hit in both of Swiatek’s matches in the tournament and is a great bet for her upcoming battle with Collins. The pair faced off at the WTA1000 event in Rome in May with Collins ending a 6-match losing streak against Swiatek. The most impressive par about that result is that it came on Swiatek’s favourite surface (clay). Swiatek has never made I beyond the quarter at the All-England Club and has been knocked out at this stage in two of the last three years. Like the way that Collins has dominated on serve and have her winning at least one set in this match. Will be backing the Overs with confidence and taking Collins for the win.
Tauson won a tight three set battle in the opening round and was victorious in a crucial second set breaker against Kalinsakaya. That is the equivalent of living on the edge and is far from the level required to challenge Rybakina when she is in this type of form. The 2022 champion won 90% of 1s serve points against Sakkari – astonishing figures for women’s tennis but highlights how dominant she can be on serve. She is 2-0 lifetime against Tauson and on her best surface, I am expecting her to hit right through Tauson.
The defending champion (Krejcikova) has drawn on all her experience to win consecutive three set matches but will need more than that to topple Navarro. The American has been in scintillating form since arriving at SW19. She made light work of two-time Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova and played a flawless match to beat Kudermetova 6-1 6-2. Navarro is one of the best counterpunchers on the WTA Tour and that spells trouble for Krejcikova as she will have to hit 2-3 great shots to end a rally. Hasn’t played enough tennis at the level required to beat a player who is in career-best form. Navarro wins.
Andreeva v Baptiste: Over 20.5 games ($1.75)
Krejcikova v Navarro: Navarro -3.5 ($1.85)
Sonmez v Alexandrova: Under 18.5 games ($2.00)
Bencic v Cocciaretto: Cocciaretto +2.5 ($1.95)
Swiatek v Collins: Over 21.5 games ($1.85)
Tauson v Rybakina: Rybakina -4.5 ($1.80)
Kasatkina v Samsonova: Samsonova -3.5 ($1.75)
Bouzas Maneiro v Yastremska: Yastremska WIN ($1.45)