As has been the case over the last two years, Alcaraz is finding his best form when it matters most – in the second week of a major. Norrie had his chance to break the Alcaraz serve in the second game but after saving four break points faced in that game, the defending champion put the pedal to the metal and never looked back. He was in cruise control – winning 89% of 1st serve points and bringing out every tool in the back including the drop shot, slice backhand and backhand down the line for clean winners. Fritz needed four sets to get past Khachanov and avoided going the distance by winning a crucial fourth set tiebreaker. The American has been serving extremely well having won 65% of 2nd serve points in the tournament but he will need to overcome the best returner in tennis.
Over the course of the last 12 months, Alcaraz leads the ATP Tour in 1st serve return points won (34.9%) and return games won (31.1%). Based on those numbers and what we have seen form Alcaraz, he will be able to consistently place the Fritz serve under pressure. The scariest part about Alcaraz is that he is unplayable when at his attacking best. He has every shot in the book, can generate free points on serve and has the deadliest forehand in the game. When you combined those assets with a strong mental capacity and the confidence to produce your best in the biggest moments, you get a generational talent. Fritz would need to play the best match of his career and still need Alcaraz to have multiple lapses throughout the course of the match. Fritz might be able to sneak a tiebreaker but that will not prevent Alcaraz from covering the games handicap.
Tips
Best Bet: Alcaraz -5.5 ($1.83)
Value: Sets Alcaraz 3-1 ($3.60)
It is the semi final we all expected but both men have looked vulnerable at times in the tournament. Sinner was given a lifeline following the retirement of Dimitrov in their 4th Round clash and put to bet any notion of an elbow injury with a comfortable straight sets win over Shelton in the quarters. He was not broken in the match and was completely dominant on serve. In comparison, Djokovic was made to work hard against Sinner’s countryman Flavio Cobolli. The Italian took the opening set but Djokovic came up clutch in the closing stages of the 3rd and 4th sets. Djokovic had an awkward slip in the closing stages but that should not be taken into account here.
In the futures preview I was adamant that we would back Djokovic if he were to meet Sinner in the semi finals. The 24-time major winner played a solid match against Sinner at the French Open but failed to win a single set. My big concern for Djokovic is that he has had extreme difficulty making inroads into Sinner’s service games. Djokovic is arguably the best returner in the history of tennis yet he has lost his last four meetings against Sinner and has managed to break serve only once in the last 9 sets they have contested. It is impossible to ignore those figures – especially when you consider that Sinner has dropped serve in only 1 of his 5 matches played in the tournament. Djokovic may have defeated Sinner in consecutive years here (2022 and 2023) but two years on the players have gone in opposite directions. Sinner has won multiple majors and is the no.1 ranked player in the world while Djokovic has aged and has not added to his Grand Slam tally since the US Open in 2023. Djokovic has struggled to break serve and if he manages to win a set it will likely have to be via a tiebreaker. Sinner will cover the games handicap.
Tips
Best Bet: Sinner -3.5 ($1.80)
Value: Set 1 Score After 4 Games – Sinner 3-1 ($3.40)