The duo of Sinner and Djokovic made light work of their respective 3rd Round opponents with former finalist Marin Cilic also getting through. He faces the man that beat him at the French Open (Cobolli), only this time they meet on a surface which is tailor-made for the Croatian. It could be a huge day for the Italian contingent with three players (Sinner, Cobolli and Sonego) in action.
We have been exclusively backing either the Under or Sinner in the games handicap market throughout the tournament. Despite what seems to be a more accomplished opponent here, that formula will not be changing. Sinner has won his last four matches against Dimitrov and 9 of the last 10 sets they have contested. The Bulgarian has been able to break the Sinner serve only twice across the last 8 sets they have played and it is worth noting that Sinner is yet to drop serve in the tournament! Under 31.5 games is a phenomenally good bet.
Credit to De Minaur as he has again managed to capitalise on his ranking and make the second week of a major. The Aussie does an excellent job of ‘winning the matches he is supposed to’ but we have rarely seen him topple a big name on the biggest stage. When it comes to big names, Djokovic is one of the biggest in history, and the 24-time major winner has been in scintillating form. He has produced a bagel set in each of his last two matches and is 3-0 in the games handicap in his three matches played at The Championships. Djokvic has won all prior three meetings in straight sets with their only clash at Grand Slam level coming at the Australian Open in 2023. That match ended 6-2 6-1 6-2.
These two have made facing off at the majors an unusual trend. This will be their fourth meeting at Grand Slam level since 2023 and their third in as many majors. The big serving American has found a way to win having claimed victory in four sets at the Australian Open earlier this year and backing that up with a five set win on Sonego’s preferred surface (clay) at the French Open last month. Shelton was able to win 12 of their last 17 games in that match and those figures are difficult to ignore. He has won 46 of 48 (95%) of service games in this tournament and is yet to drop a set. Sonego went the distance against Nakashima with 4 of the 5 sets being decided by tiebreakers. Can see the opening set going the distance but it will be Shelton who is able to break serve more frequently throughout the match. The good day for betting favourites will continue.
Value Bet: Set 1 Tiebreak – YES ($2.90)
At first glance, many would be wondering why the bookies have marked this as a coin flip ($1.90 each) and do not have Cilic as a clear favourite. The reason why is because the pair met at the French Open with Cobolli dominating in a 6-2 6-1 6-3 win. That included 6 breaks of serve to none for Cilic but that result did not come as a surprise. Cilic had been playing Challenger Tour events on clay to get some tennis back in his legs and it is his results on grass in recent weeks which are of greater interest. He has claimed victory in his last 8 competitive matches on grass and has won almost 80% of 1st serve points so far at The Championships. Making inroads into the Cobolli serve will not be easy as he has won at least 69% of 2nd serve points in all three of his matches. Admittedly his competition has not been great but he is yet to drop a set in the tournament. Back Over 40.5 games with confidence.