UFC 318 Preview & Tips | Sunday 20 July

Dustin Poirier turned pro in 2009 and landed in the WEC the following year. The timing was perfect, as he transitioned into the UFC only five months later; he hasn’t left since. With over 30 bouts in the UFC, there’s a good chance Poirier has been a participant in one of your favorite fights.

A blood-and-guts warrior from the opening bell, Poirier has evolved before the eyes of the fans. Once a skinny featherweight grappler with a penchant for triangle armbars, Poirier eventually developed into one of the crispest strikers in the lightweight division.

Poirier is still a dangerous fighter in every aspect but his greatest threats are offered on the feet. When he gets a rhythm going, Poirier can devastate fighters with a variety of tactics and tempos.

Pressing forward with combinations and luring opponents into hazy exchanges is one of Poirier’s favorites, but he is also capable of kicking out legs and executing more deliberate game plans. His two emotionally charged wins over Conor McGregor stand out as clear recent evidence.

UFC 318 will be the last time Dustin Poirier steps into the cage as a participant. Leaving the sport with something to offer is a privilege kept from many competitors, but Poirier will be one of the few to exit with facilities intact. Though he retires as soon as the final bell sounds, Poirier will carry the advantage of fighting in front of a supportive New Orleans crowd.

The southern legend finds a familiar and similarly beloved opponent for his final walk. Max Holloway has a future after this weekend but is desperate to get his first win over Poirier on the third attempt. Submitted the first time and outpointed the second, it’s been over six years since their most recent meeting.

Much like his opponent this weekend, Holloway stayed active in the time since but hasn’t been wholly successful. His most recent appearance was the worst of his career; a KO loss to growing boogeyman Ilia Topuria.

The loss wasn’t all bad but the result goes in as a bitter disappointment, particularly as Holloway now finds himself in the same division as Topuria yet again. Feeling pressure for a win this weekend, I expect Holloway to put his best foot forward and lay it all on the line against his former foe.

Holloway is a tremendously talented fighter but it’s worth noting that he’s 0-4 in rematches. Holloway does best when he starts active and ramps things up as the fight goes on, but struggles to put together radically different looks against fighters that have beaten him.

There is something to be said about evolution spurred by prior defeats, but ultimately Holloway has always done best when facing new opponents. Tasked with beating those that already understand him, he begins to fall into repetitive patterns.

As vaunted a striker as Holloway is, he has historically struggled a bit with southpaws. This was the case against Poirier years ago, and developments to Poirier’s striking will only cause more trouble for Holloway.

Both men are willing and able to scrap until the final bell but I suspect these two will look to make the best of the opportunity and choose their spots a bit more wisely. Ultimately there’s nothing stopping these two from going to war and I do expect it to eventually unfold, but the opening minutes might be quieter than expected.

Wrestling is unlikely to be at the forefront of anyone’s game plan here, but I favor Dustin Poirier in a pure striking contest. The harder puncher and physically stronger man, look for Poirier to uncork his swan song and walk out of a screaming Smoothie King Center a victorious legend of the sport.

Same Game Multi: Poirier Wins By KO/TKO or Submission + Poirier 70+ Significant Strikes Landed

6-3 in the UFC across nearly six years in the organization, Roman Kopylov has had a surprising run that now sees him positioned for contention. His first two bouts in the UFC were losses and quickly dampened optimism on the Russian but he has gone 6-1 since to rekindle those flames.

The baby-faced assassin is a powerful striker at his core but has showcased a bit of versatility, as well. Five takedowns helped him secure a win over Cesar Almeida while a devastating head kick finished Chris Curtis in the final seconds of their bout.

Kopylov’s developments as an MMA fighter have been good to see but ultimately he will have to lean on striking prowess to get his hand raised this weekend. A brutal kicker and active fighter on the feet, Kopylov offers death by a thousand cuts.

Though he isn’t the most mobile or agile fighter in the division, he has a refined sense of distance and controls space effectively. Long rear kicks from the southpaw keep opponents worn down on the outside, but he does own sharp enough boxing to threaten fighters at close range.

Despite the highlight reel he picked up in his last fight, Kopylov generally trends a bit less dramatically. He isn’t a soft puncher by any means but Kopylov rarely ends things in the first round, preferring to bide his time, pick his spots, and find his rhythm before ramping up.

His demonstrated gas tank will aid him greatly against a powerful but inconsistent foe in Paulo Costa. Notable for his social media presence as well as his efforts inside the cage, Costa is in dire need of a win after going 1-4 in his last five – not including at least six bouts falling through in between.

Costa competed twice in 2024 and helped shed some of the inactivity that has been plaguing him. Unfortunately, both fights went against him in what were unimpressive showings.

The Brazilian powerhouse is well-known as one of the most dangerous strikers in the division, but that status has applied for exceptionally limited windows of time. Costa shows a flash of the strength and aggression that minted his career, but it fades as quickly as it appeared.

At this point, Costa’s back is up against the wall. He has failed to keep up with the activity of his opponents in or out of the cage and the results speak for themselves. Costa has insisted he will be aggressive for this contest, but reigniting those flames to the same intensity is a tall task once they’ve been quenched.

Costa simply doesn’t look like the kind of fighter who will plow forward and throw borderline reckless punches like he used to. Defensive mistakes have been taken advantage of and fatigue has driven Costa to low places as a fighter. Now, it looks like Costa will do anything to avoid those pitfalls again.

If Costa shows up the same man as he has in recent outings, there will be tense moments but ultimately a verdict tipping towards Kopylov. The more consistent and reliable fighter at this point, look for the Russian to keep things on the outside for as long as possible, pile up points, and have his hand raised.

With nearly 30 bouts in the UFC alone and having already competed three times this year, Kevin Holland is maintaining the schedule of activity that he said he would. 2-1 this year, Holland kicked things off with a tough loss to Reinier de Ridder that has aged well. Most recently, Holland closed the show on fellow veteran Vicente Luque with an excellent anaconda choke.

Holland is finding his rhythm as he establishes himself as a dedicated welterweight. Having the brunt of his failures occur at middleweight has made it starkly obvious that Holland has dramatically better chances as a contender in the lower weight class.

Though his takedown defense continues to be a bit of a sore spot, Holland is a dangerous and capable fighter anywhere else. His pure grappling ability is simply underrated; aside from strong efforts against powerful middleweight maulers, he has actually notched some impressive wins over high level grapplers at welterweight.

Where Holland does his best work is on the feet, though. Holland can be consistently inconsistent but is beginning to look like the fighter he’s always been capable of being. Heavy hands, long arms, and whipping offensive boxing have been powerful tools for Holland over the years.

As the rest of his game picks up, Holland is positioning himself for a solid win stretch and a potential run at ranked fighters. First, he’ll need to clear out another road warrior on a two-fight win streak of his own.

Daniel Rodriguez ended last year with a split decision win over Alex Morono but managed a more decisive win over Santiago Ponzinibbio two months ago. 2-3 in his last five, Rodriguez has struggled to find solid ground in recent years but he deserves credit for taking on notable opposition like Ian Machado Garry and Kevin Gastelum.

Rodriguez has only been in the UFC since 2020 but feels like a divisional mainstay. He has racked up a shocking amount of experience in that time, competing 13 times and squaring off with a multitude of recognizable veterans.

At his best, Rodriguez offers active boxing coupled with durability and physicality to pad the gaps. He isn’t a smothering wrestler or a serpentine grappler but has maintained passable takedown defense and generally proven himself a scrappy lad willing to try wherever he needs to.

A gritty fighter with a fairly rough-and-tumble career, Rodriguez is now 38-years-old and showing signs of slowing down. He isn’t one to fold up and quit, but his punch resistance is waning and his timing isn’t getting any better.

The slower fighter on what looks to be a physical downswing, Daniel Rodriguez will have his hands full just surviving the distance. Motivation and discipline have always been fleeting characteristics for Holland but he appears to be reigning it in. I expect that to culminate in another successful result with Holland ending things around the halfway mark.

11-8 in the UFC, Dan Ige is a scrappy competitor down to his final cell. Notably stepping up on 1-day notice to take on Diego Lopes (nearly stopping the bigger man in the final round), Ige has cemented himself as a hardcore fighter time and time again.

He entered the UFC conducting himself like a veteran and has only grown in popularity and skill as the years piled on. Willing to take on practically anyone in the division, Ige has compiled an impressive resume and faced down a wide spectrum of styles.

Most recently, 5’7” (170cm) Ige proved his versatility again as he chopped down 6’2” (189cm) Sean Woodson and finished in the third round. A striking clinic from Ige, the win was not only a mild upset but goes a long way towards proving the 33-year-old still has plenty left to offer.

On the other end of the cage will be a man looking to prove the same. A long championship career set the legacy of Patricio Freire, better known as Pitbull. A predictably tenacious fighter, Pitbull tallied 30 bouts in Bellator with a final record of 24-6.

Pitbull enjoyed over a decade of consistent success but recent years have seen him slipping. 1-3 in his last four, Pitbull has failed to deploy the same kind of aggression, offense, or dynamism that propelled his career.

That lone victory, a third-round finish over Jeremy Kennedy last year, was not an impressive performance minute-to-minute. Pitbull has looked comparably listless and gun-shy in recent appearances, including his UFC debut earlier this year.

Outpointed over fifteen minutes by Yair Rodriguez and losing every round in the process, Pitbull will have one more chance to get a critical win this weekend. The underdog for good reason, Pitbull will need to display vintage counter-punching and timing to get his hand raised.

Despite both men owning tumultuous and exciting careers, it is Dan Ige who carries momentum into this contest. Intent on ending things before the final bell and asserting his advantages whenever possible, Ige is trending to make a real run at contention.

Pitbull is on the other end of the spectrum, vying to maintain relevancy in a fast-moving featherweight division. At 38-years-old, it appears we’ve seen the best of Pitbull and I don’t expect that to be subverted this weekend.

Ige is a dogged fighter and won’t be afraid of bringing it to Pitbull. I expect this fight to bring the best out of what the Brazilian has left, but Ige should ultimately overwhelm and break down the former Bellator champion.

3-1 in his last four, Daniel Zellhuber also picked up bonuses in his last three appearances. His most recent outing saw him lose a split decision to Esteban Ribovics but the 15 minutes they put in were some of the best of the year.

Zellhuber’s stock didn’t drop much as a result of the brutal skirmish and this weekend’s matchmaking is proof the organization feels similarly. The 26-year-old requested this bout on multiple occasions, provoking Johnson with social posts highlighting his KO losses.

A native of Mexico, Zellhuber is a fellow striker who believes he can put Johnson to sleep. That stands to reason as Zellhuber has already proven himself a physically powerful and technically sharp fighter. The durability and heart he has exhibited across five UFC bouts bode well for his chances against the savvy Michael Johnson.

Infamous in his own right, Johnson has one of the wildest and somehow elite resumes in the sport. Wins over the likes of Edson Barboza and Dustin Poirier show what Johnson is capable of at his best, but defeats to men like Diego Ferreira and Stevie Ray show his variable his performances can be.

A swift boxer with some of the fastest hands in the division, Johnson is shockingly dangerous even at 39-years-old. His timing isn’t what it used to be but he demands respect with the speed and power he carries.

The agile veteran hasn’t missed too many steps offensively but there is cause for concern when it comes to his punch resistance. Historically a very durable fighter, Johnson has been getting hurt far more frequently, not to mention his devastating KO loss to Ferreira in 2023.

Once upon a time, this kind of fight would be one Johnson relishes. Offensive powerful but defensively liable was always an attractive match-up for Johnson, but the physical disadvantages and opposing career trajectories limit my belief in the American.

Johnson may well end up looking like the quicker fighter at UFC 318 but I am doubtful he will put together enough offense to tip the scales. Furthermore, it’s unlikely he can avoid the brunt of Zellhuber’s long, thudding offense all long.

The younger man should have his way here. Piecing up Johnson from the outside will win Zellhuber minutes but I expect him to set his feet and close the show before the final bell.